Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Broad troughing will continue across the eastern CONUS as we head toward late week, however no notable shortwaves embedded within for the near future. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in and traverses the region through tonight. The end result of this pattern will be dry and cool conditions. Expect another day of well below normal temperatures as highs only peak in the low to mid 60s. We will see plenty of sunshine, though so that should help the feel a little.

The main focus will be just how cool we get later tonight under good radiational cooling conditions. Especially focused across our eastern CWA where temps should drop into the upper 30s and low 40s closer to the center of the surface high. Really can't rule out some mid 30s in some of our coolest spots given low dew points and a good chance to completely decouple from BL flow. Will be giving some consideration to a possible Frost Advisory headline for portions of our eastern CWA given how late in the season we have gotten. Only expect frost to be patchy in nature for the coldest areas, but early May frost potential carries a bit more weight than a month or so ago. 07/00z HRRR probs of temps into the mid 30s have patchy areas of 30-40% toward the I-75 corridor.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Friday...

Surface high pressure shifts east from the central Appalachians to the mid Atlantic Coast on Friday. Meanwhile, unremarkable zonal flow aloft holds over our area. Still enough influence from high pressure to keep us dry through Friday, and after a chilly start we'll get a bit of a boost in temps thanks to some steady southerly flow on the western fringes of the surface high. We'll still fall a little short of normal temps for this time of year, but highs should reach the low to mid 70s under mostly to partly sunny skies.

Friday Night - Saturday Morning...

A shortwave looks to rotate through our region on Friday night into early Saturday morning, and will bring scattered to numerous showers and a few storms across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
A little less certainty in coverage across southern KY as it will be further removed from the best forcing. Still, will include some isolated to widely scattered coverage down there for now. This system will have a pretty favorable overall sheer profile, however it doesn't look there will be any instability to work with. Dew points only look to recover to the upper 40s and low 50s as this system is passing on Friday night, so this adds confidence in the lack of any surface based instability. Will continue to monitor trends, but overall not expecting any issues. Any lingering showers or storms should exit our NE CWA shortly after sunrise on Saturday.

The Rest of Saturday...

The rest of Saturday should trend dry as we sit in the subsident wake of the departing shortwave. Skies should become mostly sunny through the afternoon with temperatures recovering to near normal in the mid and upper 70s. Saturday night also looks dry, although the "walls" will be closing in as two separate shortwaves begin to bring some influence to our region toward dawn on Sunday.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

By Sunday, broad troughing will dominate over the eastern half to two-thirds of the CONUS. Focus will be on a couple of individual shortwaves embedded within this parent trough, specifically on the timing/placement of their phase. The lead southern stream shortwave will be over the Gulf Coast states on Sunday, and will have little effect on our region outside of perhaps a bit moisture contribution from the northern fringes of its plume. The secondary and trailing shortwave looks to eject out of the central Plains into the mid Mississippi River Valley on Sunday, and this will occur as a weak cold front trailing from an eastern Canada system works through our area.

Overall, the timing of the frontal passage looks fairly early in the day on Sunday, and doesn't seem to line up with an also disjointed deep layer shear profile. Plenty of deep layer speed shear in the mid to upper levels as an 80-90 knot impulse ejects out of the Plains, however the low level jet will already be long gone by sunrise Sunday, so very little low level support. As a result, you may get some pretty impressive 0-6 or 0-8 km deep layer shear values, but the lack of low level support raises some red flags for any organized updrafts. In addition, instability values don't currently look that great with only a few hundred J/KG through the day, some of which may be post frontal. For context on the instability, 06/12z LREF probs only give a 10-30% chance of more than 500 J/KG of instability during the day.

Given the complexity of this setup there could still be a trend toward a more robust threat if everything lines up, but right now that doesn't appear to be the case. One scenario that could contribute to that more robust threat would be an earlier phase of the two systems, but that also looks less likely than it did 24 hours ago, and the weight of the data supports the slower/farther east phase. Will continue to monitor, but right now not as impressed with any strong to severe storm chances for Sunday.

Monday - Wednesday...

The trough axis and frontal boundary are long through the area by sunrise Monday, and surface high pressure will be building in by this time. As a result, look for a return to dry conditions for Monday and at least the first part of Tuesday. Another shortwave and its associated surface low may then track through the Great Lakes region Tuesday evening into Wednesday. This feature may bring another round of showers and storms, but timing/placement are still lower confidence for now. Below normal temps in the 65 to 70 degree range on Monday will give way to temps trending milder into mid week. By Wednesday, temps are expected to return near normal in the 75 to 80 degree range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR prevails through this forecast cycle as surface high pressure takes control of the area. A few mid to high clouds will be around at times, but mostly sunny skies are expected for later today. Look for calm or light NNW to NNE winds this morning, and then more steady NW winds this afternoon between 5 and 10 mph. Perhaps a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph at LEX.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.