Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low stratus continues to blanket much of SW Kansas east of Highway 83. It is forecast that the cloud cover will persist through the overnight and well into the morning. Fog development is also expected to develop overnight dropping visibilities significantly. Ensembles are less confident in the density and coverage of the fog, but models hold isolated ares of Dense Fog.
Due to these uncertainties, a Dense Fog Advisory is not currently in effect. However, the situation will be monitored closely and one may be warranted if a denser regime of fog manifests.

Also tonight, CAMs hold steady in convection around Midnight. With some variation, models have convection initiating in the far SE counties of the CWA at around 5-6Z. Storms that are able to develop are expected to be quite elevated in nature over the much cooler boundary layer. While almost no surface CAPE is present, RAP forecast soundings have around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at Medicine Lodge. SPC mesoanalysis currently places that CAPE gradient east of there, and as such it would not be too surprising if most or all of the convection misses the area to the east. That said, despite being very limited in scope and coverage, severe hail can not be ruled out. The SPC has a 5% risk area over a line from Clark county to Pratt county and eastward. Enough deep layer shear is depicted by models (50kt at 0-6km and 75kt at 0-8km) to promote strong updrafts capable of producing hail if the initiation and CAPE line up and are present. If these storms materialize under the current forecast, the convection will last until around 6am before moving eastward out of the CWA

Wednesday will be dry and warm up once the fog and cloud cover erodes. Current forecasted highs are in the 60s with light (<10 mph)
winds. The Wednesday/Thursday overnight may see fog develop again similar to tonight. A rough timetable of development around midnight and lasting until 10 AM Thursday. Current trends from short range models lean that it will be denser and more widespread than tonight, but much more uncertainty relies on tonights convection, tomorrows cloud cover, and tomorrows warmup. Keep an eye out for updates, products, and take proper precautions for any fog tonight or tomorrow night.

The main focus of the forecast is the severe weather threat on Thursday. Similar to tonight hail is the primary threat with SPC giving SW Kansas a 5-15% chance for severe hail. Unlike tonight, the SPC can not rule out a weak tornado or isolated severe wind gusts.
Ensembles have a mid-level trough sweeping down into the Four Corners region. Some uncertainty remains on the setup of the dryline placement. Current ensembles have the sharp gradient setting up between the KS/CO border and highway 83. Areas east of the gradient are expected to have enough moisture in the environment for thunderstorm development. Along with the dryline, CAPE/CIN also presents a stumbling block. The RAP and NAMNST have a potent amount of CIN that stifles initiation. Similar to tonight, enough shear and CAPE aloft for higher-based storms.
This would mitigate nearly the entire tornado threat. With the fog forecast in the morning, it will be worth monitoring how quickly and how warm it will get prior to initiation. Ensembles have storms developing around 6pm and exiting the CWA by around midnight.

Thursday and Friday are expected to see some marginal fire weather risk. Areas that are on the west side of the dryline both days may see relative humidity minimums at around 15-20% in far SW Kansas, although this may change fairly significantly with the dryline placement. Winds in the afternoons may reach 25-30 mph with even stronger gusts. As a result, conditions will need to be monitored as the weather system and its' impacts come into focus.

Friday has another chance for severe weather. So much temporal uncertainty is present that outside of general challenges, it is hard to present a detailed prognosis. The most pressing concern is the dryline placement. Currently, ensembles have it along highway 281. If this comes to fruition, nearly all potential would be to the east of the CWA That said if it shifts westward even somewhat, the eastern counties may see severe weather. Even if that occurs, the storms will likely be early enough in their development that the severe weather risk is marginal in at all. In the absolute most favorable case where strong storms can form and strengthen quickly, all hazards are possible.

Highs Saturday behind the system are forecast to be much cooler down into the 50s, before warming up into next week with highs potentially reaching and exceeding 80 degrees. Quiet weather is forecast this weekend with no headlines currently anticipated.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Lowered flight conditions are forecast for all sites overnight.
Lowered ceilings are already present at all sites with DDC and GCK already at 1 1/2 and 1/4 miles respectively with very low ceilings at VLIFR conditions. DDC fog is expected to become more dense, but how dense is still uncertain. The fog is not expected to reach LBL, but lowered ceilings will still lower flight conditions. HYS is forecast to develop fog during the overnight, but exact timing and density also holds some uncertainty. Around 14-15Z, skies and fog will clear returning VFR conditions to all sites. Light (<10 KTs)
and primarily variable winds are forecast for the entire period. Fog may develop tomorrow night, but most if not all is expected outside the current TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.