SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Early morning satellite shows partly to mostly cloudy skies over western KY/southern IN with clear to partly cloudy skies over eastern KY. Temperatures across the region were generally in the upper 60s to around 70 in the I-65 corridor and in the mid 60s out toward the I-75 corridor. Cooler temps were noted across our northeast sections where readings were in the upper 50s to lower 60s under clear skies. For the remainder of the overnight, no significant weather is expected. Some patchy to locally dense fog will be possible over the southern half of Kentucky, especially where rain fell Friday afternoon. This fog should quickly mix out after sunrise.

For today, diffuse frontal boundary will continue to bisect the region. The boundary is easily noted by looking at the dewpoint gradient across the region. Mid-upper 50s dewpoints were noted across northern/northeastern KY while dewpoints remained in the upper 60s to near 70 south of the Cumberland Parkway. Upper ridge axis is forecast to shift eastward today and winds will shift from the NE to the SE this afternoon and then become southwest later in the day. We'll start to get into a return flow pattern later today with moisture pooling along the MS river towards the OH river confluence. As moisture pools this afternoon, we could see another round of scattered showers/storms. Best chances continue to look along and west of the I-165 corridor. Wind fields remain quite weak, so any storm will be a slow mover will produce torrential rainfall at times. We're likely to see a gradient of cloudiness across the region as well with clearer skies east of the I-65 corridor with more clouds out across our west/southwest. This will result in a gradient of temps for this afternoon with highs in the west/southwest only warming into the mid 80s. Out east of I-65, highs will likely top out in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots possibly touching 90.

For tonight, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected across the region. As the upper ridge axis continues to shift eastward, height falls will spread eastward as upper level shortwave trough axis moves in from the west. We'll likely see the nocturnal low-level jet increase tonight and with some weak isentropic lift, scattered showers and a few storms will be possible in areas west of I-65.
Overnight lows will range from the mid-upper 60s over the Bluegrass region to the upper 60s/lower 70s in the I-65 corridor and points west.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Sunday - Monday... Narrow ridging will move off to the northeast of the region and troughing will once again enter from the west.
Southwesterly flow will transport moisture into the region and as far north as the upper Midwest. PWAT values will be within 2-2.25 inches within a deeply saturated column. Troughing and CVA will allow for scattered to widespread showers and storms Sunday. Not expecting severe weather at this time due to the weakly sheared environment, but wouldn't rule out gusty winds with stronger storms.
Flooding is the main concern with a tall, skinny CAPE profile and slow moving storms. On Monday, another weaker shortwave may form, further amplifying the larger trough. This will result in more scattered to widespread showers and storms Monday afternoon-evening.

Tuesday - Late Next Week... Troughing will begin to push off to the east as broad high pressure builds over the south-central CONUS. As troughing exits, scattered-widespread precip chances will follow.
The Ohio Valley will be positioned on the periphery of this broad ridging and within northwesterly flow. Through the end of the week, shortwaves will travel along the periphery of the ridge each day.
Southwesterly surface flow will keep moisture in the region. Dew points will be in the mid 70s and PWAT values near 1.75 inches.
Troughing and present moisture will lead to increased chances for showers and storms each day. Shear looks weak, therefore, organized severe conditions are limited to mostly summertime convection.

With dew points in the mid 70s and temperatures warming each day next week into the low 90s, heat indices will likely be around 100F.
Very muggy conditions expected by mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Patchy dense fog will be seen early in the period at KBWG, but this should mix out between 27/12-13Z. Otherwise, only high clouds will stream across the region today with winds starting off out of the northeast and then shifting to the southeast by late morning into the afternoon. Some isolated-scattered convection may fire once again across southern KY which could impact KBWG.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.