Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozora, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have continued to impact eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois early this afternoon.
These storms have stayed on the weaker side so far, with only a few reports of (very) small hail. The RAP/HRRR have had trouble over- initializing (surface based) instability in southeast Missouri, which casts doubts on how much of this will actually make it into our southeast Missouri counties. It does seem likely however that at least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will get into Reynolds/Iron/Madison counties and vicinity late this afternoon/early this evening. We will have to keep an eye on how far east the steadier showers/weaker thunderstorms gets into that area over the next couple of hours. If that progresses through, that should be enough to dampen the surface- based instability sufficiently to lessen the severe threat (outside of potentially small to marginally severe hail). However, if that area remains largely precipitation free, the combination of 1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-45 knots of effective shear and an increasing low- level jet could yield some severe thunderstorms. Supercells and multicell clusters would be possible in this scenario, capable of large hail and a tornado or two until 9 PM. The tornadic potential increasing after sunset would be concurrent with the aforementioned low-level jet strengthening and 0-1 km shear/helicity climbing.

At the very least, widespread (elevated) showers and thunderstorms should develop on the nose of the low-level jet early tonight. There remains some uncertainty as to the favored axis for this activity, but consensus points toward southeast Missouri northeast into south- central Illinois. While most of that area has not seen significant rainfall thus far, there are some pockets in southern Crawford/Washington and over into Fayette (IL) that have received 1- 2+" of rain. These local areas will be more prone to flash flooding tonight if the axis sets up over these areas. Rainfall rates tonight may be high at times given anomalously high precipitable water values (~1.25"; >95th percentile of climatology) and tall/thin CAPE profiles. Some CAM guidance also highlights at least the potential for some training into the early overnight hours. The 24-hr LPMM on the 12Z HRRR ending early Thursday morning shows some stripes of 1- 2", with some locally higher amounts of around 3". This axis is centered just southeast of our counties, but if it ends up being further northwest and overlaps with some of the same areas that have had some localized higher totals today mentioned above, there may be some pockets of flash flooding.

The stronger low-level moisture convergence quickly moves of to the northeast late tonight, so both the coverage and intensity of rain should decrease. Lingering showers are then expected to move out of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois by mid/late morning. For the rest of the day, look for dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 60s. Exactly how warm it will be is uncertain due to low clouds/stratus. If the stratus holds on longer than currently forecast, high temperatures may be at least a few degrees too warm.

Gosselin

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

(Thursday Night - Friday Night)

A subtle surface warm front will lift north Thursday evening. Some isolated/widely scattered weak convection may accompany this boundary, but the better chances are later on in the night. This is when low-level moisture convergence strengthens and a midlevel impulse moves across the mid-Missouri Valley. Much of this activity looks to stay to our northwest, but may clip portions of northeast Missouri.

There may be a remnant MCV moving northeast toward the Upper Midwest Friday morning, though not sure this feature even if it does end up existing would have any impacts across our region. The expectation is for the daylight hours at least on Friday to stay dry, with increasing temperatures. Highs well into the 70s are forecast areawide, with some spots topping out near 80 possible.

Attention will then turn westward and thunderstorms that should initiate on a cold front by Friday evening. While there is still some uncertainty with the exact timing, even faster guidance is just nearing the far northwest corner of Missouri 0000 UTC Saturday. By 0600 UTC, the boundary is likely to be entering parts of central/northeast Missouri and then into far eastern Missouri/western Illinois ~1200 UTC. Probabilities on the EPS for MUCAPE >500 J/kg are generally in the 40-60% ahead of the front.
Some type of linear structure is likely to at least attempt to enter the northwestern CWA around 0600 UTC Saturday, but may tend to weaken with eastward extent/time. How fast this occurs at this time range is uncertain.

(Saturday - Next Wednesday)

The weekend looks dry and seasonably warm as a slow-moving area of surface high pressure works its way across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs mostly in the 60s are forecast with light winds and some afternoon sunshine.

Monday is also expected to be dry, but a warming trend will take hold as return flow commences around the departing surface high.
Highs are forecast to warm back up into the mid to upper 70s, or about 20-25+ degrees above normal for the date.

A return to a more active pattern is expected midweek, but details are highly uncertain. There is both a northern stream and a southern stream shortwave to deal with, and how they interact (or don't) are open question marks. Regarding the southern wave, it may also get cutoff in the desert southwest. When it ejects (and where) are highly uncertain. Two of the clusters of the 500-hPa pattern keep the low over the desert southwest. Regardless, it would seem like the northern stream shortwave should help send a cold front down into our area sometime midweek, bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, and potentially the chance for severe weather as well.

Gosselin

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase through the evening and into the early overnight hours, mainly impacting the St. Louis metro terminals. Low stratus and areas of fog will also be prevalent areawide through tonight before conditions improve gradually Thursday morning.

Gosselin

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.