Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozora, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Confidence continues to decrease in initiation of thunderstorms across the CWA this afternoon and evening with some of the latest CAMs have thunderstorms remain outside of the CWA and others showing sparse coverage. This factor is mainly owing to the CWA being between areas of large-scale ascent (upper-level trough to the north and an MCV to the south), weak low-level convergence/forcing, and a weak capping inversion that may not be overcome. That being said, an isolated thunderstorm or two is still possible across south- central/southwestern IL and southeastern MO this evening as a weak cold front consolidates with a pre-frontal trough across that area, providing a window of greater low-level convergence. With 20 to 25 kt of deep-layer wind shear, high DCAPE/"inverted-V" sounding signatures, and 1500 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE; one of these thunderstorms could briefly become strong to severe with damaging winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Behind the front, a surface anticyclone will expand into the Mid- Mississippi River Valley Thursday and then arrive on Friday, accompanied by a seasonably cool and dry airmass (850-hPa temperatures and PW around the 25th climatological percentile)
infiltrating the CWA This airmass will translate to high temperatures in the low to mid-80s F, low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid-60s F, and lower humidity through Saturday morning.
Efficient nighttime radiational cooling will also promote fog development each night/morning, predominantly in river valleys as a combination of radiation and steam fog.

The surface anticyclone will quickly depart to the Great Lakes on Saturday as it follows the most vigorous subsidence leading an upper- level ridge amplifying and shifting into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This process will facilitate southwesterly low-level flow/WAA with 850-hPa temperatures surging to around 21 to 23 C (above 95th climatological percentile) by Sunday, persisting into next week. With full sunshine, these 850-hPa temperatures would likely yield widespread high temperatures in the 90s F, including favorable southwesterly flow and downslope warming off the Ozark Plateau potentially resulting in values even approaching 100 F in central MO and the St. Louis metro. Fortunately, dewpoints/humidity will at least initially be lower than previous heatwaves we have seen so far this summer but probabilities of 100+ F heat index values do increase each day in response to a slow increase in humidity/dewpoints. The details of the upper-level wave pattern next week are still not uncertain but there has been an underlying trend toward a stronger, more persistent ridge across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. As such, confidence is increasing in a longer duration of heat through mid-next week. It is worth noting that there is a still a preferred corridor for episodic showers and thunderstorms around the periphery of the ridge, but if this trend holds there is less concern for the CWA to be impacted by showers and thunderstorms aside from far northern parts of northeastern MO and west-central IL through Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Light northerly surface winds have become calm and variable in river valley locations with the rest of the area expected to follow suite throughout the night. These calm winds along with a mostly clear sky will promote efficient radiational cooling and the development of fog tonight, especially in river valley locations. Impacts from fog are most likely at KSUS/KCPS/KJEF in the form of MVFR/IFR visibilities. Pockets of denser fog leading to lower visibilities are possible, but with low certainty on where that is favored, have opted to keep mention of MVFR/IFR impacts only for now. Conditions are expected to improve shortly after sunrise with all terminals remaining dry and VFR on Thursday under light northerly winds.

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.