Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuba, MO
July 27, 2024 7:09 AM CDT (12:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 11:03 PM Moonset 12:15 PM |
FXUS63 KLSX 271120 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 620 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms likely today, especially along and south of I-70. Additional rounds possible tonight through Sunday. Still have the potential for localized heavy downpours at times.
- Hot weather returns next week, especially Tuesday through Thursday, with heat index values 100-105 each day. Chances of showers and storms may bring local heat relief.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Upper level trough is currently centered over NE OK/NW AR early this morning and will continue to slowly lift northward today.
Ahead of the trough, low level flow over the region will veer to the south with increasing moisture as PWATs rise to 2"+ by this afternoon, especially over portions of southeast/east central MO and southern IL. As a series of shortwaves associated with the trough move across the area today through Sunday, will see several rounds of showers and storms. As for instability, the latest HRRR ensembles only have a 30 to 50 percent probability of surface based CAPEs greater than 1500 J/kg, which is much lower than previous runs. So confidence in more widespread convective activity is lower. Otherwise, storms that do form will have the potential for localized heavy downpours with minor flooding issues due to the weak steering flow aloft. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover and precipitation, in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
With loss of daytime heating will see activity diminish a bit this evening. On Sunday, despite a stronger shortwave lifting northward through the region and slightly higher MU CAPEs (between 1500-2000 J/kg) as well as PWATs 2"+, especially along and east of Mississippi River, confidence is low for any strong to severe storms. However, still have the potential for localized heavy downpours with minor flooding issues due to the weak steering flow aloft just like today.
As for highs on Sunday, they will be a bit below normal in the 80s, though portions of central/northeast Missouri could be a bit warmer due to lower chances of precipitation and less cloud cover.
Byrd
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
By Monday, the upper level ridge over the Western CONUS will begin sliding to the east towards the forecast area. However, expect a few additional rounds of showers and storms on Monday as shortwaves rotate around the backside of the trough as it slides off to the east into the Ohio Valley. A few of the latest deterministic as well as ensembles have a low level jet (30-40kt) developing Sunday night over eastern KS/western MO with storms developing on the nose of the jet across southwestern IA. Then as the low level jet veers overnight, the activity slides southeast into northeast MO and west central IL. There is a lot of uncertainty about whether this will either stabilize the atmosphere in this area or setup for a round of strong to severe storms during the day on Monday. So for now will not message any strong to severe threat at this time.
Otherwise, the main issue beyond Monday will be the warm up across the region that begins in earnest by Tuesday. So even though we will not be directly under the main ridge axis, we will experience a decent warm up with highs in the low to mid 90s by Tuesday, then into the mid 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. This combined with dewpoints in the 70s, will create heat index values between 100 and 105 beginning on Tuesday. However, we will have the potential for ridge runners as thunderstorms track around the periphery of the ridge. So even though rain chances will be on the low side each day, if and where these storms do occur local heat relief is likely, but would see conditions rebound once the precipitation exits.
Beyond Thursday, the trend is for the ridge to retrograde to the west pulling the core of the heat westward with it.
Byrd
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Showers and storms along the MO/AR border will continue to spread northward today, moving into TAF sites along I-70 corridor after 19z Saturday. With uncertainty on coverage, just kept vicinity thunderstorm mention for now. Activity will diminish by early evening over central MO. Otherwise, kept vicinity shower and vicinity thunderstorm mention for St. Louis metro area TAFs after 01z Sunday. The rain should reach KUIN by 03z Sunday, so added vicinity shower or thunderstorm mention through end of forecast period. By late tonight (07z-08z Sunday), VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR and stay that way through the remainder of the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will pickup from the east to southeast this morning then become light and variable by this evening.
Byrd
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 620 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms likely today, especially along and south of I-70. Additional rounds possible tonight through Sunday. Still have the potential for localized heavy downpours at times.
- Hot weather returns next week, especially Tuesday through Thursday, with heat index values 100-105 each day. Chances of showers and storms may bring local heat relief.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Upper level trough is currently centered over NE OK/NW AR early this morning and will continue to slowly lift northward today.
Ahead of the trough, low level flow over the region will veer to the south with increasing moisture as PWATs rise to 2"+ by this afternoon, especially over portions of southeast/east central MO and southern IL. As a series of shortwaves associated with the trough move across the area today through Sunday, will see several rounds of showers and storms. As for instability, the latest HRRR ensembles only have a 30 to 50 percent probability of surface based CAPEs greater than 1500 J/kg, which is much lower than previous runs. So confidence in more widespread convective activity is lower. Otherwise, storms that do form will have the potential for localized heavy downpours with minor flooding issues due to the weak steering flow aloft. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover and precipitation, in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
With loss of daytime heating will see activity diminish a bit this evening. On Sunday, despite a stronger shortwave lifting northward through the region and slightly higher MU CAPEs (between 1500-2000 J/kg) as well as PWATs 2"+, especially along and east of Mississippi River, confidence is low for any strong to severe storms. However, still have the potential for localized heavy downpours with minor flooding issues due to the weak steering flow aloft just like today.
As for highs on Sunday, they will be a bit below normal in the 80s, though portions of central/northeast Missouri could be a bit warmer due to lower chances of precipitation and less cloud cover.
Byrd
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
By Monday, the upper level ridge over the Western CONUS will begin sliding to the east towards the forecast area. However, expect a few additional rounds of showers and storms on Monday as shortwaves rotate around the backside of the trough as it slides off to the east into the Ohio Valley. A few of the latest deterministic as well as ensembles have a low level jet (30-40kt) developing Sunday night over eastern KS/western MO with storms developing on the nose of the jet across southwestern IA. Then as the low level jet veers overnight, the activity slides southeast into northeast MO and west central IL. There is a lot of uncertainty about whether this will either stabilize the atmosphere in this area or setup for a round of strong to severe storms during the day on Monday. So for now will not message any strong to severe threat at this time.
Otherwise, the main issue beyond Monday will be the warm up across the region that begins in earnest by Tuesday. So even though we will not be directly under the main ridge axis, we will experience a decent warm up with highs in the low to mid 90s by Tuesday, then into the mid 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. This combined with dewpoints in the 70s, will create heat index values between 100 and 105 beginning on Tuesday. However, we will have the potential for ridge runners as thunderstorms track around the periphery of the ridge. So even though rain chances will be on the low side each day, if and where these storms do occur local heat relief is likely, but would see conditions rebound once the precipitation exits.
Beyond Thursday, the trend is for the ridge to retrograde to the west pulling the core of the heat westward with it.
Byrd
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Showers and storms along the MO/AR border will continue to spread northward today, moving into TAF sites along I-70 corridor after 19z Saturday. With uncertainty on coverage, just kept vicinity thunderstorm mention for now. Activity will diminish by early evening over central MO. Otherwise, kept vicinity shower and vicinity thunderstorm mention for St. Louis metro area TAFs after 01z Sunday. The rain should reach KUIN by 03z Sunday, so added vicinity shower or thunderstorm mention through end of forecast period. By late tonight (07z-08z Sunday), VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR and stay that way through the remainder of the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will pickup from the east to southeast this morning then become light and variable by this evening.
Byrd
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KVIH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVIH
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVIH
Wind History graph: VIH
(wind in knots)
St. Louis, MO,
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