DISCUSSION
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Current satellite water vapor imagery indicates a positively-tilted trough situated over the Red River Valley while a ridge continues to build over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is draped from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Atlantic region. A dryline stretching across the High Plains continues to touch off showers and storms across the Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle.

A weak upper-level trough will make its way northward today, providing sufficient forcing for scattered afternoon showers and storms mainly in southeast Kansas. Moderate instability coupled with seasonable shear should inhibit chances for widespread severe weather, though stronger storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times. Additionally, a handful of showers and storms could find their way into central and north-central Kansas late Saturday night. However, confidence in coverage remains low at this time, so PoPs are kept low in lieu of this uncertainty.

Additional shortwave energy will enter the region beginning Sunday afternoon/evening, providing the forcing for additional showers and storms through the late evening and overnight hours on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. At this time, coverage appears to be focused in north-central, central, and northeast Kansas. Moderate instability coupled with increasing deep-layer shear may support a few strong to severe storms. This active evening/nocturnal pattern will look to continue through the end of the week per the long-range deterministic model suite.

Despite these opportunities for precipitation, dangerous heat is still anticipated for central and eastern Kansas as the upper ridge settles in early in the week. Widespread high temperatures exceeding 100 degrees are expected to hold over the area through at least Thursday, with heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees during the afternoon and evening hours. Therefore, heat headlines will likely be needed Monday through Wednesday/Thursday with later forecast issuances. Northwest flow aloft looks to return late in the week, which should allow for a break in the heat by next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions expected thru the forecast valid period along with southerly component winds which will become diurnally gusty across central Kansas from late morning thru this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure aloft migrating northward across far eastern Kansas and Missouri may also help promote isolated showers and storms which could affect the KCNU terminal later today.

KED

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.