DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Early this morning a deep upper level trough was located across central Canada with a positive tilt upper level trough extending southwest across the Pacific Northwest. A southern stream upper level trough was located across central CA. A broad upper ridge was located across the southwestern US and the upper midwest. A sheared upper trough was located across New England and the mid Atlantic States. A minor mid level perturbation was centered across eastern OK and western AR.

At the surface a weak cold front was located across the northern Plains with western section of the front going under frontolysis. A low amplitude lee surface trough was located across the high Plains.

Today through Tonight:

The perturbation across eastern OK and western AR will amplify as it lifts north along the KS/MO border this afternoon and evening. The stronger ascent will be to the east of the perturbation across central MO where higher chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon. There may be enough ascent during the mid and late afternoon hours across the eastern section of the CWA for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. These showers and storms will dissipate after sunset as the perturbation lifts northeast. Highs Today will reach around 90 degrees east to the mid 90s west.

Sunday through Sunday night:

The CA H5 trough will lift northeast around the southern Plains H5 ridge axis across the central Plains. As ascent increases ahead of the H5 trough axis, showers and thunderstorms will develop across west central NE. Given an environment across west central NE with MLCAPES 2000 to 3000 and 35 KTS of effective shear, scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible, which may congeal into a line of storms. As the mid level flow becomes west-northwesterly across the central Plains the line of thunderstorms will begin to track southeast through the late afternoon into the evening hours. Even though the instability looks to be weaker 1000-1500 J/KG across northern KS, the line of severe thunderstorms may provide isolated damaging wind gusts if this line of storms reaches the western counties of the CWA
The line of storms should weaken as they move into the eastern portions of the CWA as the nocturnal inversion increases.

Highs on Sunday will reach the lower to mid 90s east to the upper 90s west. Heat indices will range from the upper 90s east to 100 to 104 degrees west.

Monday through Wednesday:

An upper level ridge across TX will amplify northward across KS. Look for hot temperatures reaching to around 100 to near 108 degrees across the far southwest counties. The PBL will mix deeper across the western counties but even if dewpoints mix out into the lower to mid 60s, heat indices will be in the 105 to 110 degree range. The PBL will not mix as deep in the eastern counties and dewpoints may remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon hours, which may increase heat indices in the 108 to 113 degree range. A heat advisory will be needed, with a possible excessive heat warning needed for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. There may also be some isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and overnight.

Wednesday night through Saturday:

An upper level trough will round the H5 ridge axis and dampen the H5 ridge axis across KS, with an upper low amplifying across the upper Midwest. The H5 ridge axis will retrograde west across the central Rockies on Friday, and northwest flow at mid and upper levels will keep the CWA cooler. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur Wednesday night as the H5 trough moves east across the central Plains and amplifies into an upper level low across northeast IA. A surface cold front along with DCVA ahead of the H5 trough should provide a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms Wednesday night ahead of the front could be strong.

Highs will cool into the mid 90s across northeast KS with highs near 100 south of I-70. Highs will remain in the 90s Friday and Saturday.

The extended range models show the H5 ridge across the west central US beginning to build east by August 5th and 6th.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. South-southeast surface winds will increase to 8 to 10 KTS through the mid and late morning hours and continue through the afternoon and Tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop around the KTOP and KFOE terminals this afternoon but should diminish this evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.