Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Columbia, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A mid/upper-level ridge is positioned across New England with a closed mid-level low traversing the southern periphery of this ridge to the east into the Ohio River Valley. The surface reflection of this ridge, an anomalously strong 1035mb high, is centered across southern Ontario brining continued low-level northeasterly flow into the region. The continued low-level CAA from the slow moving surface high has allowed for persistent and rather impressive low-level clouds for late September. Additionally, a narrow mid-level ridge is working its way eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. The effects of this feature (subsidence/sinking air) is apparent on visible satellite imagery, indicated by the western extent of the stratus deck that is through the center of MO. For most of our area today, this stratus has greatly reduced daytime heating, with current afternoon temperatures only 4-7 degrees warmer than this morning's lows. Most locations, as of 19z, are in the mid to low 60s, aside from portions of IL where temperatures are near 70, a result of thinner status. A slow scattering/lifting of the stratus is still forecast, but will likely not happen until near sunset or after, resulting in temperatures that stay in the mid/upper 60s across the area. Locations that remains mostly cloudy tonight will stay warmer with lows in the 60s, while light winds will allow areas that clear to lower into the 50s, thanks to efficient radiational cooling.

A similar situation is certainly possible Friday, as both the locations of the mid-level ridge location and low-level northeasterly CAA remain relatively unchanged from today. Stratus may not be as widespread Friday for some areas, with higher confidence in cloudier conditions north of I-70. There will be subtle pieces of shortwave energy traversing the northern periphery of the ridge, working to create more widespread cloud cover along with scattered showers. As a result, there is a 30-60% chance for showers across northeast MO/west-central IL Friday into Saturday.
This will be a light rain with LREF probabilities for 6hr rainfall greater than 0.25" less than 30% across the area. Areas that stay locked under low-level clouds will once again struggle to warm out of the 60s while locations that get more clearing will warm up into the 70s Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Mid-level pieces of energy continue to swing around the northern periphery of a ridge centered across TX, resulting in low chances for scattered rain showers continuing into Saturday and possibly Sunday. As we progress further into the weekend, some of the better chances (50%) move south and east reaching portions of central/east-central MO. Similar to Friday, mostly light rain showers are forecast as there is less than a 20% chance for thunderstorms. The better instability (MUCAPE >1,000 J/kg) stays to the west across the Great Plains this weekend, with LREF mean MUCAPE values staying below 200 J/kg across the entire area. By Tuesday, the large-scale pattern begins to shift as a longwave trough swings into the Intermountain West and the southern ridge into the Deep South. This places our area in southerly flow leading to warm/moist advection that will support increasing chances for more widespread showers along with thunderstorms. The LREF illustrates this potential well as probabilities for precipitation >0.50" reaches 50% for western portions of the area, indicating the increasing chances for more widespread beneficial rain. With southerly flow in place, temperatures IQRs steadily increase next week to values centered just above average. However, these IQR spreads increase to 10 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday, showing the potential for a cold front behind next weeks system. This reveals a return to near or slightly below normal temperatures are possible by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Once again, low clouds continue to be the primary concern during the 00Z TAF periods. While ceilings are gradually lifting near the Mississippi River this evening, allowing some terminals (UIN/STL/SUS/CPS) to see a few hours of VFR conditions this evening, we do expect that ceilings will lower later tonight and continue through the morning hours tomorrow. Meanwhile at COU/JEF, overcast low clouds are not showing signs of lifting or breaking apart just yet, and it may take another few hours for the pocket of clearing to move west and briefly improve ceilings for a few hours late this evening. Still, it is likely that MVFR ceilings will redevelop there, also. Confidence is quite low regarding when ceilings will improve tomorrow, but MVFR ceilings should last through at least mid-day.

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.