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FXUS63 KEAX 280523 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1123 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Discussion
Issued at 309 PM CST MON NOV 27 2023

Key Messages:

- Moderating temperatures Tuesday into Thursday, with some areas exceeding 50 degrees.

- Rainfall expected along/southeast of KC to Kirksville Thursday into early Friday morning.

Wide range of temperatures exist this afternoon, even in the face of abundant sunshine. Readings range from the lower 30s in northern MO where a few clouds and snowpack exist versus the middle 40s in the southern CWA with clear skies and snow-free surface.
Similarly, lows tonight will be coldest within the snowpack in the teens, with lower 20s elsewhere. Surface high pressure shifts to the east of the area on Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend commencing as shortwave ridging moves into the central CONUS. Look for highs to warm each day, with a return of the 50s in the southwestern half of the CWA by Wed and Thu.

Main focus of the forecast period comes on Thursday into Thursday night as a compact negatively-tilted shortwave trough ejects into the Arklatex region. The exact track of the system will determine the placement of the northern periphery of precipitation, which currently is projected to slice the CWA in half - with the northwest half remaining mostly dry. From KC to Kirksville and points southeast, roughly 0.25-0.50" of rain is expected from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings largely support all rain, but cannot completely rule out a very brief wintry mix on the backside of the departing system early Friday morning - albeit no accumulation. After the passage of the upper wave on Friday, a series of waves diving over the southwestern US with southwesterly mid-level flow persisting over the CWA should yield warming temperatures for the weekend into early next week.

Aviation
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST MON NOV 27 2023

Outside of a chance for fog lowering VSBYs to IFR/MVFR at STJ early Tuesday morning, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light WNW winds overnight will become southerly by Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 20 knots or so beginning around 20z Tuesday afternoon before relaxing and turning more westerly by Tuesday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,