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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lansing, KS

February 17, 2025 2:11 PM CST (20:11 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:06 AM   Sunset 6:00 PM
Moonrise 11:15 PM   Moonset 9:19 AM 
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Area Discussion for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 171745 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

KEY MESSAGES

* Today: Light snowfall mainly N Missouri. Generally 1" to 3" - Winter Weather Advisory in effect

* Late Tonight - Tuesday: Moderate to heavy snowfall mainly S of Highway 36.
- Winter Storm Warning along/south of I-70, incl KC Metro - Generally 5" to 10" possible from N to S - Winter Weather Advisory N or Warning area (~I-70 - Hwy 36)
- Generally 2" to 5" possible from N to S

* Dangerous Cold: From tonight thru Thursday morning - Cold Weather Advisory tonight thru Wednesday over whole area - Coldest wind chills around -10 to -25 from SE to NW - Extreme Cold Watch Wednesday night - Thursday morning - Potential for widespread wind chills -25 to -30

DISCUSSION
Issued at 427 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

A fair amount to unpack with this discussion ... with couple rounds of snow and dangerous cold, numerous headline alternations and issuances this morning
But first

Early morning conditions remain largely quiet over the area.
Observations and Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery depict slowly increasing cloud cover and ceiling lowering. Water vapor imagery depicts/confirms large scale NW flow aloft, with any notable disturbances remaining over the inter-mountain west.
Radar return are overspreading from the west, but little reaching the ground at this point in time with near-surface dry air winning out. Exception being indicated banding coming out of KS and Topeka ASOS reporting light snow.

For today, not notable changes to the going forecasted snowfall and associated Winter Weather Advisory headline. Broad isentropic lift near/above the 850mb level will continue continue to saturate the column and provide the opportunity for the advertised fairly widespread light snowfall. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest some periods of transient banding with frontogenetical forcing in/around 850-700mb layer. With limited moisture available/advecting in and f frontogenetical forcing waning and drifting southward through the day, any higher end potential snowfalls will be limited. Profiles nearly entirely within the DGZ, expect efficient snowfall and SLRs in the teens:1. Ongoing forecast of 1 to 3 inches remains unchanged.
Narrow/isolated area approaching 4", especially around the NE/IA/KS/MO border may be possible.

While moisture will be limited and forcing weakens as it drifts southward this evening, light snowfall to "heavy" flurries may continue through the evening and into the overnight before additional moisture advection and stronger forcing arrive from the west. Nothing substantial expected, but light accumulations of around an inch may be seen across areas near/south of I-70.

By late tonight/early Tuesday, shortwave trough begins to move off the Rockies and into the Plains, bringing with it strong/widespread lift and additional Pacific moisture. Deterministic and ensemble synoptic guidance has remained steadfast in their depictions, especially the Euro suite. The GFS suite has shown subtle shifting southward of the peak area, but largely in line with Euro with regards to location. As we enter the hi-res model windows, can begin to assess the uncertainty on the northern edge, which is common with many winter systems. In this case, surface high over western Dakotas remains expected to largely remain in place in response to fairly stationary and slow development of upper level cutoff low. That should help limit traditional bust potential of northerly dry air advecting in. Jet dynamics also support widespread snowfall potential with central/southern areas of Missouri in the right entrance region. How far north transient banding and broader isentropic lift around/above 850mb lingers will likely determine top end potential for northern edges of the Warning and Advisory.
Similar to today, profiles almost entirely in the DGZ will yield efficient and fluffy snowfall, once again with SLRs likely around the teens:1. Won't be hard to produce at least light snow. No major changes within probabilistic guidance. Probabilities for >6" remain greatest near and south of I-70 with values 50% or greater, around 75% at the southern CWA border with SGF. For >4" 50% chances or greater push up to St. Joseph and the Highway 60 corridor, and 90% or greater to the southern CWA border. Put another way, current 25/75 spread is approximately 4" to 8" over the KC Metro, 3" to 5" around St. Joseph, and around 6" to 10" toward Butler and Sedalia.
With all that in mind, Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory areas expanded and issued to generally align with those probabilities and local criteria.

While conditions dry out remainder of the week in response to surface high oozing in from the Northern Plains, that does not mean there are no additional hazards. Already cold conditions at present will become colder yet with reinforcing arctic air mass tonight. The aforementioned high will influence the region through the rest of the work week and allow temperatures to fall into the single digits for highs and below zero for lows. Concurrent wind chills will be below zero from tonight thru Thursday morning for most of central through northern Missouri. This includes coldest wind chill values in the -20s deg F. Coldest morning may be Thursday morning with current forecast morning lows widely -10 deg F or colder and wind chills widely -20 deg F or colder. As a result, plethora of cold weather headlines across the region. At this time, do have Cold Weather Advisory for the entire CWA from tonight through Wednesday.
An Extreme Cold Watch remains Wednesday night thru Thursday morning, with increasing potential for an Extreme Cold Warning to be issued.
Regardless, be sure to dress in multiple warm layers if having to travel or be outside for any period of time. Precautions should also be taken to protect water pipes and to limit outdoor time for pets.

Warming conditions finally return Friday and into the weekend. This includes the return of ABOVE FREEZING temperatures possibly by Saturday or certainly by Sunday. Possible 50s by Monday even. Long range forecasts remain strongly in favor of mild (think much warmer than current) conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Light snow spread across eastern KS and north portions of MO with 1-2 inches generally and more in far northwest MO. MVFR conditions with some improving to VFR for most of the TAF sites,as the snow moves eastward through the early afternoon there continues to remain MVFR/IFR towards IRK and DMO. The next system will be impacting our area from the south overnight tonight with light snow starting in the late evening 02z-04z, then with heavier snow and reduced visibilities down to 1SM aft 04z at TAF locations. Winds will remain light but become more northeasterly increasing with gust 20-22kts after 03z. Expect now, reduced VIS to 1SM and CIGs to OVC015 03z-06z for TAF locations through remainder of forecast TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>007-011>017-020>025-030>033-040.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ011>013-020>022-030>033-039-040.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054.
Extreme Cold Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039- 043-044.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ028-029-037-038-043>046-053-054.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025- 102.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ025-102.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
Extreme Cold Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for KSZ025-057-102>105.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ057-060-103>105.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMCI KANSAS CITY INTL,MO 17 sm18 minENE 0910 smOvercast14°F7°F73%30.30
KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS 18 sm19 minNE 1110 smOvercast18°F9°F67%30.31
KMKC CHARLES B WHEELER DOWNTOWN,MO 23 sm17 minNE 1010 smOvercast16°F7°F67%30.33

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GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley  
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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,





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