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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lansing, KS

June 25, 2024 12:03 AM CDT (05:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM
Moonrise 11:02 PM   Moonset 8:38 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, KS
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Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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661 FXUS63 KEAX 242317 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024


- Dangerously hot and humid conditions continue. Daytime heat index values around 105-115 expected this afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper 70s to near 80 bring little relief from the heat. Heat index values Tuesday reside around 100-105.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight Tonight into Tuesday; more likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible with heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail being the primary hazards. Some pulse non-severe storms are possible during the afternoon hours Tuesday.

- Runoff from recent rainfall across the northern US is flowing into the MO River. River levels are expected to rise throughout the week. Some areas may see minor to moderate flooding.

Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Summer officially started on June 20th and quickly established itself across the region. Heat and humidity have taken firm hold thanks to two high pressure areas stalled across the US working in tandem to create a hot, muggy, and challenging weather pattern. An H500 low situated over the southwest US orients upper level flow generally northwesterly across the region. At the H850 level another high sits across the Gulf coast which maintains the southerly flow to warm air and humidity into the region. Model guidance so far has underperformed observations with multiple places reaching triple digit air temperatures. Heat index values have ascended to 105-115F.
Slightly more concerning is the overnight lows only bottoming out in the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. This brings little relief from the heat, especially for vulnerable populations. Please check in on family and neighbors and ensure their well being. Heat index values above 100F continue Tuesday.

Shortwave troughs rim riding around both ridges eject small areas of cyclonic vorticity. This combined with a broad warm air mass creates and environment possible for pulse air mass thunderstorms during the afternoon. So far satellite imagery has not shown much cloud development across the region lessing chances for afternoon pulse convection. An upper level shortwave traverse northern MO bringing chances for showers and storms overnight tonight into Tuesday. Broad scale saturating and lift may bring isolated showers across the region by sunrise Tuesday.

The environment becomes a little more unstable Tuesday afternoon becoming a little more conducive for pulse storm development; however, it has been challenging for models to capture where storms might form. CAMs have been suggesting a small area of storms across NE MO spreading southward into central MO during the late afternoon and evening. The precedes a larger, more robust complex of thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the product of an upper level trough which slides across the upper Midwest. This sets up a strong area of low level convergence across southern IA and northern MO. Thunderstorms are expected to form along this boundary quickly assembling into a complex which moves southward through the night. Strong to severe storms are possible within both waves with heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail being the primary concerns. This complex of storms ushers in a cooler air mass which lowers temperatures back down to the upper and mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, bringing a respite from the heat. Extended guidance shows heat building back in later in the week with triple digit heat index values anticipated toward the end of the week. The upper level pattern also looks to become a bit more zonal opening up to more leeward cyclones. This ebbs and flows warming temperatures with cooling rains. Guidance has remained active and variable so many uncertainties remain with the longer term pattern.

Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions expected to persist across all TAF sites. Some diurnal cu is currently inching towards KIXD, so putting the introduction of those cu at KIXD, KMCI, and KMKC around 1z. Some signature of light rain showers tomorrow morning around 12z, but electing to keep out of TAFs for now due to low confidence (<30%). Gusts will calm going into the evening, before ramping back up tomorrow afternoon with anticipated mixing and diurnal cu cover.

Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly affected by updated information and additional rainfall around the region.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>006-011>015- 020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.

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