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FXUS65 KREV 191936 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1236 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024


SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions with typical afternoon breezes will prevail through the weekend. Above average highs in the 60s for Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys, with even a few valleys cresting 80 degrees into Monday. There will be isolated shower chances near the Sierra today, and lower potential for southern Mono county through the weekend. The trend continues for cooler and more active weather returns mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

* Warm and dry weekend ahead: Well above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine will have it feeling quite warm, especially with some lower valleys nearing or surpassing 80 degrees. Be sure to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and keep an eye on those more sensitive to the warmer temperatures. The warmer temperatures will also fuel snowmelt in the Sierra, for more details check out the Hydrology section.

* Warm days means that we're edging back into thunderstorm season. Main concern for any showers and thunderstorms is along the Sierra today. As of 1pm, visible satellite showing a few pops of cumulus clouds across Mono county. There is a 15-20% chance for a storm or two near Mammoth Lakes, and a 5-10% chance near Lake Tahoe. It's that time of year, so keep an eye on the skies if you have outdoor plans or recreation, particularly in the afternoons.

* It still appears that we will be shifting into a more active weather pattern for next week with a several troughs setting up shop over the Eastern Pacific. There are still discrepancies in the exact track of the incoming shortwaves and troughs, but the trend is still there for cooler temperatures as well as higher potential for showers starting as early as Tuesday. Blended guidance has been consistently showing 20-30% chances for showers across the Sierra and western Nevada Wednesday onward.

-Edan

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will prevail this weekend, outside of a bit of patchy FZFG Saturday and Sunday mornings. Plan on light surface winds except for some enhanced breezes Saturday afternoon. For western NV valley terminals, gusts will reach 20-25 kts, while Sierra valley terminals will be around 15-20 kts.

* Showers and thunderstorm potential will be confined to the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward into Mono County. For KMMH, 20-25% chances of showers, with a 10-15% chance of lightning.

-Edan

HYDROLOGY

Above normal temperatures combined with mostly sunny skies will increase snowmelt leading to minor to moderate rises in rivers and creeks draining largely snow covered watersheds. While no flooding is expected in the area, many waterways will be running cold and fast, with gradually increasing flows into early next week. The West Fork of the Carson near Woodfords is expected to rise above the action stage each night through Tuesday, but remain below flood stage.

Rivers and streams draining mostly snow covered terrain below about 7500 feet are likely to see their seasonal peaks by early next week. Basins with significant higher elevation terrain will retain plenty of snow for higher flows with subsequent warmups. The Lower Humboldt is expected to have very high flows for many weeks with minor flooding likely in May or June, or even into early July.

Exercise caution around rivers and streams, remember mountain rivers and streams often reach their highest levels from snowmelt at night.

-TB


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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