Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Foxfield, CO

DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

For today, WSW flow aloft will continue as an upper level trough extends from the nrn Rockies into the Great Basin. Cross-sections show very litte moisture embedded in the flow, so expect dry conditions to remain over the area, with gusty winds over the high terrain. A weak cool front associated with convection over the nrn plains was moving across nern CO early this morning. By aftn, will likely see a Denver cyclone with an associated convergence/shear zone. Low level moisture behind this feature is lacking so don't expect any tstm activity. Meanwhile, high temps this aftn may be altered some as readings to the north and northwest of the Denver cyclone stay in the upper 80's to lower 90's while areas to the south and east rise into the mid to upper 90's. As for smoke, from the fires over UT and wrn CO, latest HRRR seems to clear it out today but then increases it again tonight, especially across portions of the higher terrain.

For tonight, another round of convection may occur over portions of ern WY and wrn NE which may send another outflow boundary across nern CO overnight. However, don't expect any tstm activity as the airmass over nern CO will be capped.

On Mon, an upper level trough will extend from the nrn Rockies into California. This will allow for WSW flow aloft to remain over the area with dry conditions over the high terrain. Across nern CO low level moisture is still lacking and with a cap in place, tstm chances look minimal across the plains. Meanwhile, 850-700 mb temps are slightly cooler so aftn highs should be a few degrees cooler across the plains.

For Tue, SW flow aloft will continue as a disturbance moves from the Great Basin into Wyoming by Tue night. At the sfc, the low level flow will become S/SSE across the plains. As a result, this will allow some return of lower level moisture by aftn with a pseudo dryline setting up over the plains. Analysis of soundings, show there is still a fairly decent cap in place, so not sure about how much tstm activity there will be over the plains during the aftn into the evening hours. Thus have kept in 20-30 percent pops over the nern plains. Across the higher terrain it still looks mainly dry.

Looking ahead to Wed and Thu, SW flow aloft will continue. At the sfc, low pres will extend from ern WY into ern CO with a pseudo dryline east of the I-25 Corridor. Low level moisture will be over the plains, however, there still appears to be a decent cap in place both days which may keep tstm activity minimal despite decent SBCAPE. Over the higher terrain, there will be some mid level moisture embedded in the flow so can't completely rule out some isold high based showers or tstms. Highs both days will be in the 90's across the plains.

By Fri, the flow aloft will be WSW as a weak upper level trough moves across the nrn Rockies. At this time, it looks mainly dry with highs remaining in the 90's across nern CO.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Wind direction will be tricky this afternoon due to the expected development of a cyclone. Winds at this time are easterly over the region with a hint of southeast winds starting arrive to the southeast Denver metro area, closest to KAPA. At the same time, winds over this area are starting to curve to the northeast as they interact with the terrain.

There are two possible scenarios this afternoon given recent model trends and current observations. The first one would involve a cyclone forming N/NE of Denver, and this is the scenario that most models have trended towards. With a cyclone to the north, KDEN would experience a shift to SSW winds around 21Z and then a shift to west winds around 00Z as the cyclone migrates eastwards. Under this scenario, winds at KBJC would shift NE to NW as the afternoon progresses. The second scenario would occur if a cyclone continues to form over or just east of KAPA. If this occurs, winds at KDEN would stay easterly through the afternoon before turning counterclockwise as the cyclone migrates to the east. KAPA would shift to the NE and then turn counterclockwise as well, while KBJC experiences a light to NE to N wind.

Otherwise, the other point of concern for this TAF period is the transport of smoke from the wildfires in western Colorado. Although plumes will continue to evolve over the next couple of hours, it looks like smoke could cause slant-range visibility impacts as early as 00Z this evening with the highest smoke concentrations arriving near 06Z. A weak cold front may help push some of the smoke southwards around sunrise, but smoke aloft is expected to continue and worsen as the day progresses on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Critical fire conditions will continue over the higher terrain today, with sustained southwesterly winds of 15-30 mph along with a few gusts of 35-45 mph. There may be some very marginal improvement to RH across North Park, though a majority of the Red Flag Warning area will still see 10-15% RH during the afternoon hours.

While a cold front is expected to bring some relief Sunday night (particularly with respect to humidity recovery), no precipitation or substantial cooling is expected during the week. Additional elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected each day next week, with additional Fire Weather Watches likely needed for at least Monday. Fuels status may also need to be re-evaluated for areas that did not see significant precipitation over the last week or so.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ211>214-216- 218.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ212>214-216.