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FXUS65 KBOU 050012 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 612 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Quiet weather will prevail over the next 24 hours. Subsidence behind a departing trough axis has left most of the region under partly cloudy skies with temperatures near normal values for this time of year. There's a bit more cloud cover across the high country, but otherwise there's not much to talk about.

Weak northwest flow aloft is expected to continue into tomorrow as ridging gradually tries to build to our west, while the main longwave trough axis hangs out to our east. Dry conditions will continue through the day with highs a couple of degrees cooler than today. Most of the area should see sunny skies, but some cloud cover is expected across far northeast Colorado where a narrow ribbon of mid-level moisture is expected to drift into the area by late morning.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A fast-moving upper level shortwave will rush southeast over the northern plains late Thursday into Friday, and will push a relatively dry backdoor cold front into Colorado overnight and through Friday morning. The coolest air doesn't look to trickle into our area until later on Friday and Friday night, but there may still be some very patchy frost over portions of the plains early Friday morning. Moisture will be lacking and quite shallow, so precipitation is unlikely for most with this front. In the post- frontal environment, expect highs on Friday to be considerably cooler, with an increasing potential for many if not all of our lower elevations to remain below 60 degrees. That colder air will linger into Saturday morning, when the first freeze of the season looks increasingly likely for a sizable portion of the plains, particularly east of the I-25 corridor.

Temperatures during the day Saturday will rebound noticeably, closer to seasonal normals and locally climbing into the lower 70's. We'll remain under modest northwesterly aloft, with ridging to our west and a longwave trough anchored over the Great Lakes and the northeastern US. That big picture is here to stay, although some slight eastward expansion of the ridge into Colorado will help continue the warming trend into Sunday, with mild conditions persisting into early next week. This will ensure that dry weather prevails over northeast Colorado through this period, with mostly light winds as well.

Signals point towards a disruption in the aforementioned upper level pattern as early as Wednesday, with troughing developing over the PacNW and trying to push inland. How that unfolds is up in the air, with anything from a more progressive shortwave to a better defined closed low over Colorado amongst the mix of ensemble scenarios. It's enough to introduce some slight PoPs for Wednesday across most areas, although the general consensus suggests the better chances for widespread precipitation would arrive closer to Thursday if anything.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 559 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Weak and variable winds continue at both KAPA and KDEN overnight into Thursday morning. High clouds are possible Thursday afternoon mainly above 20k ft. By late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, light easterly winds shift south. Typical drainage winds are possible Thursday evening into Friday.



BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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