SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Colorado remains at the northeast edge of a 500mb ridge and south of a weak shortwave trough this morning. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture extending along the edge of these features across Colorado. Radar shows a few showers over the mountains early this morning with some containing brief gusty winds up to 25-35 mph.
Trends show showers dissipating as they make their way east over the mountains.

Today will feature scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon. A weak wave embedded in the the flow aloft moves through by this evening bringing weak ascent over the region.
There will be a bit more instability compared to yesterday, but still generally less than 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE with the exception of the far northeast corner (800-1500 J/kg). Moisture-wise, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 40s-low 50s with overall normal to slightly above normal moisture in place. HRRR ensemble guidance highlights areas along the northern I-25 corridor and east plains for higher dewpoint air. Precipitable water values range 0.8-1.2" for the lower elevations and 0.5-0.7" for the high country. Shear will be in sufficient values as well, further supporting more organized thunderstorm development this afternoon.

High-res CAMs show showers/storms initiating over the mountains 11AM- 1PM, then expanding eastward onto the plains by mid- afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are possible as well given the convective environment. General thunderstorms may put out brief gusty outflows. Stronger storms may pose a threat for gusty winds and hail. DCAPE values range 1000-1500 J/kg to support isolated severe gusts. Northeast corner will be more favored for the hail threat with higher moisture and instability.
Highs today will be similar to Friday with highs in the low 90s for I-25 corridor, mid 90s for plains.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Friday/
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Drier air in westerly flow aloft will move into the area on Sun. As a result any tstm development will be rather isold and confined mainly to those areas near the WY-NE border area. MLCAPE over the far nern plains will be in the 1000-1500 j/kg and with decent mid level flow an isold svr storm will be possible. Otherwise it will be warmer as aftn highs rise into the mid to upper 90's across the plains.

For Mon and Tue the flow aloft will be WSW with very little moisture in the flow. This it looks dry both days with aftn highs in the upper 90's to lower 100's across the plains. Record highs will be possible in some areas.

On Wed, an upper level trough will move across the nrn Rockies with increasing westerly flow aloft. Once again, it appears minimal moisture will be embedded in the flow which will lead to mainly dry conditions with another day of highs reaching the upper 90's to lower 100's, across the plains.

By Thu, the flow aloft will become more WNW as a weak cool front moves across the area. This will front may drop highs back in the lower to mid 90's over nern CO. In addition, there may be enough moisture for a slight of tstms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/
Issued at 601 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Southeasterly winds this morning at DEN/APA become southwesterly before 15Z this morning. Light winds gradually transition their way W around to NE by 18Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again in the afternoon today in the 20-02Z timeframe.
This will keep prevailing winds WNW/NW as activity develops off of the mountains. Periods of variable gusty outflow winds will accompany any nearby or passing showers/thunderstorms with gusts up to 35 kts. Isolated gusts may be higher in stronger storms.
Winds will likely be dominated by the outflows of any residual showers in the evening resulting in lower confidence in the wind direction tonight. Winds settled SW Sunday morning.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Elevated to critical fire danger will develop over the higher terrain on Sunday and continue into Monday due to gusty winds, low humidity and above normal temperatures.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Normal to just above normal moisture will remain across the region on Saturday, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Localized heavy rainfall is possible again over the high country; therefore, there will be a limited threat for flash flooding in the burn areas. Storm motions are expected to be quicker than Friday with increased flow aloft.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.