Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neffs, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Areas of frost plus near to sub-freezing temperature possible this morning and both Saturday/Sunday mornings.

2) Weather pattern remains active through the upcoming week while area temperature generally remains below seasonal averages.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light wind and clear skies have allowed many locations, notably western PA into northern WV, to see temperature falls into the 30s that likely will result in frost development by dawn. Patchy frost may still develop for portions of eastern OH where incoming clouds have been slower to matriculate. Rising temperature plus cloud cover then mitigates frost/freeze concerns by mid morning.

After a crossing wave provides scattered to numerous daytime rain showers (with non-zero lightning probability due to cold air aloft), another round of frost/freeze concerns develop for the region. Due to the potential for lingering post-frontal stratocu and limited probabilities for temperature to fall drastically below freezing (30-50% probability of < 30 degree minT only sporadically seen near/north of I-80), headline messaging will focus on active areal highlights with daytime issuance of new area impacts Saturday morning.

Saturday features additional low probability shower chances with passing upper trough axis before another night featuring clear skies and light wind develop. Frost and near to subfreezing temperature are possible for this period as well, which may prompt future headlines. Frost/Freeze concerns alleviate heading into the next work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Beyond the few disturbances through the weekend, ensemble models share fairly consistent outlooks for the weather pattern to remain active for much of the next week. Height rises Monday into early Tuesday may still feature embedded shortwave movement offering lower probability rain chances before the next lobe of upper level energy re-entrenches deep troughing over the Great Lakes Tuesday through the latter half of the week. Along with the fairly frequent shots of rain (probability of a 24-hour period with no measurable rain is not much more than 50%), temperature remains well below seasonable averages save for a brief approach to those averages Monday/Tuesday.

Overall risk levels are likely to be low to very low through this period. One path toward a higher risk is if Tuesday's shortwave/cold front timing is more afternoon/evening that could allow enough heating/dewpoint rises, creating a marginal severe risk. The other is if strong-enough frontogenesis develops amid a slower moving shortwave passage Tuesday into Wednesday to push 24-hour rainfall totals closer to the 1.5-2.5" range, creating a marginal flood risk.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low-level clouds will continue their advance from the west with the next disturbance encroaching. Showers will overspread the area, with the highest coverage roughly between 18Z and 00Z.
These will bring with them some cig restrictions, with a >50% chance of at least MVFR with the showers (save ZZV), with IFR only favored for DUJ and FKL. There could foreseeable be a rumble of thunder, but chances are generally too low to denote any PROB30s for now.

There is some uncertainty in whether cigs will recover late day and during the early overnight hours, with most of the uncertainty between VFR/MVFR, before MVFR become most favored late tonight and into Saturday morning (with patchy IFR possible for DUJ and FKL). Lifting to VFR is favored for Saturday, with perhaps some widely scattered afternoon showers.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Saturday night and Sunday under high pressure.
Restriction potential and showers/possible thunderstorms return Monday and Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ021-509>513.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ514.