Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Alexander, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Potential for heavy rainfall at times Saturday that could lead to minor flooding.

2) High confidence in the development of hot and humid conditions next week, which will support a heat risk and potential severe weather.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The main concern will be for the coming day and into tonight. A stalled boundary along the mainly I-70 will be the main trigger for another period of continued showers and thunderstorms across the area. The timing and area of heavier rainfall will be more focused during the afternoon and early evening with the days heating. Thus, the area mentioned will remain under a Flood Watch through 8PM this evening. While the stationary boundary will fluxuate from north to south from time to time, the focus will be over the southern portions of the forecast area evening into the day on Sunday. The flood threat is expected to remain through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A pattern shift begins into the early week, with a strong mid- level ridge building and shunting hot air into the upper Ohio Valley region.

Thru the week, temps will climb steadily into the upper 80s/lower 90s, with some possibility of MaxT reaching mid 90s.
Forecast solutions are clustered around two key scenarios:

1) Hotter and drier: temps may reach mid 90s, but dewpoints mix out into the lower 60s, thus reducing ApparentT modestly. In this scenario, the upper-level ridge asserts itself sufficiently to suppress convective potential.

2) Less hot and stormier: temps may reach upper 80s, but dewpoints will be high. In this scenario, ApparentT may be higher and pose some heat impact. But the temp ceiling will be limited by convective potential, with severe storms possible.
The environment will support strong downbursts as buoyancy would be high and shear would be weak.

Some combination of both of these scenarios could play out over the week leading up to and including July 4, so those with outdoor activities will need to monitor daily forecasts as the week goes on for localized updates on storm and heat potential.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Scattered showers can be expected through the overnight. With the scattered activity, cigs and vis will be in flux through much of the night. Towards dawn, expected cigs dropping to field mins in most cases. The afternoon will feature thunderstorms developing with additional restrictions expected. Have used some PROB30s during the afternoon and evening to cover the thunderstorm potential. Winds are expected to be light and variable outside of thunderstorms.

Outlook...
Active weather continues through the rest of the weekend with multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms as well as periodic restrictions mainly associated with heavier instances of rain.
Drier northwest flow and high pressure build into the area starting Sunday, leading to drier weather and lower probabilities for restrictions next week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ031.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ057>059-068-069.
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ004-012-021-509-510.