Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alexandria, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue through the work week.

2) The potential for rain returns for the latter part of the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Synoptically, a broad H5 ridge remains stretched across the eastern half of the CONUS, ushering in a seasonably warm air mass throughout the Ohio Valley. This ridge will dampen and result in more quasi- zonal flow aloft as we progress into the middle of the week, but no notable changes at the surface will be realized. For the entirety of the work week, temperatures will trend above seasonal normals, with overnight lows becoming more mild late week into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Global models and ensembles have been persistent in showing a shift in the weather pattern across the Ohio Valley this weekend. This is in response to a negatively tilted trough that swings through portions of the Midwest region. A plume of moisture will be ingested ahead of this trough, resulting in more cloud coverage on Saturday and higher dewpoints that will keep overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s Saturday night. The best forcing appears to arrive on Sunday, resulting in the highest PoPs for our CWA Still far enough out that timing details aren't totally worked out, but note that we could observe rain as early as Saturday evening depending on the progression of this shortwave trough.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Plume of cirrus clouds will linger throughout the taf period. Some valley fog is expected to develop again tonight, with primary impacts at KLUK. Cannot rule out some brief MVFR vsbys at KLCK.

Surface winds remain light and variable, with a shift to the southeast expected Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.