Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leesville, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Areas of frost plus near to sub-freezing temperatures continues this morning and return tonight.

2) Weather pattern remains active through the upcoming week while area temperature generally remains below seasonal averages.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Though a mixture of low stratus and mid-level clouds may locally stunt cooling and/or frost formation, the overall threat of frost and areas of sub-freezing temperature continue this morning before abating after sunrise.

The upper trough axis crosses through the day today, creating low probability light rain showers mainly in the late morning to afternoon period, before exiting east. The combination of one last reinforcement of the colder air mass behind this axis with clearing skies and light wind favors one more night of frost and freeze concerns. Upgrade of the Freeze Watch in the WV high terrain area is likely with additional frost/freeze headlines issued but will allow current headlines to expire before messaging tonight's risks to vegetation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Height rises and increasingly southwest flow will manage to lift area temperature closer to seasonal averages by Monday into Tuesday; even then, enough weak embedded shortwave movement may promote lower probability shower (and non-zero thunderstorm probability) starting early Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Ensemble models agree in this being just a precursor to the larger pattern shift back to Great Lakes troughing developing by Wednesday and lasting into the end of the work week. Residents across the upper Ohio River Valley can expect multiple more rounds of rain with temperature trending about 10 degrees below the daily averages.

The finer details both the Monday/Tuesday pre-trough arrival period and the late Tuesday/Wednesday trough period are a bit more varied, resulting in variances in precipitation onset/ending as well as coverage and totals. What can be said is high confidence in severe/flood threats being very low with any activity that develops Monday into Tuesday morning. Severe risks rise slightly late Tuesday into Wednesday only in the scenario that the cold front crossing best maximizes destabilization attempts (highlighted by 10% probability of ~1000 J/kg SBCAPE).
Flood risks may be the more notable aspect to monitor given fairly saturated grounds in the region and scenarios that see repetition of narrow heavier bands pushing 24-48hr totals above 2", with current probabilities favored eastern OH to far southwest PA for such axis development (co-located with 10-20% >2" probability).

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mix of VFR and MVFR is ongoing to start the 12Z TAF cycle as scattered light showers make their way across the northern half of the area. While stratocu are expected to fill in across most of the area through the morning and ceilings could start at MVFR, gradual improvement to VFR is forecast by late morning or afternoon. Light rain showers have so far been mostly limited to areas north of PIT/AGC, but are expected to develop farther south towards the I-70 corridor this afternoon with a crossing upper trough and steepening low-level lapse rates. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, confidence in them impacting any given terminal remains too low to warrant more than a PROB30 mention in TAFs. Impacts with these showers should be minimal, perhaps brief reductions to MVFR ceilings/visibilities during instances of rain but otherwise remaining VFR. Shower activity wanes and VFR prevails with cloud cover scattering after 00z.

Wind will generally range between 5-10 knots out of the west through morning and early afternoon, then shift to northwesterly during late afternoon and evening while remaining light.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Sunday under high pressure. Restriction and shower potential increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. A few thunderstorms are also possible on Tuesday. More widespread restrictions in showers are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ020-021-029- 031-073>078.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009- 013>016-022.
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for WVZ510>514.