Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingram, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong wind gusts today

2) Cold front returns rain, isolated thunderstorms, and snow Monday

3) Colder conditions Tuesday, gradual warm up throughout the week

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong low pressure system in the Midwest will bring isolated wind gusts between 45-50mph this afternoon and into the late evening. With temperatures soaring into the low-70s and mixing of the low-level jet to the surface, minor impacts could be experienced across the region.

Potential impacts included downed trees, loosening of shingles, and isolated power outages. A Wind Advisory has been issued along Laurel Highlands and near I-80 due to the probability of 46mph to 50mph gusts is elevated (above 60%). However, we can't rule out a few stronger gusts in the region elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Over the next 24 hours, as the low pressure system moves eastward rain showers, thunderstorms, and snow showers are all expected. On Monday, gusty showers are highly confident for eastern Ohio between 6am and 8am. The Pittsburgh metro area will see precipitation between 9am and 11am along the frontal boundary. Precipitation will be light, with accumulation of only 0.1 to 0.25 inches, because fast-moving dry air will limit the rainfall rates.

Monday afternoon presents a small window of opportunity for strong storms to develop, primarily between 12pm and 3pm east of Pittsburgh. Although strong vertical wind shear will be present from the south, the storms are expected to be limited by a lack of low-level moisture and surface heating. If any strong to severe storms do form, they are most likely to occur near the Laurel Highlands and advance east into central Pennsylvania quickly; damaging winds would be the main threat.

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will fall into the 30s late Monday. Rain will most likely change over into a rain/snow mix followed by snow under cold advection. Snow chances will continue into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough, and lake/terrain enhancement in cold W-NW flow. Accumulations should be minimal for most areas, with probabilities of an inch or two highest north of I-80 and in the ridges (40-50%). The probability of reach Winter Weather Advisory criteria for the ridges is less than 30%.

Key Message 3...

Record or near-record low maximum temperatures are expected Tuesday, with daytime highs likely likely to remain near to below freezing as 850mb temps fall to around -15C to -17C.

Wind chill values will be uncomfortable throughout the day on Tuesday, ranging between 5F to 18F. Probability of wind chill values near or below 10F is elevated (60-75%) along the ridges.

Temperatures should be close to average from Wednesday to Friday. This is mainly due to an exiting trough and high pressure building across the Plains. The potential for weather impacts during this time period is considered low.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Gusty winds associated with crossing low pressure will persist through Monday. Temperatures will drop rapidly behind a cold front progged to cross the region Monday, with the associated showers eventually changing over to snow and resulting in possible IFR conditions. Latest analogs suggest a near 100% probability of IFR KPIT and north..

Before then, VFR conditions should prevail overnight, before dropping to MVFR with the mentioned crossing low pressure.
Latest ensemble guidance shows 100% probabilities of VFR overnight, going to 80-100% MVFR by Monday afternoon, with best chances of IFR later in the afternoon coinciding with the changeover to snow. Precipitation will diminish during the evening, as wind veers westerly and ceilings should gradually improve.

Outlook...
Post- frontal westerly winds will remain in place and keep the boundary layer well mixed. Only minor snowfall accumulations are expected outside of the ridges. Drier weather returns Wednesday with high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for PAZ007>009-015-016- 073>078.
OH...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.