Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stockville, NE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a large area of high pressure located over the southwestern CONUS. A ridge extended north of the high into Wyoming. On the northern periphery of the high, weak disturbances were noted from eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and western South Dakota. These disturbances have transitioned east this evening and have led to thunderstorm development across a large portion of the forecast area. Some of this activity was severe earlier this evening, but as of the early overnight hours, this activity has significantly decreased in intensity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the SW CONUS over the next 36 hours. Upper level disturbances, rotating around the northern periphery of the high, will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region over the next 36 hours.
ATTM the main threat will be during the late afternoon and evening hours-timed to the greatest instability. For today, ongoing convection across central and south central Nebraska, will force a frontal boundary south into Kansas. With easterly flow north of this feature across the forecast area, high temperatures today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday's readings. This will lead to highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Later this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming INVOF a weak surface trough and sb capes of 1500 to 2500 J/KG. This area will also be underneath a favorable area of Theta e and decent mid level lapse rates. Low amplitude west- northwest flow will carry this activity east-southeast, possibly impacting western and southwestern portions of the forecast area Tuesday evening. As for the severe threat, the greatest instability remains over the Nebraska Panhandle, so am expecting the greatest severe threat there. Further east, sb CAPES are not as favorable for severe storms with meager deep layer shear of 25 to 30 KTS noted. Any storms which do become severe should be marginally severe with mainly quarter size hail and wind gusts to around 60 MPH and over far western and southwestern portions of the forecast area. Overnight, this activity will ride southwest and south of the forecast area as west northwesterly winds carry this activity into Kansas.

Wednesday will be a near carbon copy of today's setup. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Thunderstorms will once again develop off to the west of the forecast area along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming.
Mid level winds will be more westerly on Wednesday afternoon and evening. This setup will be more favorable for activity to impact the forecast area and thus the higher pops Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As for the severe threat, once again, SB CAPES, theta e ridging and mid level lapse rates are most favorable across the Panhandle. As activity moves east into the evening hours, weakening instability and decreased CAPES will limit the overall severe threat. However, decent moisture availability ie. PWATS of around 1.5 inches will be favorable for possible heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Northwest flow will continue through the end of the week. A disturbance on Thursday will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The Upper level ridge then begins to build back in from the west pushing the northwest flow eastward with the ridge becoming centered over the central CONUS. WAA increases to the region by the latter half of the weekend and will start to see a return to hot temperatures with highs reaching mid 90s Sunday and Monday. At this time although there will be hotter temperatures and low level moisture does increase, heat indicies will still remain below any heat headline criteria. Will need to continue to monitor as we get closer to the weekend into early next week.

As far as precipitation potential for the end of the week into the weekend, at this time expect mostly dry conditions, Friday through Sunday as the region remains under the upper level ridge.
As for fire weather concerns, it will remain low through the end of the week, then will need to monitor heading into the weekend as dry conditions move in with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western and southwest Nebraska this evening, with a threat for brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

Winds remain southeasterly this afternoon, at 5 to 10kts. Winds then become light and variable overnight, at 5kts or less.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.