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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 943 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Overnight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 68 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 040512 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 112 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west. A series of cold fronts will swing eastward Thursday through Saturday. A trough lingers over the area into the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
9:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for tonight with no changes needed.

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening. Afternoon cumulus is quickly dissipating with sunset. This will leave clear skies across the region.

Original Discussion...

Surface high pressure will stick around for one more day and allow for continued warmth and mostly sunny skies through Wednesday. Our pattern change begins tonight as an upper trough over the northern Plains will move eastward and cause the mid/upper ridge to exit east. We should remain dry through Wednesday night ahead of the surface cold front, though high level clouds will slowly build in overhead from the west by Wednesday morning.

Southerly flow will allow for overnight lows to remain above average in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s tonight and Wednesday night.
Afternoon highs on Wednesday about 10-15 degrees above average as they rise the mid 80s areawide.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The dry, warm weather pattern will come to a screeching halt Thursday through the end of the workweek. On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the west and scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will blossom ahead of it. Guidance is trending a bit slower with the arrival of precipitation, so it's possible that shower activity remains to the west of the CWA until the front begins to move east into western zones Thursday night. The front will take its time moving across the area before exiting to the east on Friday afternoon or evening. By Friday evening, most spots should see a quarter to half an inch of rain before cold air advection and continued troughing aloft allow lake-enhanced rain showers to develop late in the period.

Thursday will feature one last day of above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, highs will be in the near normal upper 60s to lower 70s before temps plummet into 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper low will park over the lower Great Lakes Saturday through early next week with multiple disturbances pivoting across the CWA.
This will result in several days of periodic scattered lake effect rain showers and below normal temperatures. Highs will generally hover in the 50s through Monday, but a few spots in NW PA may remain in the upper 40s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be quite chilly as well; currently have forecast minimum temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Frost is not a concern at the moment due to breezy winds and high cloud cover. The upper low should start lifting north/northeast of the area by Tuesday, allowing shower coverage to diminish late Monday into Tuesday. In addition, temps may begin to moderate to the upper 50s to lower 60s by the end of the period.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this TAF period as high pressure continues to influence the area.
There is a non-zero chance of patchy fog development across the southeastern tier of counties, possibly impacting KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG by early morning, however confidence in the extent of development remains low so opted to keep it out of the TAFs with this update. High clouds will begin to push east by Wednesday afternoon. Light and variable winds will persist through daybreak before increasing to 5-10 knots from the south- southwest this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Thursday into Friday. Non- VFR more likely for Friday into Saturday in rain and/or lower ceilings.

MARINE
East winds 5 to 10 knots this evening will gradually shift to the south/southeast tonight through Wednesday. Southwest flow deepens to 10 to 15 knots as a cold front approaches from the west Thursday before winds become westerly and increase to 15 to 20 knots on Friday. The next opportunity for a Small Craft Advisory will likely arrive Friday evening through the end of the weekend and likely into early next week as west/northwest winds increase to 15 to 25 knots in response to strong cold air advection.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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