Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vermilion, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hot and humid conditions are expected across the region this week.

2) Low chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, then again on Friday as the surface high pressure breaks down.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will begin to build to the southeast as upper level ridging moves into the eastern half of CONUS. Concurrently, a low pressure system will move north across the Great Plains dragging a warm front through the region during the day tomorrow. This will bring much warmer and humid air in from the west-southwest and temperatures will begin to rise well above average starting tomorrow. The warm front will only clear the western counties in Ohio by tomorrow evening, and heat indices will rise as a result and exceed 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the I-75 corridor starting noon tomorrow. Hot and humid conditions will spread to the remainder of the area as the warm front pushes north Monday evening. An additional Heat Advisory has been issued for the rest of Northern Ohio starting at noon on Tuesday to account for this increased temperatures and heat indices. Both Heat Advisories will run through Thursday evening, though hot and humid conditions may last into the weekend with lower confidence. Heat indices will be the highest Wednesday and Thursday as they approach 105, with areas out west potentially eclipsing that mark. An upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for at least the I-75 corridor during that time period. To go along with the daytime heat, overnight lows will be warm as well. Temperatures will only drop down into the mid to upper 70s this week, providing little relief to to the heat. As mentioned above, confidence in heat related headlines decreases with the high pressure breaking down into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along a stationary boundary that is located across the Ohio Valley. The best chance for any showers would be in eastern Ohio as the drift northward. Additionally, showers and possible in Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania as well with interaction with the lake breeze. The boundary will move to the south this evening and precipitation chances will decrease. Tomorrow, as the warm front pushes north, there is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania in the late evening to early morning on Tuesday.

Late in the week the upper level ridge will begin to break down and the surface high will weaken. A few long range models depict a shortwave moving through the region on Friday that could bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Will need to monitor how this unfolds throughout the week as there could be potential for organized thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
Conditions continue to improve across the area this afternoon, with southern terminals holding on to MVFR conditions for a few more hours. Isolated showers and an occasional thunderstorm are possible south of a line from KCAK to KYNG, but confidence in timing and location is very low. Expect VFR and light east to northeast winds this evening into the early overnight hours. Low stratus and fog will return to terminals in the southern potion of the CWA overnight into early morning, with pockets of LIFR expected south of a line from KMFD to KYNG. Wind will shift southeasterly but remain light.
VFR conditions return Monday afternoon and evening with winds becoming southerly. No precipitation is expected.

Outlook...VFR.

MARINE
High pressure will persist over the area into Monday before a warm front begins to lift north across the basin. Light northeast winds this evening will gradually veer to become south-southwesterly at 5-10 knots Monday night. Once the warm front fully lifts north, high pressure will build over the eastern US and persist into at least Friday. Southwest winds of 5-10 knots will be maintained through that period.

CLIMATE
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records for each of our climate stations:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003- 006-017.
Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.