Des Moines, IA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Des Moines, IA

February 20, 2024 4:01 PM CST (22:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:01 AM   Sunset 5:54 PM
Moonrise 2:02 PM   Moonset 5:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Des Moines, IA
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Area Discussion for - Des Moines, IA
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FXUS63 KDMX 202041 AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 241 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through much of this week

- Low chances for precipitation (< 25%) in southeast Iowa Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief cooldown and breezy Thursday and Friday

- Warming trend picks up again on Saturday, with highs pushing 70 by Monday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Quiet and mild conditions continue today as southwesterly flow and upper level ridging keeps temperatures warm throughout Iowa. A few sites in southwest Iowa have already reached or exceeded 60 degrees early this afternoon, with the rest of the state well into the 50s.
Some thin cloud cover has begun to filter sunshine over portions of the state, which has limited temperatures some, but should be moving fast enough to not have a significant impact on highs.

Surface flow will continue to drift more southerly tonight, but quickly switches back to westerly by tomorrow as another boundary passes early Wednesday morning. This, in conjunction with increasing cloud cover, makes the temperature forecast a bit tricky for tomorrow. The lack of sunshine and relatively light, variable flow will limit the amount of mixing possible, and therefore keep temperatures from reaching their maximum potential. However, Wednesday will have much warmer 850 mb temperatures than today, which would also imply warmer temperatures at the surface for whatever mixing does take place. Therefore, kept highs fairly similar to today's but like the overnight discussion mentioned, there will be a high bust potential for temperatures tomorrow.

Increasing clouds on Wednesday will precede an upper level wave moving into the central US, as well as it’s associated surface low that will pass to the south of the state Wednesday night into Thursday. As of right now, the track and progression of this surface low has remained fairly consistent among guidance since this time yesterday. Therefore, the best precipitation chances still remain south of the state where the better moisture supply resides, with only low end chances (15-25%) clipping our southeast. A few of the short range models (namely the HRRR) are trying to produce a few convective showers at the northern edge of the better instability in east central Iowa early Thursday. These will have a good deal of dry air to overcome, but with ~500 J/kg of MUCAPE and convective-like processes possible, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see some rainfall out of these, as well as a rumble of thunder or two.
Any showers or convection that does form, will be fairly scattered and quickly departs to the east shortly after formation.

CAM guidance has also started to show a strip of lighter precipitation over northern Iowa/southern Minnesota as this system passes late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will be coincident with a band of elevated frontogenesis on the backside of the low where values of higher omega are present. However, much like the convective showers, the limiting factor with this northern rainfall will be reaching saturation. Soundings show a good deal of dry air throughout the layer, especially in the levels below 850 mb.
Given the amount of dry air, have held off on adding any mentionable precipitation chances for northern Iowa, although it’s certainly possible at least a few sprinkles could be seen early Thursday morning.

Temperatures cool Thursday and Friday on the backside of this wave, albeit still well above normal for late February. These relatively cooler temperatures don’t stick around long though, with thermal ridging building back in again beginning Saturday. By the time we get to Monday, high temperatures could be pushing near 70 for the southern half of the state. Another upper level trough then looks to dig in across the US around Tuesday, which could bring us our next precipitation chances and another push of cooler air mid-week.
However, with this being 7+ days out, tough to get too latched onto anything at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Widespread VFR conditions are forecast for the entire forecast period with unrestricted visibilities and any ceilings originating from high cirrus clouds. Surface winds remain modest from the southwest today becoming light south tonight.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDSM DES MOINES INTL,IA 3 sm67 minSSW 0810 smPartly Cloudy63°F23°F22%30.00
KIKV ANKENY RGNL,IA 10 sm26 minS 089 smClear63°F27°F25%29.99
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