Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chardon, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry, quiet weather will continue through the near term as upper level ridging builds into the south-central CONUS. A weak cold front will be crossing the region late tonight into Wednesday, though with a fairly dry airmass, little to no precipitation is expected. Only area that may see some light precipitation would be far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, but still not expecting anything measurable overnight. High pressure will build in to the north behind the front starting on Wednesday.

Other forecast note for the near term would be the frost/freeze potential for Wednesday night. As the high pressure drifts eastward, the environmental will be conducive for radiational cooling as winds will be light to calm. Temperatures overnight will be down into the mid to upper 30s across the south and eastern portions of the CWA with parts of northwest Pennsylvania potentially seeing low 30s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Quiet weather remains through the short term as the surface high pressure builds eastward to the end the week. Similar to Wednesday night, there will be frost/freeze potential on Thursday night. Only difference between Wednesday and Thursday is that the high pressure will be more directly overhead, and with clear skies and calm winds, radiational cooling will be more effective and widespread. Areas east of I-71 away from the lakeshore will be in the mid 30s, with eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania down into the low 30s. Out west, cloud cover will start to move in so it will limit how cool the area will get, but lows will still be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

On Friday a warm front will move north across the region and there will be a low chance for precipitation Friday evening into the overnight. Temperatures will also start to climb back up with the southerly flow with highs on Friday being in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Active weather is in store for the long term as an upper level trough moves across southern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
A surface low will track to the north of the region and drag a cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. There is high confidence in widespread precipitation for this time period with a few isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Though there is some uncertainty in how the overall system develops over the course of the weekend. Upper level ridging will build in behind to start next week and cooler, drier weather is expected for the majority of the region. Temperatures will be seasonally average, or just slightly below average for the long term, with the only exception being Saturday after the warm front with high in the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
High pressure is advancing into the region behind a cold front.
Some low level moisture is turning into some low VFR/MVFR clouds across northern Ohio. There may be some brief ceilings before the mid-level clouds enter later this morning. Northerly flow off Lake Erie may allow for these 2500-4000 ft clouds to continue under the mid cloud deck in North Central and Northeast Ohio. Otherwise, a drier air mass with the high pressure system will enter and clouds will exit south through the afternoon hours with clear conditions expected tonight. Northerly winds will be favored through the period around 10 kts. There could be a brief gust to 20 kt during the late afternoon, if there is some mixing with the clearing skies.

Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Periods of rain showers will bring likely non-VFR conditions late Friday night through the weekend.

MARINE
Northerly flow will increase behind a cold front this evening, resulting in winds to 15 to 20 knots and waves of 2 to 5 feet from The Islands east to Conneaut, OH later this evening into Wednesday morning. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory one zone west to the Islands. Waves may very briefly reach or exceed 4 feet from Conneaut, OH to Ripley, NY overnight, but would like to see how winds/waves trend before extending the advisory east to the border of the CWA

North/northeast winds will diminish for a period Wednesday afternoon before possibly briefly returning to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisories may be needed (or extended) to account for this period of increased flow. Winds are expected to diminish to 5 to 10 knots by late Thursday morning with relatively light southerly flow developing by Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots ahead of a cold front Friday night through Saturday with southwest winds increasing further Saturday night through Sunday. The strongest winds as high as 20 to 30 knots will likely occur Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed at some point during the weekend, best chance on Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ144>148.