Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Williston, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Primarily scattered rain showers will impact portions of North and Northwest Ohio Thursday morning. There is a low chance for a brief period of light freezing rain near the I-75 corridor Thursday morning.

2) A pair of systems will impact the region on Friday and Sunday with primarily rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Sunday's system will drag a stronger cold front through the area.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...
A weak trough will move east through the Central and Lower Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing mainly scattered rain showers across portions of North and Northwest Ohio Thursday morning.
With the cold air mass in place, a brief period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out near the I-75 corridor, though marginal surface temperatures at or just above freezing should largely limit any road impacts. Temperatures will quickly increase into the 40s behind the trough by early to mid-Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE #2...
A pair of low pressure systems will move through the region on Friday and Sunday, bringing generally rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms across the area. The first system will impact primarily the eastern half of the area as it moves east through the Eastern Great Lakes. The latest model guidance does suggest some minimal moisture recovery near the US-30 and east of the I-71 corridors by the mid to late afternoon which could yield surface instability around 500 J/kg. Chances are low, but can't rule out a stronger storm or two with small hail given the strong northwest deep layer shear in place.

The second system will arrive on Sunday which will bring another round of rain, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday. The latest guidance indicates slightly stronger moisture return with this system ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening, though at this time, the highest shear/instability overlap probabilities more favorable for organized thunderstorms remain just south of the area. Will continue to monitor trends over the next couple of days. A colder air mass will briefly return to the area behind the front with temperatures in the 40s on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Largely going to be dealing with 3-5kft ceilings as high pressure builds into the region while low level moisture takes its time exiting. Light rain possible at TOL this morning in a TEMPO group, but the forecast is mainly dry. Winds variable through the period with the aforementioned high pressure moving in, but under 10kts and no gusts expected.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers and low ceilings Friday and Sunday.

MARINE
South winds 10 to 20 knots are expected early this evening before winds shift to the southwest and diminish to 10 knots or less tonight. Winds are expected to become light and variable Thursday afternoon with south/southwest flow developing and deepening to about 15 knots on Friday afternoon. Winds will then shift to the northwest and remain in the 5 to 10 knots range Friday night into Saturday. The next opportunity for Small Craft Advisories arrive as early as Sunday as the passage of a cold front produces west/northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots.
Confidence in Small Craft Advisory conditions is highest as north/northeast winds increase to 20 to 25 knots in response to strong high pressure building into the region on Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.