Ogden Dunes, IN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogden Dunes, IN

April 21, 2024 4:01 AM CDT (09:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM
Moonrise 5:36 PM   Moonset 5:01 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ744 Expires:202404211500;;118195 Fzus53 Klot 210826 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 326 am cdt Sun apr 21 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-211500- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 326 am cdt Sun apr 21 2024

Today - West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.

Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Clear. Waves around 1 ft.

Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves building to 1 to 3 ft.

Monday night - South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Showers likely overnight. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.

LMZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogden Dunes, IN
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 210700 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Freeze for areas west/southwest of Chicago this morning with frost likely elsewhere outside of Chicago.

- Areas of frost likely late tonight away from Chicago.

- Elevated fire danger Monday.

- A period of inclement weather with periods of showers and storms likely towards the end of next week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Through Monday:

Clouds are slowly clearing from northwest to southeast early this morning. Where clouds have cleared across northwest IL, temps have dropped into the upper 20s to around 30 with light winds. The clouds are still expected to clear out across northwest IN by daybreak but the slower this process takes, the less time there will be for temps to drop and frost to form but not planning any changes to the current headlines, which expire at 13Z. Temps will steadily increase through the morning with highs in the upper 50s/around 60 for most locations today, with mostly sunny skies. A lake breeze will move into northwest IN and possible the far southern Cook County shore, keeping temps cooler for those areas.

Clear skies and light winds tonight should allow for a favorable frost potential and maintained areas of frost outside of Chicago. There is some weak warm air advection overnight and much of guidance keeps temps generally in the mid 30s, with the usual cool spots dipping into the lower 30s. Thus, confidence is only medium for how much frost will form tonight. Given the current headlines, opted to hold off on any potential headlines for tonight.

Monday will be warmer with highs back into the mid 60s, perhaps a few locations tagging upper 60s. Southwest winds will increase and gust into the 25-30 mph range, especially northwest of I-57.
Dewpoints may remain in the upper 20s/lower 30s with minimum relative humidity levels in the mid/upper 20 percent range, resulting in an elevated fire danger Monday. cms

Monday Night through Saturday:

An initial wave of primarily warm advection-driven showers will develop on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Instability continues to look pretty limited, so we'll continue to withhold thunder chances from the forecast during this period although can't entirely rule out a lightning strike or two. During the day on Tuesday, while some timing and placement differences remain, it looks like the greatest shower chances towards midday and early- afternoon may shift south and east of us as the main ribbon of low-level warm advection develops into central Illinois and Indiana. Once this period gets in range of more of the extended hires guidance, we may be able to refine and chop PoPs a bit during this time period.

Ahead of the main cold front, which will still be located to our north Tuesday afternoon, temperatures look to surge into the mid and upper 60s--possibly near 70 in spots--in the wake of morning showers and cloud cover. Model guidance is coming into better agreement now depicting a region of rapidly-steepening low-level (0-3 km) lapse rates towards dry adiabatic, particularly north and west of I-55. At the same time, mid and upper-level temperatures will be cooling as the parent upper vort max/trough axis presses into northern Illinois. This combination looks like it will support some degree of destabilization with a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE materializing as mid-level lapse rates steepen in response to cooling 500 mb temperatures. ELs nearing -20 C will support the chance for some electrification, and continue to advertise isolated thunder wording in the gridded forecast during the afternoon as a result, with the expectation that low-topped convection will materialize ahead of the incoming cold front.
While there's variability regarding EL heights (which will modulate effective bulk shear values), there may be enough shear within the convective cloud layer to support some more organized updrafts and a threat for hail, as well as gusty winds given the deeply-mixed nature of the boundary layer.

A strong cold front will arrive through Tuesday evening, shutting off precipitation chances except for possibly some lingering drizzle near the lake where enhanced convergence and deeper moisture (up through 800 mb) may hang on for a time. Cold advection will push a notably cooler airmass back into the region, with some near-freezing overnight lows possible across interior portions of northern Illinois. This doesn't look like much of a frost threat given the anticipated winds, but something we'll monitor given the threat for some sub-freezing temps.

Wednesday will feature highs which will struggle to make much headway through the 40s near the lake, with low to mid 50s farther inland. The threat for frost will build Wednesday night/Thursday morning as winds ease.

Thereafter, guidance is in general agreement of another active stretch of weather in the vicinity as a series of disturbances pinwheel across the central CONUS towards the end of the week and through next weekend. While significant timing and placement differences remain, a handful of model solutions suggest we'll need to keep a close eye on a threat for severe weather.

Carlaw

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The only aviation weather concerns are:

- Timing the cessation of VFR cigs - Potential lake breeze at GYY this afternoon

VFR cigs will gradually clear all of the Chicago-area terminals tonight with W-NW winds prevailing with intermittent gusts to 15-20 knots developing into the afternoon. A lake breeze looks like it may push through GYY, although confidence remains a bit too low to introduce a NE wind shift at this point. If this were to occur, main timing looks to be around 20z.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ003-ILZ004- ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021- ILZ032.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ006-ILZ013- ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.

IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.

LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 2 mi81 min NNW 8G12 40°F 30.18
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 16 mi41 min NW 11G12 39°F 30.1722°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi61 min W 5.1G8 39°F
CNII2 28 mi31 min WNW 7G11 40°F 21°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi41 min WNW 11G16 41°F 25°F
OKSI2 31 mi121 min NNW 4.1G6 41°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi61 min NNW 11G14 41°F 30.16


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGYY GARY/CHICAGO INTL,IN 12 sm26 minNW 0910 smOvercast39°F23°F52%30.18
KVPZ PORTER COUNTY RGNL,IN 15 sm65 minWNW 0710 smOvercast37°F25°F60%30.17
KIGQ LANSING MUNI,IL 20 sm26 minNW 0510 smOvercast37°F25°F60%30.19
KMGC MICHIGAN CITY MUNIPHILLIPS FIELD,IN 20 sm26 minNW 0310 smOvercast37°F25°F60%30.18
KPPO LA PORTE MUNI,IN 24 sm26 minNW 0610 smOvercast37°F23°F56%30.17
Link to 5 minute data for KGYY


Wind History from GYY
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Chicago, IL,



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