Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toledo, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warmer air will return today and persist through early next week. There will be several chances for rain this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
After a cold start to our Tuesday morning, the weather pattern will shift to warmer temperatures starting later today. High pressure over the region will shift towards the East Coast later today. A return of southerly winds will advect in much warmer weather today with high temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 60s over NWPA and the upper 60s to lower 70s over NEOH and NWOH. Fair weather skies will continue for today with mostly sunny conditions. A weak front will drift southward across the lower Great Lakes region tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunder possible. No severe weather is expected. Some scattered rain showers may linger into Wednesday over portions of central Ohio, south of Highway 30. Temperatures will not be impacted by the passage of the front on Wednesday with highs back in the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s.

An upper level ridge will move eastward from the Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Thursday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with even warmer temperatures by Thursday afternoon. Thursday's high temps will climb into the lower to upper 70s. And the spring like warmth will continue for Friday with high temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. A weak cold front will move from west to east across the region late on Friday with scattered showers and isolated thunder possible. Rain chances will become likely Friday evening and overnight. Temperatures will cool back down to near seasonable average this weekend but remain in the middle to upper 60s. Temperatures will warm back upwards by next Monday ahead of the next weather system moving across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
The area will start with VFR and mostly clear conditions and light southerly flow with high pressure departing east this morning. Some mid- and high-level clouds will enter through the early morning hours and spread across the terminals. For Tuesday, a warm front will cross the area and allow for enhanced south to southwest flow across the region. Gusts of 20 to 30 kts are expected with good mixing in the warm sector. The front will come back south as a cold front tonight and bring some scattered showers to the region. Showers could have some embedded thunder within them, but too low of confidence to include in a TAF at this time. In addition, the intensity of any rainfall with the showers appears low and the potential for non-VFR with the rain is decreasing. Ceilings will lower with and behind the boundary and some MVFR is possible just after the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday.

MARINE
The lake is starting out quiet early this morning with light southerly flow over the basin. A warm front moving through the region will allow for increasing south to southwest flow this afternoon. The winds should hit a wall with the cold dome over the lake and suspect that winds will generally stay in the 10 to 15 kt range except for right at the lakeshore. The warm frontal boundary will sag south as a cold front tonight into Wednesday and bring some light onshore flow. High pressure will then enter over the lake and bring light and variable flow. This system will move east for Thursday and allow for light southerly flow to be favored. A low pressure system will target the region for Friday and Saturday. Southeast to east flow will increase ahead of this system on Friday. There is some uncertainty on the trajectory for this system over the weekend but once the system passes, winds will shift to the north for Saturday and Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ009>014- 018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.