Toledo, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toledo, OH

November 28, 2023 6:05 AM EST (11:05 UTC)
Sunrise 7:36AM   Sunset 5:07PM   Moonrise  5:53PM   Moonset 9:14AM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 947 Pm Est Mon Nov 27 2023
.low water advisory in effect until 3 am est Tuesday...
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of snow showers late this evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 47 degrees.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toledo, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 322 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

A trough lingers over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley today before high pressure builds briefly from the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Another weak trough will move through the Great Lakes and graze our area on Wednesday. Low pressure lifts out of the Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Lake effect snow is ongoing along the I-90 corridor from just east of Cleveland through Northwest PA early this morning, with the snow slowly sagging south towards the metro area and into more of the snowbelt. The entire primary snowbelt along with portions of the secondary snowbelt will see intense lake effect snow this morning with impacts to the morning commute. The big picture remains on track and we are not making any headline changes with this update.

While it took a little while to organize and begin pushing onshore Monday evening, we have an intense band of lake effect snow with rates of 1 to locally 2 inches per hour ongoing early this morning. The band is currently impacting Lake, northern Geauga, Ashtabula, Erie and northern Crawford Counties and will sag south over the next several hours as a shortwave passes and veers the winds more northwesterly. This is expected to lead to snow picking up in the Cleveland area starting around 5 AM, with snow beginning to quickly push inland across the rest of the snowbelt over the next few hours. Conditions remain supportive of 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates within this band as it sags into the Cleveland area and southern portions of the snowbelt, so significant impacts to the commute are still on track with conditions going from a few flurries to heavy snow quickly as this band pushes in. We'll likely see our current organized band break up into less organized multi-bands with snow rates significantly weakening along the lakeshore as the winds veer through the morning. It's likely that this band still gets into northern Portage County and a good portion of Trumbull County before breaking up this morning. Only have 3-4"+ type amounts grazing northeastern Lorain and northern Summit in the forecast.
Based on a good connection back to Lake Michigan and winds coming around to about 290 degrees (solidly west-northwest)
through the morning do think that far northern portions of Lorain and Summit will still get into a pretty good burst of snow, though the band may get hung up and break apart before it can get farther south into those counties based on how it's been rather sluggish to progress south so far this morning.

There remains some signal for a more coherent band to persist for several hours later this morning into the early afternoon from central and eastern Cuyahoga County into parts of Geauga County, possibly clipping adjacent portions of northern Summit and Portage and sneaking into northwestern Trumbull. This could lead to more organized and impactful snow hanging on here while the rest of the snowbelt transitions to weaker multi-bands and upslope-driven snow showers, which will favor the higher terrain for continued light to moderate accumulations into this afternoon. As winds back and weaken tonight convergence will increase along the eastern lakeshore, which should allow a band of light to moderate snow to re-organize east of Cleveland this evening. The snow won't be as heavy as this morning's snow and should be gradually moving, so am not expecting more than a 1 to 3 inch type deal with tonight's resurgence of snow along the I- 90 corridor from just east of Cleveland into Northwest PA. Still, will keep the current end times of the warnings as it's easier for us to cancel them early than the other way around.

With the bulk of the snow falling now or over the next few hours the storm total snowfall isn't as important by the time most folks read this, though it's worth noting that when incorporating what fell through last evening and what we have in the forecast grids from here on out that for the most part the numbers remain consistent with prior forecasts, with just a modest decrease in a few spots due to Monday's relatively light amounts coming in even lighter than expected in extreme Northeastern Ohio. Amounts on the southwestern fringe in Lorain, southwestern Cuyahoga, northern Medina and Summit decreased just a bit based on observed trends for the band to sag south slightly slower than expected. The most notable departure is across parts of northern Erie County PA. The band lifted out over the lake and crushed southwestern NY last evening instead of dropping heavy snow on northern Erie County. While the snow has finally pushed onshore there, total snowfall amounts may end up several inches lower than initial expectations north of I-90 in parts of Erie County PA. Such is the nature of lake effect, though it appears all of the warnings and most of the advisories are still on track.

Outside of the lake effect, a surface trough will drop across the rest of our forecast area this morning and stir up flurries and scattered snow showers. Most snow showers will produce a dusting at most, though a few more moderate snow showers may occur from Northwest OH towards the Mansfield area given the connection to Lake Michigan and steep low-level lapse rates. A few more moderate snow showers will likely break away from Lake Erie and push towards the Youngstown area a bit later this morning. It will remain very cold and windy today with highs ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds will gust 25 to 35 MPH, strongest near Lake Erie. Lows will again fall into the upper 10s and low- mid 20s tonight. Any flurries away from the lake effect snow should subside by this evening as drier air begins advecting in from the southwest. A shortwave and associated surface trough will glance extreme Northeast OH and Northwest PA on Sunday. This may bring some lake enhanced snow showers (possibly mixed with rain) to parts of Ashtabula and Erie Counties Wednesday afternoon and evening with any snow accumulations on the order of one inch or less. Highs on Wednesday will range from the low to mid 30s where deep snowpack exists in the higher terrain of the snowbelt to near 40 in Northwest Ohio.

Pattern change in the works as the southern jet stream will become the dominant weather maker for the CWA in southwesterly flow aloft, which will mean a warming trend back to near normal for the region.
Upper trough swinging out of the southern plains towards the Ohio Valley will be filling as it does so, as will the surface low associated with it, but should still get a fairly good shot of rain from it as it clips the area while pushing eastward. As of right now, there is some higher QPF in the southern zones that could push an inch with this system, but will have to keep an eye on the low level moisture transport into the CWA. For now, there are some inconsistencies in the operational models with how far north this moisture push will reach. Despite these questions, expecting a nearly CWA-wide rainfall event Thursday night through Friday with a fairly efficient exit.

A couple more systems in the progressive southwesterly flow aloft for the extended. The first is a relatively weak lingering surface trough in the wake of the Friday low pressure system with some PVA aloft in the 500mb flow early Saturday. An upper trough brings the next round of precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday while a coastal low develops east of the Appalachians. Temperatures near normal, and the cold air remains locked well north of the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Lake effect snow currently impacting ERI will push into CLE and YNG near or shortly before 12z. Lake effect will bring IFR to LIFR visibility, along with rapid snow accumulations beneath the bands. ERI will be dealing with lake effect through the rest of the TAF, though should see some improvement after sunrise as the heavier snow focuses inland of the terminal. Snow may ramp back up at ERI Tuesday evening. Activity should shift east and northeast of CLE and YNG into Tuesday afternoon. Outside of the lake effect, mainly VFR conditions are most prevalent. As a trough currently over southern Michigan pushing south across the area this morning some snow showers will be possible, along with a period of MVFR ceilings. This activity should clear and allow VFR to prevail outside of the lake effect once again this afternoon.

Generally westerly flow is expected through the TAF period, though winds that are currently more west-southwest will veer west-northwest this morning, before shifting more southwesterly into tonight. Speeds of 10 to 18 knots will be common with gusts of 20 to 25 knots through this afternoon, diminishing into tonight.

Outlook...Periodic lake-effect snow with non-VFR is expected to persist in portions of NE OH and NW PA through Wednesday night.
Rain may mix with the snow at times on Wednesday, especially over/near Lake Erie. Scattered rain showers with non-VFR are possible Thursday evening through Friday night.

The central and eastern basin open water zones will be dealing with 20-30kt winds and wave heights 4-8ft through around Thursday, with slightly lower wave heights towards the Thursday time frame.
Northwest winds 20-30kts become southwesterly 20-30kts tonight through Thursday. The long running Small Craft Advisory expires for the western basin late this afternoon and for the central and eastern basins tonight as the flow becomes slightly offshore. There may be a need at some point to extend these Advisories based on the wind speeds alone or if the southwest winds are not offshore enough for the lakeshore east of Willowick and the wave heights stay up along the shoreline with the parallel wind flows. Either way, the week remains very active on Lake Erie with the weather pattern in place.

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ010- 021>023.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until midnight EST tonight for OHZ011.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 6 mi47 min WNW 8G12 22°F 29.9818°F
TWCO1 17 mi35 min WNW 19G25 23°F 19°F
CMPO1 31 mi95 min W 9.9G19 22°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 39 mi65 min W 26G31 25°F 29.99
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 46 mi47 min W 7G14 23°F 43°F29.9615°F

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Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDUH TOLEDO SUBURBAN,MI 7 sm10 minW 081/4 smOvercast Snow 21°F19°F93%30.03
KTDZ TOLEDO EXECUTIVE,OH 9 sm12 minW 1010 smOvercast25°F16°F68%30.04
KTOL TOLEDO EXPRESS,OH 13 sm13 minW 1210 smOvercast21°F16°F79%30.03
KTTF CUSTER,MI 21 sm10 minWNW 0810 smOvercast23°F16°F74%30.02

Wind History from DUH
(wind in knots)

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