Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Buffalo, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Flow trajectories will shift to the southwest and advect an Ohio Valley theta-e plume into the area tonight with periods of rain and drizzle. This moisture advection will take place over a persistent near sfc inversion that has held low clouds and cooler temps in place for most since Tuesday. A weak lead shortwave may also bring greatest coverage of showers this evening into the early overnight hours.

The main upper level vort and attendant sfc reflection, over MO as of this writing, will continue east-northeast through the area during the day on Thursday. Deeper moisture/forcing and marginal elevated instability with lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C/km will accompany this more pronounced shortwave with embedded heavier showers/storms capable of small hail and heavier rainfall. Overall expectations tonight into Thursday are for rainfall totals to generally end up in the 0.50-0.75" range, though locally higher amounts possible given the potential convective elements (best chances south of US 24).

Friday will feature a taste of spring as southwesterly flow deepens in advance of a digging Rockies/High Plains upper trough. Resulting lee side cyclogenesis over the Plains will also help transport gulf moisture (~60F sfc dewpoint) and mild air northward within a developing 30-50 kt low level jet. Current expectations are for the bulk of the day to be dry/breezy with the main moisture channel initially west toward the MS River Valley. However, did retain PoPs (highest, 40-60%, over nw IN and sw MI) as there could be a few lower amplitude lead waves that could clip the local area.

Models remain in good agreement on the aformentioned Plains/Rockies low pressure system ejecting northeast through the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes Friday night. A cold front, and possibly a pre- frontal trough, will trail this feature through the area later Friday night into Saturday morning with chances for showers and storms. SPC's marginal severe risk (1 out of 5) still looks good for this timeframe given strong background flow and near 60 dewpoints if any upstream activity can hold together this far east for a low end wind/hail threat. Trending cooler, yet still above normal, and dry then post-frontal into Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 610 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

An area of rain is gradually lifting north through the state amid the expanding warm sector of a low over southern IL. High confidence in deteriorating conditions within the critical TAF period as rain, fog, and low ceilings develop. The duration of rain is somewhat uncertain with perhaps two different periods of rain, the latter of which may bypass KSBN. Steady east wind for most of the TAF period veers southwesterly at KFWA as the low passes through Indiana. Low confidence on the advertised, subtle improvement late in the TAF period but rain does indeed appear to end in the afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.