Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Perry, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Southerly winds will remain gusty at times through early Monday.
Winds shift southwest and stay strong through the day Monday, gradually easing Monday night. Showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm along a cold front may also briefly enhance wind gusts late tonight and early Monday, mainly across Northwest and North Central Ohio.

2) Wintry weather returns late Monday and Tuesday with wind chills dropping into the single digits. Accumulating snow is likely in the primary snowbelt region, with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

3) Limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend expected Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...

Southerly winds are quickly turning gusty this afternoon as daytime heating allows mixing to deepen into a strengthening low-level jet overhead. A Wind Advisory has kicked in for much of the area, with a High Wind Warning for Erie County PA. A couple of 50kt/58 MPH gusts are possible in Northwest Ohio through late this afternoon as has been observed to our southwest, though think this would be on a brief and localized basis so am holding with the advisory there.

A very strong low-level jet (65-75kt at 850mb, 40-55kt at 925mb)
will remain in place through early Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. The overall strongest winds in this regime will occur in Erie County PA this evening through pre-dawn Monday, where downsloping will bring potential for some gusts over warning criteria of 50kt/58 MPH, particularly across the northwestern third of the county between the ridge tops and lakeshore. Some downsloping will occur close to the Northeast OH lakeshore as far west as the Cleveland area, though to a somewhat lesser magnitude with occasional advisory-level (40-49kt or 46-57 MPH) gusts favored in this area. Elsewhere, wind gusts will likely lull at times overnight in the overall warm advection regime as the near-surface cools and stabilizes a bit, though it will remain gusty at times.

We'll likely see some uptick in wind gusts from west to east late tonight into early Monday as the front progresses through. A Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) remains in place west of the I-77 corridor for overnight tonight. While there's good agreement at this point that meager (<100 J/KG of SBCAPE) will be in place across the local area with convection expected to be weakening as it comes in, a lack of a stronger near-surface inversion and strong linear forcing along the front may allow a somewhat organized, low-topped QLCS to push into the western half of our area before completely weakening. If this pans out, any more formidable line segments could locally enhance winds to severe limits (50kt/58 MPH or greater) and bring potential for tree/power-line damage. It's worth noting that given the meager instability, any severe weather may occur in the absence of lightning. Confidence in severe weather remains low to medium, and feel the marginal risk for damaging winds covers it well. Even without convection, the quick pressure rise/couplet with the front and vertical motion associated with the cold front itself may also help force stronger wind gusts, perhaps back into advisory range, to the ground in proximity to the frontal passage. Confidence in advisory-level non-convective winds occurring with the frontal passage is not high, especially in our southeastern counties, though did expand the Wind Advisory to include the entire forecast area to be in collaboration with surrounding WFOs.

Behind the cold front, strong cold advection along with a decent pressure gradient and quick pressure rises will support continued gusty southwest winds on Monday. Flow aloft appears marginally strong enough to support some advisory-level gusts, especially west of the I-71 corridor and along the lakeshore. Have gone ahead and extended most of the wind headlines through early Monday evening, save for our far southeastern counties. One more extension may be needed along the eastern lakeshore into Monday night, though will allow future shifts to better evaluate that possibility.

Outside of a passing shower late this evening or tonight, we will remain dry and warm until the cold front brings a relatively narrow band of rain to the area late tonight into Monday morning. Overall rain amounts remain modest and have perhaps trended a bit lower, generally in a 0.10-0.40" range.

KEY MESSAGE #2...

It will remain very warm/mild until the cold front crosses very late tonight or Monday morning, with many areas staying in the upper 50s or lower 60s until the front crosses. Temperatures will then quickly fall on Monday, dipping below freezing from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening. By early Tuesday, air temperatures will bottom out between the upper 10s and lower 20s with wind chills dipping into the single digits. While not overly hazardous on its own, this will be quite jarring after recent (and ongoing as of this writing!) temperatures in the 70s and could affect outdoor St Patrick's Day plans. Highs on Tuesday will mostly stay in the 20s, with another night Tuesday night where large portions of the area will see air temperatures reach the 10s for lows.

With the cold comes snow potential. While the greatest potential for inches of accumulation will reside in parts of the snowbelt, much of the area stands to see at least a bit of the white stuff. The band of rain along the front will slow before exiting our eastern counties Monday afternoon, in response to the base of the incoming upper trough taking on a more neutral to negative tilt. This will allow the cold air to catch it enough that our far eastern counties may see a brief period of wet synoptic snow later Monday afternoon/early evening. Warm ground and marginal air temperatures should preclude any roadway impacts before sunset, though some locations may see some slushy/grassy accumulations from the synoptic snow from far eastern Ohio into Northwest PA. Otherwise, scattered snow showers are likely area-wide beneath the upper level trough with some moisture connection to Lake Michigan, particularly late Monday afternoon into the first half of Monday night as a sharp low-mid level trough axis swings through. The synoptic lift with the trough passage, weak low- level instability, and gusty background winds may allow snow showers late Monday afternoon or evening to be a bit "squally". As temperatures quickly plunge well below freezing into Monday evening, slick spots can develop on roads across the area where more organized/intense snow showers occur.

Shifting into the snowbelt, we are still looking at a brief window Monday night into Tuesday morning where conditions appear conducive for some late-season lake effect snow. Expect lake effect snow to begin developing and pushing onshore late Monday evening as winds align out of a west to slightly north of due west direction behind the passage of a low-mid level trough axis, with this general flow persisting until Tuesday afternoon when low-level ridging starts pushing in and backing the flow more southwesterly.

There is about a 15 hour window window starting around 8 PM Monday in which moderate lake-induced instability, good moisture/lift in the preferred dendritic growth zone, limited wind shear, multiple upstream lake moisture connections, and good convergence along the lakeshore near or just east of Cleveland will support moderate to heavy snow (peak rates around 1" per hour) within more organized lake effect snow bands. The main limiting factor is strong boundary layer winds over the lake (gale or near gale-force) until early Tuesday, which may impact band organization or at the least push snow farther inland. The secondary limiting factor is the time of year, with a strong negative diurnal influence on lake effect processes during the afternoon hours, limiting the window during which good accumulations can occur. Ultimately, continued to refine the snowfall forecast as higher resolution guidance comes into range and have a general 2 to 5" snowfall forecast across the primary snowbelt. The higher amounts will likely be found in the higher terrain away from the lakeshore, with most of the snow falling Monday night into Tuesday morning but with some lighter snow continuing into Tuesday night along the lakeshore. Advisories may be needed for the snow, especially keeping in mind that snow/impacts may peak during the Tuesday AM commute.

KEY MESSAGE #3:

The late taste of winter will be short-lived, with highs returning to the 50s Thursday into Friday and even some 60s becoming possible into the weekend. Minor precipitation chances are in the forecast for parts of the area on Wednesday, Thursday, and later Friday into Friday night. The precipitation on Wednesday may fall in the form of snow, though confidence in measurable precip is low as the system will be weakening as it comes in...with any snow not expected to be impactful during the daytime hours in mid-March.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
The main impactful weather concern for aviation and this TAF update will be the strong and very gusty winds during the entire time period. Winds from the south have ramped up 15 to 25 knots this afternoon with like gusts 35 to 45 knots, especially areas of northwest and north central Ohio. Conditions will remain VFR this afternoon into the late evening. Clouds will increase from west to east this evening and eventually MVFR ceilings will move in later tonight through the rest of the time period or 18z Monday. There will be a strong cold front that will sweep across the area late tonight into early Monday morning. There will also be a line or area of showers with isolated thunder possible associated with the frontal passage. This is mentioned with TEMPO groups from west to east late tonight/early Monday morning. A brief period of lower MVFR ceilings and visibility due to heavier showers will likely impact all TAF sites. At this time, we have only mentioned the potential for -TSRA at FDY and TOL but that may need to be added to TAFs further east with future updates. Ceilings will stay MVFR to low end MVFR on Monday.

The stronger winds this afternoon will decrease a little overnight but still remain in the 15 to 25 knot range and gusts to 35 knots tonight and Monday. Winds will also shift from southerly to southwesterly by Monday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR will likely persist with scattered rain showers changing to scattered snow showers on Monday. Lake effect snow showers and possible squalls will impact the Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA Monday night into Tuesday.

MARINE
Marine weather conditions are expected to be very rough today through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect today into tonight. A Gale Warning will take in effect for all of Lake Erie Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Southerly winds will increase 25 to 30 knots today and tonight.
Southwester to westerly Gales 35 to 40 knots will move over Lake Erie Monday through Tuesday morning. Gusts Monday will be up to 50 knots likely. Waves will be increase with the highest over the open basin up to 15 feet or more. Winds will slowly ease down Tuesday into Tuesday night but remain from the west 15 to 25 knots. Additional SCA will likely be needed after the Gale Warning. Winds and waves will be on the lighter side mid to end of next week, southerly around 10 knots

As the strong winds shift southwesterly to westerly behind the strong cold front Monday morning, water levels will likely drop in the western basin of Lake Erie. A Low Water Advisory has been issued Monday morning through Tuesday morning as water levels are expected to drop below the critical mark for safe marine navigation.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>031-036-037-047-089.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for OHZ032-033-038.
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ003.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>149.
Gale Warning from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>149-162>169.
Low Water Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>144-162>164.