Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgman, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The 990 mb low pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes today departs tonight taking the strong 60-65 kt low level jet with it. Given the strong pressure gradient and mixing up to around 850- 800 mb, at least wind advisory winds of around 45 mph or greater lasts until at least 00z and quite possibly for 1 to 4 more hours in NW OH.

This transitions to a dry day for Saturday as mid level heights rise and surface high pressure passes through the area. With the cold front that went through this morning, expect high temperatures to be around 5 degrees cooler for Saturday with 40s across most of the board.

As we head towards Sunday, a Pacific wave deepens over the Rockies and a phased upper jet and PV hook look continues to help deepen the low pressure system as it moves through the area quickly Sunday evening/night. The theta-e plume arrives around 12z Sunday with around 50 degree dew points at the surface. Given the arrival of the plume, there could be some clouds around and so we'll have to see what state instability is in for a severe weather chance during the afternoon and evening. A strong EML gets in here during the late night to early morning hours with around 8C/km mid level lapse rates. There appears to be some weakening of it by the time we get to the afternoon with more like 6.5 to 7.5 C/km mid level lapse rates, but that's adequate enough to still causing severe hail as a severe outcome if any isolated cells are able to form out in front of the cold front. Isolated cells are not a given, though, because it appears that the warm sector is rather dry and could be capped until the cold front arrives. If we are able to remain dry and mixed in the warm sector, we could see 35 to 45 mph gusts there as well.
Effective shear appears rather borderline with pockets of 30 kts around the area, but the effective helicity is also one that could contribute to embedded vorticies in what appears to be a squall line or qlcs type of event. This would allow damaging winds and a tornado to also be a threat along that line. Storm motion will probably factor into the damaging wind potential given that we'll start with 40 to 50 kt motions and this ramps up to 60 to 90 motions (using bunkers motions) by the end of the event.
Given the uncertainty about if isolated cells can form in front of the line the onset time is in question. At this point, the cold front moves through the area by around 9z.

Cold air is able to come in on the back side of this vigorous low pressure system to the tune of -15 to -20C at 850 mb. Wind chills fall to the single digits Monday night and early Tuesday.
There could be some light snow associated with the upper low or on the backside of the front if the cold air arrives quickly enough, but it's more the lake effect snow aspect that will likely bring accumulating snow to the area. With the lake temperature being around 40F or so, this should allow 20 to 25 degree delta T values starting around 12z Monday and continuing through 00z Tuesday evening. Inversion heights may only be around 3 kft high Monday morning, but with the arrival of the cold air, will rise to between 6 to 8 kft by around midday Monday, which indicates high end snowfall. These inversion heights begin to come back down midday Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon. The initial environment has the cloud layer rising into the DGZ which is good for stronger SLRs. However, we begin to lose low level moisture Monday afternoon and we get very cold Monday night so that will make SLRs weaker for snow. Still some time for changes in the major pieces here, but the ECMWF, GFS, and NBM all indicate that at least advisory snowfall is possible during this period. For our grid population period through 00z Mon evening, I have 2 to 5 inches of snow, highest closer to the lake. Both Monday and Tuesday appear to have gusty winds as well.

Warm advection is quick to return Tuesday night and there could be some combination of rain and snow with this. Often times this kind of set up leads to an onset snow to rain transition. Temperatures continue to trend warmer and allow more 50 degree highs to return by the end of the week. Models also try to bring another trough in by the of the work week, but they vary on how deep or transient the trough is meaning the system could also pass by to our north.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Winds continue to relax as low pressure exits the region.
Subsidence/high pressure and dry low levels will ensure VFR/tranquil aviation weather this period. Midlevel clouds increase today as a warm front develops ahead of the next system. A stray sprinkle is possible at KSBN later today but no impact anticipated and chances are very low anyway.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046.