Glencoe, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glencoe, IL

April 16, 2024 4:20 PM CDT (21:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM
Moonrise 12:24 PM   Moonset 3:13 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 246 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .

Tonight - Southeast winds to 30 kt with a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Wednesday - South winds 20 to 25 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt with a few gale force gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Wednesday night - West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 ft.

LMZ700
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glencoe, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 161955 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm threat late this afternoon and evening, greatest threat area west of I-39.

- Windy this afternoon, and again Wednesday with peak gusts 40+ mph.

- Next round of rain/showers on Thursday-Thursday evening.

- Much cooler over the weekend with frost/freeze concerns, particularly on Saturday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Through Wednesday:

This afternoon, we find the surface low pressure centered over eastern NE and its warm front extending eastward across the heart of the CWA A long line of showers and thunderstorms extends from east-central IA down through eastern MO and is just beginning to move across the Mississippi into portions of western IL. This line will be the first feature to watch for severe weather this evening. A second are of showers and storms is located further the west from central IA through north- central MO.

Precip with the first band will make it into our far west near the I-39 corridor around mid-afternoon. The activity along the first band is expected to gradually dampen on its way to our CWA this afternoon as it outruns the better instability. In fact, it looks like this line may already be outrunning the instability quicker than guidance suggests. Regardless, severe hail is the primary concern with the first band of convection early on. If storms go surface-based along this line though, if not sooner, the scope broadens to an all-hazards potential including a noteworthy concern for a few to several tornadoes.
The tornado threat stems from an impressive low level shear profile with as much as 40 kt of veering 0-1 km shear expected this evening resulting in upwards of 300+ m2s-2 of 0-1 km SRH.

That aforementioned secondary band presents a second opportunity for severe storms tonight for parts of the CWA This second push looks to move across the area between mid-evening through the early overnight hours. This second round will have more instability aloft to work with, as much as about 1,500 J/kg. This will keep the severe potential alive along this line during the evening, though the tornado potential may be lower with the lesser low level instability (e.g. increasing static stability) and slightly veered surface winds behind the first line.

While most of the overnight should be quiet, one last chance for severe storms exists early tomorrow morning. The storm's cold front will be working across the area through the morning and a line of storms may attempt to go up ahead of the boundary.
There's still plenty of uncertainty on when precip will get going ahead of the front and if it will even wait until later in the morning when it's east of our area. However, the signal for precip to develop over the CWA has been on a big upward trend over the past day. If storm's do fire up, a brief tornado or two will again be possible with the low level shear still cause for concern, even if instability has come down quite a bit. We could see storms develop as early as the predawn hours east of I-39. Chances build with eastward extent with the seemingly best potential for storms tomorrow morning being over northwest Indiana.

Doom

Wednesday Night through Tuesday:

Quiet, precipitation free conditions will be short-lived as our next rain producing system arrives Thursday morning. An unseasonably deep/cold upper low over south central Canada will tighten the baroclinic zone/thermal gradient across the region.
Modest large scale forcing but fairly robust progged low-mid level frontogenetical circulation will likely bring an area of rain/showers shifting eastward across the area through the afternoon, evening, and early overnight period. Chance for any embedded thunderstorms appears minimal and confined to south of the Kankakee River. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s to 60s inland, and cooler near the lake.

Initial surge of dry and cold advection on Friday will result in a partly cloudy, breezy and dry, seasonably cool day with highs in the mid to upper 50s. There has been appreciable run to run variance regarding the magnitude of the colder air mass aloft arriving this weekend. In the most recent model cycle (00z 4/16), the pendulum swung back to colder, particularly in the foreign (ECMWF and CMC) suites, which indicate 850 mb temps plunging to near -10C Saturday morning.

If the colder solutions pan out, breezy CAA driven lows may flirt with the freezing mark across parts of interior northern Illinois Saturday morning, with mid 30s to around 40F elsewhere.
Saturday's highs are currently forecast to reach the lower to mid 50s, but the colder side of the spectrum points toward downside potential being 40s for many locales. High pressure building overhead amidst forecast sub-freezing dew points Saturday night looks synoptically favorable for elevated frost/freeze concerns outside of Chicago if skies clear out enough. Following Sunday's chilly start, afternoon temps should recover some vs. Saturday but still likely below normal. Near normal temps (lower to perhaps mid 60s highs) will then return to start next work week, with the next precip. chances probably holding off until just beyond the current day 7 (Monday).

Castro

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period:

- Showers and thunderstorms expected at area terminals this evening, some of which may become severe

- Gusty southeasterly winds expected through most of the TAF period

- MVFR cigs expected overnight

- Another round of storms possible Wednesday morning, but confidence remains lower in development and may focus east of the terminals

Thunderstorms have already developed over Missouri and Iowa ahead of the next low pressure system moving north and east impacting the airspace west of terminals. As the low moves east through the afternoon, the threat of storms to move over terminals increases. Winds ahead of the storms will be out of the southeast with gusts around 30 knots. Thunderstorms could impact area terminals as early as 22Z, but latest guidance as the strongest band of storms moving in around and after 00Z.
These storms will have strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. There is also the potential for these storms to become severe with the development of one inch hail and/or a brief tornado near the terminals; though the potential for tornadoes is better to west (closer to KRFD). While models have trended earlier with initial arrival, confidence for the strongest cells maintained the TEMPO from 00Z-04Z.

There is the potential for a dry slot to develop overnight giving a brief respite from rain, but most guidance was keeping some scattered activity through 15Z tomorrow, so kept -SHRA through Wednesday morning. However, as the center of the low moves into Wisconsin, there is a better chance for MVFR cigs to remain through the overnight period. Then as daybreak approaches, there will be enough instability present for the potential for another round of thunderstorms to develop around area terminals Wednesday morning, and only adjustments to timing were made to the previously introduced PROB30 group.

Showers will eventually taper off and move east on Wednesday morning as winds slowly rotate to the southwest. Gusts are expected to remain strong up to 30 knots Wednesday morning.
Lower confidence on the exact timing, but VFR cigs are expected to return Wednesday morning. Winds gusts will slowly diminish by late afternoon and become more westerly.

DK

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 16 mi80 min ENE 9.9
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 24 mi30 min ESE 22G25 60°F 54°F
OKSI2 24 mi140 min E 8.9G13 62°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 27 mi80 min E 9.9G12 50°F 29.83
CNII2 28 mi20 min ESE 4.1G7 59°F 50°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 37 mi50 min SE 16G23 76°F 29.7559°F
45214 40 mi75 min 42°F2 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 48 mi40 min SE 8.9G17 79°F 29.80


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL 20 sm29 minE 17G2410 smClear63°F43°F48%29.77
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 21 sm28 minESE 09G1810 smA Few Clouds73°F54°F50%29.76
Link to 5 minute data for KUGN


Wind History from UGN
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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Chicago, IL,



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