Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parchment, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Heat wave begins Monday, continues through at least Thursday

Heat and humidity begin building in Monday with hot and humid conditions continuing into the end of the week. Hottest days continue to be Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday when highs will be in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values will be well into the 100s.

Monday may not be a slam dunk criteria Heat Warning day for all of the area as lingering clouds and slow building heat may limit temperatures especially the further north you go. In spite of that and maybe being a few degrees into Advisory vs Warning guidance numbers here or there...the significant impacts of a prolonged heat and humidity stretch (4 days or more) warrant the issuance of an Extreme Heat Watch for Monday through Thursday that is likely to become an Extreme Heat Warning sometime within the next 24 hours.

Anything that can be done to prepare for the heat and humidity should be completed by today as the heat begins Monday. This would include modifying scope and duration of planned outdoor activities this week and taking extra precautions for animals and vulnerable populations among other things.

While some relief from the extreme heat may occur after Thursday...hot and humid conditions are expected to persist through at least the 4th of July holiday weekend and possible much of the week after.

- Chances for showers and storms

There may be some storms that work into northern lower Michigan late today into early Monday. Non-zero chance for severe hail or strong wings in a storm or two...but overall chance for severe weather appears to be very low with elevated instability.

With this much heat and humidity in place it is not uncommon for us to see some afternoon/evening isolated storms or more organized activity as shortwaves move through the Great Lakes region. Best chance for showers/storms at this point still looks to be the middle to the end of the week though models continue to show limited support for showers/storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Satellite shows diurnal Cu development between 3-4kft which will last through the evening. Then we see cigs lower to around 5kft through the night as a system approaches from the west. The main potential impact, and source of uncertainty, is the potential for a thunderstorm complex to clip GRR/MKG late tonight or Monday morning. Short range model guidance is not in strong agreement on where or when exactly storms will track so have kept the PROB30s inherited from the previous forecaster. Outside of winds in thunderstorms, look for southeast winds to 10 knots today except for a westerly lake breeze at MKG. South to southeast winds are expected again Monday with gusts to 20 knots at MKG.

MARINE
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Sunday will feature light easterly to southeasterly winds. Monday sees the return of the risk for hazardous waves that probably will continue through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are looking more likely for both Monday and Tuesday. Those looking to seek relief from the heat Monday and Tuesday should be aware that hazardous waves and currents are likely to be encountered in Lake Michigan.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.