Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Creek, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures through the weekend.

Upper level trough and associated closed low over the central Great Lakes will move northeast across the region through Saturday night.
A surface low over southern Ontario will continue to progress east sending a cold front across the area through this afternoon. A few showers will continue across the region as the front moves through.
Once the front moves through, a cool moist air mass will wrap around to support lake enhanced showers downwind of the lakes tonight and Saturday.

Another upper level trough will drop southeast across the upper and central Great Lakes Sunday supporting a surface low moving through northern Ontario and Quebec, where a pair of fronts approach the region Sunday and Sunday night. Ahead of the fronts, lake enhanced showers will persist east of both lakes during the day on Sunday before more widespread precipitation arrives Sunday night.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Aloft, cyclonic SW'erly flow backs to NE'erly to N'erly over Western and Central NY as a low wobbles ESE'ward from southern Lake Huron to near northeastern PA through 00Z/Sun. Simultaneously and at the surface, troughing lingers over our region as a weakening low wobbles SE'ward from southern Lake Huron to near KERI before dissipating by 15Z/Sat, while a primary low wobbles NE'ward from near Long Island to the Gulf of Maine. In response, our regional surface winds should remain around 5 to 15 knots and veer gradually from SW'erly to W'erly to NW'erly to N'erly through 00Z/Sun.

Widespread low/mid-level clouds are expected through the TAF period and low cloud bases are expected to primarily be in the MVFR range to 5kft AGL. However, occasional IFR ceilings are expected, especially over North-Central NY, including KART, and over the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes Region and Western Southern Tier, including KJHW. The complex low pressure system will continue to generate isolated to scattered rain showers across our region through the TAF period. Lake-effect rain showers will persist over/downwind of Lake Erie and will settle S'ward gradually across Western NY through the TAF period as mean low-level flow veers from SW'erly to W'erly to NW'erly.
As for Lake America, lake-effect rain showers should develop over and generally east of the lake between ~12Z/Sat and ~15Z/Sat and then settle gradually S'ward to areas south and southeast of the lake through 00Z/Sun as mean low-level flow veers from W'erly to NNW'erly. VFR visibility is expected outside precip, while VFR to occasional MVFR visibility is expected in precip.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected. Rain may mix with wet snow in interior portions of the Western Southern Tier early Sunday morning.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly dry weather and VFR expected, but isolated and periodic rain showers with non-VFR are possible.
Rain may mix with wet snow in the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks early Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Winds will become westerly at 15 knots or less behind a cold frontal passage this afternoon. Winds will increase Saturday and remain elevated through the weekend, supporting an extended period of small craft conditions.

There will also be a risk of waterspouts through through the weekend with cold air aloft and the potential for lake effect showers.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.