Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trumansburg, NY

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trumansburg, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291851 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 251 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week thanks to high pressure over the region. Warmest temperatures of the year are expected Friday. A moisture-starved front will pass through by the end of the week, which may bring a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Warm and mostly clear this afternoon across the region. Some fair weather cumulus clouds have developed across the Catskills and into the eastern Finger Lakes. These clouds should remain into evening then quickly dissipate as heating subsides.
Temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid 80s across the area, but RH being in the 30s will make if feel pretty nice outside.

Tonight, a high pressure center developing over Nova Scotia will bring a wind shift and advect in Canadian air from the east.
This backdoor cool front will drop temps the greatest east of I-81 tonight, falling into the mid to upper 40s. West of I-81, low to mid 50s are expected. This Canadian airmass will continue to influence the weather on Tuesday, allowing for cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Syracuse will be the hot spot as SSE winds downslope into the Mohawk Valley, causing extra warming that the models didn't pick up on. Temps here were bumped a couple degrees above guidance.

This Canadian airmass will also bring some smokey conditions to the region as smoke from wildfires in Nova Scotia will be pushed into the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening. HRRR near-surface smoke guidance backs this up with a nice plume of smoke moving in from the east. This smoke advection is expected to be short lived as winds over Nova Scotia and the waters off New England become southerly on Tuesday afternoon, effectively cutting off the smoke advection by Tuesday evening. Hazy and patchy smokey conditions should stick around until it dissipates sometime Wednesday morning. Temps Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be similar to Monday night, with mid to upper 40s east of I-81 and low to mid 50s west of I-81.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will still be in place across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Persistence forecast methods used here going on the warmer side of model guidance and cooler end of model guidance with lows given the dry pattern. Highs both days should get well into the 80's with a few spots around 90 Thursday, no added heat index due to low relative humidity. Lows will have quite the drop off into the 50's both Wednesday and Thursday nights.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A weak cold frontal boundary is still projected to move into the region late Friday then become a backdoor front on Saturday moving from east to west across the region. Moisture looks very limited but enough lift coupled with weak instability may be enough for a few pop up afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks like the hottest day with more spots reaching 90, no added heat index given low relative humidity. The cold front drops temperatures several degrees Saturday. More seasonable after the frontal passage in terms of temperatures with lows in the 40's and 50's with highs from the upper 70's to mid 80's. Some ensemble members are showing a second frontal passage early next week, so that will be another opportunity for a few pop up showers and thunderstorms.

The longest stretch of no precipitation at our climate sites are all over 2 weeks, still a long ways to go to consider that.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure over the region brings VFR conditions to all terminals through the forecast period.

A wind shift to SSE later this evening will bring some periodic gusts up to 14kts tonight with sustained winds between 4-8kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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