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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Wed Dec 6 2023
Rest of today..West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing south late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 061640 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1040 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1035 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023)

GOES RGBs indicate the low-level stratocumulus have been slow to clear out (from west to east), and the broken cirrus clouds overspreading the CWA have plenty of coverage upstream and are here to stay (as expected). This should keep the temperature forecast in check. Southwest winds are still expected to pick up (25-30 mph gusts possible) for a brief period this evening into tonight. Though faster winds (over 40mph) are present on forecast soundings at the top of the residual layer at night, the nocturnal layer should be stable enough to prevent this from mixing down.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
(Issued 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023)

Today and Tonight:

Ample cloud cover this morning as stratus lingers and cirrus filters in from the north. The blanket of clouds has helped keep temperatures in check, and readings should remain in the low/mid 30s through daybreak. If clearing can get into far southwestern WI, temperatures dropping into the upper 20s is plausible.

Clearing will be slow to occur today. Cyclonic flow will gradually end and dry air advection from the west should slowly erode the stratus deck from west to east. While a few flurries will be possible, this should be the exception rather than the rule. Temperatures will once again struggle to warm much given northwest winds, with highs in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees expected.

Northwest winds shift to the southwest tonight and warm air advection will gradually take hold. While clearing will continue, winds should be strong enough to maintain mixing and help keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Gagan

LONG TERM
(Issued 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023)

Thursday through Tuesday:

A warming trend begins Thursday as southwest winds gradually increase. Under a mainly clear sky, temperatures should warm well into the 40s with a few 50s not out of the question. The pick day of the week will be Friday as highs warm into the 50s area wide. Not quite record territory, but certainly a day to take advantage of any outdoor activities.

The 00z model/ensemble suite did not do much to clear up uncertainty with the weekend forecast, featuring a lot less northern/southern energy phasing. As a result, the signal for a more wintry event has waned. The current consensus features light rain beginning early Saturday with temperatures well into the 30s to around 40 degrees, falling late in the day as winds shift to the northwest. There is still some support for a bit of light snow heading into Saturday night, though accumulations and impacts appear limited. It is recommended to keep an eye on the weekend forecast as phasing is historically not handled well and abrupt changes are possible.

Temperatures will return to near average for the latter half of the weekend into early next week as high pressure enters from the northwest.

Gagan

AVIATION
(Issued 1035 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023)

MVFR ceilings continue to linger over KSBM, KUES, KMKE, and KENW this morning, while only high level clouds overspread areas further west. A gradual west to east clearing / scattering of the MVFR ceiling is expected (but not guaranteed), leaving most airports in VFR by the mid afternoon today. TAF amendments will focus on timing this.

Southwest winds accelerate this evening into tonight, with gusts of 20 to 28 kts in the forecast. 2000 ft AGL winds from 00z to 06z this evening will be west at 35 to 45 kts. The current expectation is for the southwest surface winds to continue to be gusty during this timeframe. However, if the surface gusts dwindle after nightfall, there will be a threat for up to 35 kts of low level wind shear in this timeframe.

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023)

North to northwest gusts up to 20 knots continue to be observed across the southern half of Lake Michigan early this morning.
These gusts will continue through the day, increasing to up to 30 knots tonight as winds shift to the southwest. These southwest winds will persist through the rest of the week as strong low pressure of 29.2 inches travels east across the northern Great Lakes region. There remains a potential for a few gales tonight.

Gagan

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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