Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday November 21, 2019 1:51 PM CST (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:37AMMoonset 3:03PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Am Cst Thu Nov 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..South wind 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then veering west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of rain late in the morning, then slight chance of rain early in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201911212300;;607990 FZUS53 KMKX 211505 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-212300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 211909 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI 109 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

UPDATE.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS). MVFR ceilings will continue over the area through the evening hours. Clearing skies are expected late tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Good flying weather is forecast for Friday with clear skies and light winds.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 933 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019)

UPDATE .

Showers continue to wind down southwest to northeast this morning. A little rain will linger across mainly the northwest half of forecast area into early afternoon as the shortwave moves through. Tweaked temperatures for the afternoon, but otherwise the forecast looks on track for the remainder of the day.

MARINE .

Low pressure will move from west-central Wisconsin to north of Lake Huron today, then to the northeast of there tonight. This low will bring strong south winds that will reach gale force into this afternoon over open waters.

The strong south to southwest winds may diminish for a time later this afternoon, before veering northwest and ramp back up quickly to gale force levels over the open waters by early this evening. The strong northwest winds should linger into the overnight hours, before weakening. High waves are expected to develop today over Lake Michigan, shifting to the eastern side of the lake tonight.

Winds and waves will gradually diminish Friday, as high pressure moves southward across the northern and central Plains. The light winds should linger into Saturday. Light to moderate west to southwest winds are then expected into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 536 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019)

UPDATE .

Back edge of main area of rain is moving east through the area, and will shift to the east, along with the low level jet feeding moisture into the area. There will be more scattered shower activity moving into the area this morning, with some breaks as well, as differential CVA from an approaching 500 mb shortwave trough moves into the area. The rain may linger in far northern parts of the area, where it will pivot.

Gusty south winds should continue to develop as well, especially after the main area of rain moves out of the area. Made some adjustments to PoPs this morning to account for the more scattered showers.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Back edge of main area of rain is moving east through the area, and will shift to the east over the next hour or two. More scattered shower activity should move into the area this morning, with some breaks. Any showers should end by early afternoon.

Gusty south winds are expected to continue to develop this morning, especially after the main area of rain moves out of the area. Winds will veer northwest later this morning into the afternoon, after the cold front and low move through the region.

Low level wind shear conditions are expected to continue this morning into early this afternoon, with 2000 foot level winds of 45 to 50 knots out of the southwest, becoming northwest this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds should linger into tonight, diminishing late.

Ceilings will continue to lower from VFR/MVFR to IFR/LIFR category early this morning, lingering into early afternoon before rising to MVFR. These ceilings should then linger into early evening, before moving out by later tonight.

May see visibility values down to 1 to 2 miles at times with the heavier rain over the next hour or two, with values then improving to 5 miles or greater into early afternoon. VFR category is then expected later today into tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 256 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019)

DISCUSSION .

Today And Tonight . Forecast Confidence Is High.

A solid area of rain will continue to move through the area into this morning, as the strong southwesterly low level jet continues to feed ample moisture into the area. Warm air advection will also help support the rain into this morning.

Gusty south winds should also develop during this period. Will continue the Lakeshore Flood Advisory for Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties for this morning and early this afternoon, with gusty south winds and wave action that may lead to minor flooding of low areas near the shore.

Rain associated with the main feed of moisture with the low level jet will move to the east during the morning. The surface low is expected to move from north central Iowa into east central Wisconsin this morning. The low will bring the cold front through the area later this morning into middle afternoon. There should be some differential CVA with the passing 500 mb shortwave trough this morning into early this afternoon.

Mesoscale models are suggesting that more scattered activity should push through the area by middle morning into early afternoon, before ending with strong cold air advection pushing into the area. Continued with high PoPs into this morning, gradually lowering through the morning and early afternoon west to east before ending.

Total rainfall amounts are generally around or somewhat above the 75th percentile per model certainty, with most models fairly tightly clustered between 0.60 and 0.75 inches. The official forecast is generally 0.75 to 0.90 inches in most of the area, with lower amounts in the far southeast. This rainfall may lead to some river stages rising over the next few days, with a few approaching flood stage.

Gusty south winds will veer northwest and remain gusty, after the cold frontal passage later this morning into the afternoon. Mild temperatures into this morning are expected ahead of the low and cold front, before dropping quickly after the frontal passage and into tonight. Lows should bottom out in the middle 20s later tonight.

Friday . Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will bring a quiet day with increasing sunshine. Temps will be running in the 30s . below normal for the time of year.

Saturday through Monday . Forecast confidence is medium.

There will be increased troughing through the region, but the bulk of the forcing/impact will be elsewhere. We'll probably see more clouds, but for now it looks dry with moderating temps each day.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Forecast confidence is low.

The GFS and the ECMWF continue to handle mid level energy kicking out of the SW CONUS and lifting into the Great Lakes Tue-Tue night very differently. The GFS maintains a more energetic, negatively tilted mid level short wave over the GL, while the EC is less amplified as it moves through. How this is reflected at the surface is significant. The GFS has been the most consistent from run to run, showing rapid surface cyclogenesis with the low over KS/MO early Tuesday evolving into a deep cyclone over northern Lower MI by late Tuesday night. The ECMWF, on the other hand, has a very weak surface low tracking from Arkansas to Pennsylvania and high pressure over southern Wisconsin during that same time.

The ensemble mean from the GFS looks similar to the operational run, which is significant, especially with the consistency from run to run. The ECMWF continues to have many ensemble members showing a decent system moving through the Great Lakes . similar to the GFS. So, won't sway much from the idea that we'll see a decent low pressure system move through Tuesday into Tuesday night, but drying out for Wednesday. Temps overall look on the warmer side, so mostly rain for southern WI, or a mix of rain and snow.

This is still a long way off and given the model variability, much can change between now and then. So, remain flexible on expectations . timing, intensity and precip type.

Thanksgiving Day . Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like high pressure will be over the area, providing dry conditions. It also looks cool with highs in the 30s.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES) .

Rain is expected to continue moving through the area into this morning, with the activity becoming more scattered from middle morning into early afternoon before ending.

Gusty south winds are expected to develop into this morning, with winds veering northwest later this morning into the afternoon, after the cold front and low move through the region. Low level wind shear conditions are expected this morning into early this afternoon, with 2000 foot level winds of 45 to 50 knots out of the southwest, becoming northwest this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds should linger into tonight, diminishing late.

Ceilings will lower from VFR/MVFR to IFR/LIFR category into this morning, lingering into early afternoon before rising to MVFR. These ceilings should then linger into early evening, before moving out by later tonight.

May see visibility values down to 1 to 2 miles at times with the heavier rain into this morning, with values improving to 5 miles or greater from middle morning into early afternoon. VFR category is then expected later today into tonight.

MARINE .

Low pressure is expected to move northeast from north central Iowa to north of Lake Huron today, then further to the northeast tonight. This will bring a period of strong south to southwest winds to Lake Michigan this morning and early this afternoon, before veering northwest later this afternoon and lingering tonight.

South to southwest gales to 40 knots are expected over Lake Michigan this morning, before weakening somewhat this afternoon, before northwest gales to around 35 knots occur this evening. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the open waters today into tonight. High waves are expected today over the lake, shifting to the eastern parts of the lake tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan through tonight, for frequent gusts to 30 knots. A few gales to 35 knots may occur.

Lighter winds and waves are expected for Friday into Saturday, with high pressure to the southwest of the region. Southwest to west winds may increase somewhat for Sunday into Monday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ052-060.

LM . Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for LMZ080-261-362-364-366- 563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LMZ643>646.



Update . 99 Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . 99 Friday THROUGH Wednesday . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi52 min WSW 19 G 27 55°F 1002 hPa (-2.4)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 29 mi122 min SSW 12 G 15 52°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi52 min S 23 G 27
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi52 min SW 30 G 40 55°F 53°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi2 hrsSW 14 G 243.00 miFog/Mist54°F52°F93%1001.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi1.9 hrsSW 18 G 323.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy53°F48°F86%1002 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi2 hrsSW 14 G 288.00 miOvercast53°F48°F86%1001.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi1.9 hrsSW 18 G 227.00 miOvercast and Breezy53°F50°F92%1001 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmNW4NW4NW4CalmNW3CalmW3SW3W4CalmCalmW3SW3CalmW3CalmCalmS3SW53SW9SW6SW7
2 days agoW4NW8NW6CalmW3W4W3SW3CalmW5SW6SW3SW4SW3W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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