Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenosha, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:52PM Saturday September 21, 2019 6:11 AM CDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:20PMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Am Cdt Sat Sep 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am cdt this morning through Sunday afternoon...
Today..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Chance of showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Rain showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201909211600;;119812 FZUS53 KMKX 211006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-211600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenosha, WI
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location: 42.58, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 210916
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
416 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high...

a broad upper level trough initially to the west will track
northeast with the surface low. This will allow some shortwave
energy to impact the region starting this morning through the mid
afternoon hours. With plenty of theta-e advection is the low
levels it is expected that showers and a few weak storms would be
likely through this period. Though showers are likely the will
also likely be broad and unfocused given the fairly weak forcing
overall. Some storms are possible given upwards of 1000 j kg of
mucape but with little to no organization expected storms will
remain mostly weak.

We will likely see a break into the late afternoon and early
evening as we will lose most of the upper level shortwave energy
though a few showers may remain. This will preface the
precipitation with the cold front. This will be well forced
between the front, a broad area of upper level shortwave energy,
plenty of theta-e advection, and some LLJ and ULJ influence.

Although the forcing is quite strong, any storms are not expected
to be strong with limited CAPE of 500-1000 j kg. So this system
will likely organize itself into a large swath of rain showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms. These showers storms are still
of concern because there will likely be some degree of training
and with pwats from 1.75-2.00 inches with highest values in the
southeast part of the cwa. Another concern will be the potential
for more efficient rain rates due to some tropical impacts. This
will yield potential for some flash flooding overnight into early
Sunday morning, especially for far southeastern wisconsin.

There remains uncertainty with flash flood potential with respect
to how progressive the front will be, but with previous rainfall
and potentially another 2-4 inches we have issued a flash flood
watch for the southern two tiers of the cwa.

Long term
Sunday through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is medium to
high.

Abnormally high moisture content advecting into the area will
result in heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding Sunday
and Sunday night.

High pressure sitting over the southeastern us and approaching
trough currently over the intermountain west will allow for
continued south to southwesterly flow into the upper midwest on
Sunday. It looks like the stronger S SW winds tap into some of the
deeper tropical moisture associated with hurricane lorena that is
moving into the gulf of california. As we go through the day on
Sunday this almost tropical moisture feed will result in pwats of
upwards of 2 inches, which is well above climo for this time of
year. Multiple rounds of rainfall are possible on Sunday and this
could lead to flooding. This will be especially true along the
il wi border, where recent heavy rains have occurred. A flash
flood watch is in effect through Sunday evening. By Monday morning
the heavy rainfall axis will be east of the area and a cold front
should be pushing across southern wi.

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The upper level trough shifts east into michigan Monday morning
and we will be in for a drier north to northwesterly flow. Not
expecting much of a change in high temps as clearing skies later
in the day should allow for values in the lower 70s. The biggest
change will be with lows where both Monday and Tuesday morning
lows fall into the 50s.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Winds will have shifted back to south by Wednesday morning
allowing for some better moisture to return back northward. A
quick moving system tracks through northern mn wi and will result
in another round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Think this system will be a bit more progressive, which
will help to limit rainfall amounts somewhat. But this coming on
the heavier rainfall from this weekend could keep some flooding
going. We stick with the S SW winds into the latter half of next
week and there are additional chances for showers and storms on
Friday. But right now thats too far out to get into any specifics.

Aviation(09z tafs)
Fog in the nearshore areas looks to be thinning though some patchy
fog may linger into the morning though it should not impact
visibilities significantly. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to push into the region from the west this morning and continue
into the afternoon. This will be mostly scattered but MVFR cigs
and vsbys are likely with CIGS possibly falling to ifr at times.

South to southwest winds will also be on the increase, with gusts
into the 20-25 knot range at times.

There will likely somewhat of a break in activity Saturday late
afternoon and early evening, with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms developing later Saturday evening and overnight.

Marine
Some fog will persist over the lake into the morning hours
potentially lasting through morning across the northern half of
the lake. In addition, southerly winds will pick up as we move
into the late morning hours, which will be strong enough to reach
small craft advisory thresholds. These winds will continue through
the day and the overnight hours into Sunday morning before
starting to weaken. Otherwise it will be a very wet period
starting this morning through Sunday morning.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Flash flood watch from this evening through late Sunday night
for wiz062>072.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 7 am cdt this morning for lmz643>645-
669-671-673-870.

Dense fog advisory until noon cdt today for lmz261-362-364-366-
563-565-567-868.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm cdt Sunday
for lmz643>646.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Sunday through Friday... Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 3 mi71 min S 8 G 8.9 67°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.0)
45186 15 mi31 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 66°F1 ft
45174 33 mi31 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 66°F1 ft1016.8 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi31 min S 9.7 G 14 70°F 69°F1019.3 hPa68°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 49 mi41 min S 13 G 15 74°F 71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI4 mi18 minSSW 57.00 miFair71°F69°F94%1018.3 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL11 mi16 minSSW 87.00 miFair71°F66°F87%1017.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI13 mi18 minSSW 510.00 miFair71°F66°F84%1018.6 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi16 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist39°F36°F91%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmNW3CalmE5E6E8SE6SE5SE7SE5SE3SE5SE5SE4SE4S3SE3CalmS5SW5S5
1 day agoCalmS3S6S64NW83CalmCalmSW6CalmSE8SE5SE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago3S6S6S6S5SE4S8SE8SE10SE11SE12SE12SE9SE8S4CalmSE4S3CalmS5S3S3S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.