Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moravia, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold airmass will continue to be in place through Tuesday morning, with well below normal temperatures with well below average temperatures and scattered snow showers today.

2) A gradual warm up is expected from mid week into next weekend along with mainly dry weather. The pattern may become more unsettled next weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very cold airmass for late-April standards will be in place today with 850mb temperatures around -11C and 925mb temperatures hovering around -5C. A shortwave will be dropping southward into the area, with steep low level lapse rates, instability (MUCAPE 100 J/kg) and lingering moisture in the surface to 750mb (0-2km) layer of the atmosphere. This will set the stage for scattered snow showers to re-develop across the area today, especially in Central NY and the Twin Tiers. That being said, with the strong late April sun angle and surface temperatures likely at least a few degrees above freezing, snow will have a hard time accumulating on surfaces, especially paved ones. If there were to be any snow accumulations, it would be mainly in the morning before peak solar heating, and mainly at the higher elevations.

Otherwise, between these scattered snow showers, partly sunny skies are expected today. Highs will only be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, making it feel more like early March or early December, rather than 11 days away from May.

Dry air, clear skies, and a surface high building in will result in a very cold night tonight/early Tuesday morning. Widespread lows in the 20s are expected tonight, with some upper teens possible in the usual colder spots (Oneida County to the Catskills). As the high pressure system moves east of the area on Tuesday, a southerly return flow will develop, which will allow temperatures to rebound (highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Mainly dry weather is expected for most of the remainder of the week, aside from a frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, which may bring scattered rain showers (possibly mixed with snow showers in the Catskills). Temperatures will progressively get a bit warmer each day starting Tuesday, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday, mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday, and upper 50s to upper 60s for Thursday and Friday.

There are indications that we could be going back into a wetter pattern next weekend as ensemble 500 mb height anomaly means show a trough trying to set up in the western US and SW flow developing over the east.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Scattered snow showers are moving through CNY tonight. These showers have a history of producing IFR visby so confidence is high that these conditions will occur at ITH/ELM/BGM over the next few hours. Confidence is low that these showers will reach AVP, so they have been left out of the TAF. Some freezing fog has developed over the easter Southern Tier and Catskills, some of which made it up to BGM earlier tonight, dropping visbys down to 1/2sm. Current thinking is that this fog should dissipate as the snow showers move through and mix out the valleys.

Another round of scattered rain and snow showers are expected to move through the area this afternoon as a shortwave trough dives into the area from the north. Tempos for MVFR snow showers have been included for ITH/BGM/ELM, with a rain/snow mix across SYR and RME. AVP should miss out on most of these showers, although a brief rain shower cannot be ruled out.

Outlook:

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR conditons expected.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...Front approaches the region with restrictions possible.

Wednesday afternoon and Thursday...VFR conditions possible inbetween systems.

Friday...Chance for a few showers, mainly VFR. Isolated restrictions possible at times.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.