Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Websters Crossing, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Stationary boundary remain just off to our southeast early this morning as a bubble of high pressure resides over the region.
Satellite imagery showing an expanding area of stratus and fog (some dense) across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The stratus and fog will remain in place through mid morning, before mid and high level clouds increase as the boundary to our south starts to lift northward. For the most part, today looks dry with the bubble of high pressure in place, but as the boundary moves closer we could see some isolated convection develop this afternoon as instability increases. Best chances across the Southern Tier and along any lake breeze circulations.

Additional low chances for showers exist tonight as the boundary moves closer and a weak upper wave passes close to the region. May be enough elevated instability to support a non-zero chance for thunderstorms with any showers.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A deep southerly flow will persist along the east coast late in the week. A mid-level trough across northern Ontario Thursday will move towards northern New England before lifting back north into Quebec Friday. A broad area of lower pressure will be across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley. Showers are possible in the morning, however better coverage is expected Thursday afternoon.
Daytime heating with modest deep layer moisture will allow for showers and a few thunderstorms through the early evening. A belt of 25-30kt westerly flow will round the trough across the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from the Genesee Valley and east. Showers and any storms will weaken and or move east of the forecast area Thursday night. Weak low-level flow flow may result in fog formation, especially if clouds clear out early.

There will be little change in MSLP on Friday with weak winds across the forecast area. Mid-level ridging will build into the region Friday. There remains modest moisture especially for areas to the south, so while most of the forecast area will be dry, can't rule out widely scattered showers during peak heating, mainly near the Pennsylvania State Line. Mostly dry weather will persist through Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A low amplitude shortwave ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday. Increasing temperatures and moisture may result in very warm and humid conditions across the region. Daytime highs could reach the upper 80s to low 90s. The ridge will move east Sunday while an approaching trough flattens across the central Great Lakes region. An area of low pressure and associated cold front may support showers and thunderstorms across the region Sunday. Zonal flow and surface high pressure will start the work week with low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Above normal temperatures are anticipated this weekend into next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Plenty of low level moisture will remain in place this morning with low stratus and fog bringing IFR conditions. Highest confidence in low conditions at KART and KJHW.

Once the stratus and fog mixes out, VFR weather expected today.
Increase in higher level clouds through the day with generally light winds. Isolated risk for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring inland of Lake Erie (KJHW) will become more in numbers late this afternoon and this evening including KIAG and KBUF as a prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front draws near far WNY.

Outlook...

Tonight into Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible.

MARINE
Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie and Ontario through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through the region tonight into Thursday morning that could lead to gusty winds and choppy conditions.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.