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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 419 Am Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Today..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 67 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 031842 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Outstanding early fall weather will continue through Thursday as an unusually strong and persistent area of high pressure will guarantee fair and very warm conditions. Daytime temperatures will be more typical of those from July by averaging as much as 20 to 25 degrees above normal with the peak of the heat Tuesday and Wednesday. Our next opportunity for rain will not come until Thursday night and Friday when a cold front ushers in a notable change in the overall weather pattern.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Summertime Warmth through at LEAST Wednesday

Ridging both at the surface and aloft will bring dry and very warm weather to the region through Wednesday with little cloud cover both days. High temps ratchet upward today as H85 temps rise to 15c-17c which supports afternoon temps well into the 80s. Leaned on continuity and GFS MOS guidance compared to NAM MOS guidance which has been underdone last two days. Very dry antecedent conditions will also helping in allowing max temps climb to near record levels.
Local cooling near the lakes this afternoon in this more summertime pattern. Nothing too notable about tonight weatherwise as lows may drop as low as the lower 50s well inland and again there could be valley fog Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

Warmth peaks on Wednesday with deep mixing to H8 progged on forecast soundings. Highs will reach the mid 80s to near 90 with warmest temps across the lake plains and in the Genesee Valley. Record highs are possible. See the climate section below for more details. Despite the warmth, dewpoints will stay on the drier side so apparent temps will only reach near 90F. Lake breezes in the afternoon again, but more localized as sfc high center will be more to the east.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A highly amplified pattern will persist across the Lower 48 late in the work week. A strong ridge over Northeast and northern Atlantic will bring one last day of summertime warmth to the eastern Great Lakes region. Maximum temperatures will likely reach the low to mid 80s with breezy southwest winds across the region. Mid to high level clouds will increase Thursday and Thursday night as the advertised pattern shift approaches the region. Conditions will remain dry Thursday with low chances of rain showers entering western NY Thursday night. Little if any rainfall expected through 6AM Friday.

A longwave trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region and Northeast Friday through the weekend. Showers will track from west to east across the region Friday as moisture and low-level convergence increase ahead of a cold front. Initially, these showers will be generally light, however weak instability ahead of the front will increase the risk for a few thunderstorms. Light showers may become moderate east of the Genesee Valley Friday afternoon. Maximum temperatures will range from the low 60s across far western NY to the low to mid 70s southeast of Lake Ontario. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.25 inches near the Lakes to less than a tenth of inch further inland.

The trough sharpens across the Great Lakes and becomes negatively tilted by Saturday. The cold front will likely slow down across the eastern Lake Ontario region and showers will continue in this region Friday night. Additional showers will move into western NY as deep ascent and moisture from the trough moves closer. Deep layer ascent and deepening moisture will merge with the low-level convergence of the front east of Lake Ontario late Friday night into Saturday.
Moderate to heavy showers will be likely across this region. West of the cold front, strong, cold air advection will be ongoing Friday night into Saturday with 850mb temperatures falling to +1C. Lake enhanced rain showers will begin east of Lake Erie late Friday night. The dry ground will welcome the rainfall with amounts ranging from around a half inch across far western NY to 0.5-1.00 east of the Genesee Valley. Rainfall amounts will likely exceed one inch east of Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the entire region Friday and Friday night, however much of the area was in a rainfall deficit so a soaking rain will be beneficial. The area of concern will be east of the Finger Lakes into the North Country where rounds of rainfall may cause nuisance to localized flooding. Much cooler Saturday with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s southeast of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A potent shortwave Friday will rotate around the base of the longwave trough set up over the Great Lakes, resulting in a mid- level closed low to develop and set up over southern Ontario, Canada/the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night. This closed low will then lift northeast into southern Quebec, Canada Sunday through Tuesday, where a few shortwave trough will rotate around it during this time.

This general pattern aloft will support a surface low over Lake Ontario to rotate and broaden northward into southern Quebec, overall plenty of synoptic wrap around moisture will support general showers to spill across the region throughout the weekend and into the start of the new work week. Additionally with the pattern previously described, much colder air will advect in across the region (850 mb temperatures cooling off toward 0 degree Celsius or just below). While showers will already be occuring, the cold air aloft will be plenty cold to support some lake enhancement as well.

Otherwise, as alluded to previously temperatures will continue to dive towards the cooler side and in fact dip below normal values through the weekend and start of the new work week. Additionally, with the drastic cool down winds will remain elevated due to the increasing pressure gradient and cold air advection regime.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions and light winds will be found regionwide through tonight. The exception will be the usual late night fog/stratus across parts of the Srn Tier.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday and Saturday...VFR to MVFR cigs with the likelihood showers.

MARINE
High pressure across the lower Great Lakes will provide mainly gentle breezes and no more than some light chop from time to time through mid week. Looking further out, winds on the lakes will begin to increase as a stronger cold front moves through late this week. The need for Small Craft Advisories will significantly increase towards the weekend.

CLIMATE
A strong...persistent ridge over the eastern half of the country will provide western and north central New York with summer-like warmth for much of this week. Temperatures will be more typical of July rather than early October right through Thursday. In fact...several record temperatures could be reached/exceeded.
Listed below are the record maximum temperatures for the two warmest days...Today and Wednesday.

Today Wednesday *Thursday (*Record High Min)
Buffalo 86 (1898) 87 (1951) 68 (1898)
Rochester 90 (1951) 89 (1926) 67 (1891)
Watertown 83 (1951) 84 (1951) 60 (1973)

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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