Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union Springs, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

345 AM Update...

Cool start to the morning with temperatures near freezing across most of the area. High pressure remains in place today with mostly sunny skies expected. Upper level ridge works into the region this afternoon with winds shifting to the west. This advects warmer air into the region allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 60s. Clear and calm conditions are expected to carry throughout the day and into the evening period. Winds then shift northwest again with clouds beginning to fill back in overnight especially over north central NY, northeast PA will remain clear. Regardless temperatures overnight will range warmer with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. A weak shortwave clips the northern portion of our region with a touch of lake effect showers possible over northern Oneida early Saturday morning. Not a lot of moisture will accompany this short wave, dry conditions should return soon after sunrise.

Behind this feature conditions will remain dry on Saturday, with skies clearing out again. Temperatures will range slightly cooler with persistent northwest flow, highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across central NY, and in the low to mid 60s across northeast PA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

345 AM Update...

An upper trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes region with increasing meridional amplitude as it progresses into the Northeast.
A surface low will gather ahead of the system with warm frontogenesis taking shape over northern PA during Saturday night.
Modest isentropic lift is expected to increase into the late night hours with light rain or drizzle developing by Sunday morning. There is some low level dry air to overcome, but latest guidance and probabilistic QPF are indicating higher chances of measurable precipitation by 12Z Sunday. NBM guidance seems a touch low, probably due to the spatial differences in forcing features versus the actual event occurring. As a result, this seems like a reasonable opportunity to trend up rain chances over guidance, especially along and north of the Twin Tiers into CNY. Precipitation may tend to be more showery across NEPA which is expected to be south of the front.

Unsettled weather will then continue as the surface low deepens and moves into New England by Monday morning with a trailing cold front supported by the upper trough acting as a focus for additional precipitation. Temperatures may become marginal for some wet snow flakes over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and Western Catskills, late Sunday night, but confidence is pretty low due to timing and marginal surface temperatures in the mid 30s north to upper 40s south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The upper trough closes off over eastern Quebec and the Maritimes through at least Tuesday before releasing later in the week.
Anomalously colder air aloft will be continously drawn across the area for a few days of Fall-like chill. Lake effect clouds and rain showers will respond to the persistent northwest flow probably well into Wednesday before ridging takes over on Thursday with improving conditions and temperatures closing back in on normal. Winter forecast parameters do suggest that the cold air may be deep enough to support wet snow flakes at the higher elevations of the Catskills, Leatherstocking Region and the southern Tug Hill from Monday night into Tuesday night.

Temps will be pretty chilly for this time of year. Highs Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s will struggle to get out of the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows for this period will be in the low to mid 30s.



AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Clouds have scatted out over most of the area with VFR conditions expected at most terminals.

Mostly clear and light/variable winds expected overnight, favoring NW at times. Some valley fog is expected, with IFR possible at ELM and at RME in the predawn hours.

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon Friday, with light NW winds continuing. Guidance hints at LLWS tomorrow night at NY sites, but confidence was low to include at this time.

Outlook

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; low-level wind shear possible late Friday and into Friday night.

Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Monday through Tuesday...Showers and associated restrictions at Central NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-022>025- 036-037-044>046-055>057-062.