Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenmore, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Some patchy river valley fog possible tonight across the Southern Tier and Black River Valley
Otherwise
dry weather through Wednesday.

2) Unsettled weather returns Thursday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some patchy river valley fog possible tonight across the Southern Tier and Black River Valley
Otherwise
dry weather through Wednesday.

Limited lingering moisture and daytime heating will aid in some measure of a fair weather CU to be found across the area this afternoon. There will be some lingering marine stratus and fog that will continue to impact the south shore of Lake Ontario from N.
Cayuga to Jefferson county, this should dissipate with time this afternoon.

Otherwise...we should see plenty of sunshine for most areas and dry weather with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tonight...with the loss of daytime heating clear skies will resume.
Some limited fog will be possible but mainly in the river valleys of the Southern Tier and Black River Valley.

Another glorious day is anticipated Wednesday with high pressure over the region. Temps Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns Thursday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The next chance at precipitation will come as a shortwave drops E- ESE through the broader trough across the upper Great Lakes. This will set the stage for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Thursday
That said
the overall evolution of the convection at this point is less than certain.
Guidance shows a leading shortwave just ahead of the stronger shortwave advancing across the upper Great Lakes.
Additionally...there is an ill-defined warm frontal segment advertised over the area Thursday morning, which could keep much of the area enshrouded in cloud cover with some showers across the region
After that
the question will be what measure of instability will be able to build in the afternoon through the eve hours
At the moment
12Z packages show > 1500 J/kg well inland from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. That would suggest we will see some convection in the afternoon which could have the potential to become severe.

With the passage of the front Thursday eve we should see coverage of showers and storms diminish from west to east overnight. Overall drier weather is expected Friday but still cant' rule out a few showers. Plus the front slows it southward progression and then stall out near the Mid-Alantic region. Given its close proximity and uncertainty in its placement have low chance PoPs through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Diurnal cu starting to erode as daytime heating wanes early this evening, eventually leaving behind just patches of thin wispy upper level cirrus passing over the area. VFR conditions will persist through tonight with one exception; there will be the possibility for fog to form in the Southern Tier valleys and Black River Valley later tonight. This could produce localized MVFR/IFR flight conditions. Confidence is low as to whether or not this will have any impacts at KJHW late tonight through an hour or so after sunrise.

Any localized valley fog will quickly dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise, leaving widespread VFR flight conditions through the day Wednesday. Limited VFR diurnal cu will blossom Wednesday afternoon along and inland of any lake breeze circulations, however continued drying in the lower levels should keep the bulk of any low level VFR decks in the FEW-SCT range.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR most of the time, but brief/local restrictions possible with a few showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Some marine stratus and fog (limited visibilities) will be found on the eastern end of Lake Ontario this afternoon which should mix out by this eve
Otherwise
light winds and minimal wave action expected on area lakes through Wednesday.

Winds and waves pick-up a bit Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front which may produce some chop on area lakes but still below SCA levels
Additionally
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms, of which may produce localized higher winds and waves.

Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels Friday and into the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.