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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 505 Pm Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the evening, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming south early in the morning. Slight chance of snow after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight. Chance of snow early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..East wind 5 to 10 knots backing north 5 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow likely in the morning, then slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest early in the afternoon, then rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 042108 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES
(Issued 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023)

- A period of light snow is expected to move across most of the area mainly later this evening into Tuesday morning.
- Snow accumulations up to an inch near the Illinois border are forecast, with lower amounts to the north.
- Far northern portions of the area may see little to no snow accumulation.
- Warmer Wednesday into Friday, with high uncertainty with precipitation potential over the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Issued 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

A period of light snow is expected mainly later this evening into Tuesday morning across most of southern Wisconsin. There is good upward vertical motion from the passing 500 mb shortwave trough/associated differential CVA, and the low level jet nose at 850 mb, to bring the area of light snow through. The surface low track is a little closer but still to the southwest of the area.

Models and ensembles have trended a little higher with QPF and snow amounts for areas near the Illinois border in south central Wisconsin. It looks to be up to an inch of wet, slushy snowfall near the Illinois border areas of south central Wisconsin, with lower amounts to the north. This is generally in the 75th percentile of NBM, which seems fine as the NBM tends to be underdone with light snow situations. The 25th percentile of NBM still has no snowfall and QPF in far northern portions of the area, so areas from Montello to Sheboygan may see little to no snow accumulation. Impacts are still expected to be minimal for the Tuesday early morning commute.

The snow may mix with or change to rain briefly before ending by middle to later morning on Tuesday. There may be some light rain showers that linger near the lake into the afternoon. Clouds should linger into Tuesday evening, before slowly scattering out later Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday should reach the upper 30s, with lower to middle 20s for most of the area Tuesday night.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Issued 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023)

Wednesday through Monday:

Models and ensembles are in general agreement with south to southwest winds becoming gusty within a tight pressure gradient for Wednesday into Friday. Ensemble cluster analysis for 500 mb heights continue to show an anomalous ridge shifting east across the region, which should support this setup and subsequent warm air advection and warmer answers. Went with 75th to 90th percentile temperatures from the NBM for highs Thursday into Friday for now, and may need to go higher if mixing is more robust. This brings highs into the 50s by Friday for the area.

Models and ensembles are still showing high uncertainty for precipitation trends over the upcoming weekend into early next week. Ensemble members are generally showing a wet period at some point between Saturday and Sunday night/early Monday, with low pressure moving somewhere from the southern Plains through the Middle Mississippi or Ohio River Valleys. There are phasing issues at 500 mb with this system, which is resulting in the high uncertainty. For now, left NBM PoPs and temperatures in this period, and will watch trends over the next several days.

Wood

AVIATION
(Issued 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023)

Ceilings generally 2500 to 3500 feet AGL will continue to linger across most the area into evening, gradually lowering into the 1000 to 2000 foot AGL range later this evening in south central Wisconsin. Light winds are expected into tonight.

An area of light snow should push through most of the area later this evening into early Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations of up to an inch are forecast near the Illinois border, with lower amounts to the north. Sheboygan would see the lowest accumulations of a few tenths of an inch at best, and may stay dry altogether. Snowfall rates should remain up to one tenth of an inch per hour for locations near the Illinois border. Any snow will be of the wet/higher liquid content variety.

Ceilings of 400 to 800 feet AGL are generally expected with the light snow overnight into Tuesday morning, possibly lower at times. They should rise to 1000 to 1500 feet AGL Tuesday afternoon after the snow has ended, and 1500 to 2500 feet AGL Tuesday night. Visibility values of 1 to 2 miles may occur with the more steady light snow. Winds will gradually shift to the north Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wood

MARINE
(Issued 308 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023)

Low pressure will track from southwest Minnesota to northwest Illinois tonight, then through central Indiana and into Ohio on Tuesday. Light winds tonight will become north to northwest Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwest winds will then develop across the region later Wednesday and linger into the rest of the week. Gusty winds may linger at times into the upcoming weekend.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed at times Wednesday night into the upcoming weekend for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Some gusts may approach gale force over the open waters of Lake Michigan at times over the weekend.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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