Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monona, WI
October 4, 2024 12:29 AM CDT (05:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:57 AM Sunset 6:34 PM Moonrise 8:50 AM Moonset 7:10 PM |
LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 3 2024
Rest of tonight - North wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Saturday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then veering south with gusts to around 30 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 8 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 040229 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few light showers tonight with a cold front.
- Breezy and warmer Saturday ahead of another front, which will bring additional rain chances and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, Saturday night.
- Windy Sunday, then dry and mild for much of the week.
UPDATE
Issued 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Mid level warm advection and frontogenesis is resulting in sw-ne oriented radar returns from north central IA to the La Crosse area. This is occurring within the right entrance region of a 120 kt jet, and ahead of a shortwave trough that will track from ND to Upper MI into Fri AM. The forecast is on track for the mid level frontogenesis to shift sewd across srn WI tnt but weaken a bit with time. Thus the best chances for showers reaching the ground will be in the nrn CWA Will maintain 40 percent chances in the nrn CWA to 20 percent in the south.
Clouds will decrease quickly after sunrise on Fri and high pressure will move across central WI through the day. High temps near 70F expected.
Gehring
SHORT TERM
Issued 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Tonight through Friday night:
Dry conditions will persist into this evening in the wake of a weak cold front. We'll have to wait a bit before anafrontal clouds and precipitation in association with mid to upper level fgen move overhead during the early morning hours on Friday.
Soundings show deep saturation above 700mb all the way up to around 250mb, so even though a significant depth of dry air will be present near the surface, light rain should occur in scattered spots, especially over central WI where fgen will be strongest. Light rain showers should move south of the area shortly after dawn.
Skies should gradually clear Friday morning and a high pressure center will move over the northern half of the state during the afternoon. Conditions will be cooler on Friday owing to CAA behind the front, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 359 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Saturday through Thursday:
Strong ridging and warm advection will occur on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front as the pressure gradient gets crunched between the front and retreating high pressure..
Daytime highs will rise into the mid to upper 70s as a result beneath mostly clear skies. Winds will be high Saturday, with gusts to 30 mph.
Saturday evening, convergence and fgen along the front should support high based showers and thunderstorms primarily during the evening to overnight hours. Severe weather is not expected, but MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and dry low levels may support gusty winds with some of the stronger storms.
Cold advection will then kick in behind the front and blustery cool conditions are expected Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s. By Monday, the dry canadian high will move overhead with lighter winds and similar temperatures.
After Monday, temperatures slowly rise and conditions remain dry. We'll have to watch conditions next week as fuels dry and temperatures warm, as those ingredients may elevate fire weather concerns.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
VFR conditions tnt-Fri nt. Mid level clouds of 7-10 kft will oversspread srn WI this evening and linger into Fri AM. Areas of very light showers will be possible.
Gehring
MARINE
Issued 356 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
A cold front will slowly sink south of the lake tonight. Winds will become light and variable for a time, before a light band of showers sinks southward behind the front during the late evening and overnight hours. Winds will come around to north and northeasterly with the showers and become breezy briefly before wind die off again after dawn on Friday.
High pressure will then cross Lake Michigan during the day tomorrow, maintaining a generally northerly wind pattern. Low pressure will develop over the northern Great Plains on Saturday, with increasing southeast winds ahead of a cold front, which will pass through the area Saturday evening. Southerly gales are looking increasingly probable on Saturday ahead of the front, with west to northwest gales possible Saturday night and Sunday behind.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ645-LMZ646...2 AM Friday to 9 AM Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few light showers tonight with a cold front.
- Breezy and warmer Saturday ahead of another front, which will bring additional rain chances and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, Saturday night.
- Windy Sunday, then dry and mild for much of the week.
UPDATE
Issued 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Mid level warm advection and frontogenesis is resulting in sw-ne oriented radar returns from north central IA to the La Crosse area. This is occurring within the right entrance region of a 120 kt jet, and ahead of a shortwave trough that will track from ND to Upper MI into Fri AM. The forecast is on track for the mid level frontogenesis to shift sewd across srn WI tnt but weaken a bit with time. Thus the best chances for showers reaching the ground will be in the nrn CWA Will maintain 40 percent chances in the nrn CWA to 20 percent in the south.
Clouds will decrease quickly after sunrise on Fri and high pressure will move across central WI through the day. High temps near 70F expected.
Gehring
SHORT TERM
Issued 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Tonight through Friday night:
Dry conditions will persist into this evening in the wake of a weak cold front. We'll have to wait a bit before anafrontal clouds and precipitation in association with mid to upper level fgen move overhead during the early morning hours on Friday.
Soundings show deep saturation above 700mb all the way up to around 250mb, so even though a significant depth of dry air will be present near the surface, light rain should occur in scattered spots, especially over central WI where fgen will be strongest. Light rain showers should move south of the area shortly after dawn.
Skies should gradually clear Friday morning and a high pressure center will move over the northern half of the state during the afternoon. Conditions will be cooler on Friday owing to CAA behind the front, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 359 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Saturday through Thursday:
Strong ridging and warm advection will occur on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front as the pressure gradient gets crunched between the front and retreating high pressure..
Daytime highs will rise into the mid to upper 70s as a result beneath mostly clear skies. Winds will be high Saturday, with gusts to 30 mph.
Saturday evening, convergence and fgen along the front should support high based showers and thunderstorms primarily during the evening to overnight hours. Severe weather is not expected, but MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and dry low levels may support gusty winds with some of the stronger storms.
Cold advection will then kick in behind the front and blustery cool conditions are expected Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s. By Monday, the dry canadian high will move overhead with lighter winds and similar temperatures.
After Monday, temperatures slowly rise and conditions remain dry. We'll have to watch conditions next week as fuels dry and temperatures warm, as those ingredients may elevate fire weather concerns.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
VFR conditions tnt-Fri nt. Mid level clouds of 7-10 kft will oversspread srn WI this evening and linger into Fri AM. Areas of very light showers will be possible.
Gehring
MARINE
Issued 356 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
A cold front will slowly sink south of the lake tonight. Winds will become light and variable for a time, before a light band of showers sinks southward behind the front during the late evening and overnight hours. Winds will come around to north and northeasterly with the showers and become breezy briefly before wind die off again after dawn on Friday.
High pressure will then cross Lake Michigan during the day tomorrow, maintaining a generally northerly wind pattern. Low pressure will develop over the northern Great Plains on Saturday, with increasing southeast winds ahead of a cold front, which will pass through the area Saturday evening. Southerly gales are looking increasingly probable on Saturday ahead of the front, with west to northwest gales possible Saturday night and Sunday behind.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ645-LMZ646...2 AM Friday to 9 AM Friday.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSN
Wind History Graph: MSN
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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Milwaukee, WI,
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