Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Akron, NY

KEY MESSAGES

1) Comfortable temperatures and humidity through the rest of the weekend.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity much of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Comfortable temperatures and humidity through the rest of the weekend.

Most areas will remain dry this afternoon, although a few spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible with peak daytime heating across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Coverage of any convection will remain sparse, with any showers quickly ending early this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes.

Comfortable temperatures and humidity will continue through the rest of the weekend with gradual day to day warming. High pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes will provide good radiational cooling conditions tonight, with lows dropping back into the mid to upper 50s in most areas. Expect some patchy fog again overnight through Sunday morning, mainly across the valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Sunday, temperatures will creep up a few more degrees with ongoing weak warm advection. Highs will reach the lower 80s for lower elevations, and mid to upper 70s for higher terrain and the lakeshores. There is a slight chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon, but the better chance of more organized convection will remain south of the area across Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity likely much of next week.

Model and ensemble guidance continue to be in good agreement with the evolution of a classic heat dome across the eastern half of the United States next week. A strong and expansive mid/upper level ridge will center on the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, and then remain in place while expanding to the east coast through the end of next week. 850MB temps rise to near +20C by Tuesday afternoon, then remain +20C or higher through at least Friday.

Temperatures will begin to ramp up Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints will remain tolerable however, with upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints yielding no appreciable heat index above the actual temperature.

The heat and humidity will begin in earnest Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 90s for lower elevations away from the immediate lakeshores. Highs will continue to run in the mid 90s for lower elevations Wednesday through Friday, with even a few upper 90s readings possible. Dewpoints will become oppressive, likely in the low to mid 70s much of the time from Tuesday onward. This will yield a heat index in the 100-105F range for many lower elevation locations each afternoon, possibly reaching or exceeding heat warning criteria (105F) on some days. Very warm and muggy nights will offer little relief from the heat for those without air conditioning, and increase the likelihood of heat related illness for vulnerable populations.

Much of the time will be dry, but the eastern Great Lakes will be near the northern periphery of the ridge axis. This may allow for a few periods of thunderstorms. The best chances will likely be Tuesday as a warm front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, and then again late next week into the Fourth of July weekend as the ridge axis begins to flatten and the westerlies settle back southward into the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Southern edge of weak mid level trough will graze northern NY, possibly forcing an isolated shower or storm across the North Country, best chance across the higher terrain. Meanwhile, stationary boundary over PA will sag a bit further south, but still remain close enough to potentially trigger a few scattered showers/storms across our three southernmost counties along the NY/PA border. Otherwise, high pressure to our north will keep an easterly wind component in place this afternoon, limiting the amount of lake shadowing typically observed across our area on any given day. Expecting mainly FEW-SCT decks in the 040-060kft range, however brief periods of marginal MVFR decks will be possible, especially across the higher terrain (KJHW).

Diurnal cu will fade this evening with the setting sun, leaving mainly VFR conditions in place tonight, however fog will again be a question for some areas. Not expecting much in the way of widespread impacts from fog across the majority of our area, with the best chance for fog across the Southern Tier, especially in the valleys.
Other player again will be the amount of cloud cover near the NY/PA line with the stationary boundary still lingering to the south. Even if a period of low VFR/marginal MVFR CIGS do form across the Southern Tier, there will likely be breaks in the cloud cover, which may allow for areas of fog to form.

Any fog/lower clouds lift out early Sunday, leaving widespread VFR flight conditions through the day, with a light east to northeast wind.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Northeast winds on Lake Erie will produce a light to moderate chop Sunday, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Otherwise, light winds and minimal wave action are expected tonight through Monday with a weak pressure gradient over the lower Great Lakes. Southwest winds will increase Tuesday into the 10-15 knot range, with similar winds each day through the end of next week.
This will produce choppy conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, but winds and waves will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.