Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sodus, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warmer today with increasing humidity. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across western NY.

2) The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday and Friday, with unsettled weather continuing through the weekend. Any thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Warmer today with increasing humidity.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across western NY.

GOES water vapor imagery shows increasing moisture across the region as well as a few disturbances approaching from the south and west this afternoon. Cumulus clouds are rapidly developing in an area of instability across western NY. A south-southwest flow will continue to advect warm, moist air with PWATS climbing to near 1.5" by this evening across western NY. The combination of approaching large scale ascent and deep moisture, and daytime heating will support scattered showers and few thunderstorms across western NY through early evening. The flow aloft is weak and therefore the threat for severe thunderstorms is low, however localized heavy rain is possible through this evening. Drier air will continue to reside across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will lessen across western NY tonight, however chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm will increase across the Saint Lawrence Valley.

Key Message 2...The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday and Friday, with unsettled weather continuing through the weekend. Any thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours.

A deep southwest flow will remain across the region ahead of an approaching shortwave trough Thursday. Deep moisture remains across the region, with the axis of the highest PWATS (2") near the east coast. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop inland from the Lakes with locally heavy rainfall possible.
While 0-6km shear is expected to increase to 25kts Thursday afternoon, mid-level lapse rates remain weak. The severe threat remains low.

Another shortwave trough and approaching front are expected to approach the region Friday. Uncertainty in coverage and timing of showers and thunderstorms increases Friday. Cloud cover as well as showers in the morning could limit how much instability forms through peak heating. If clearing occurs, another round of diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with greater chances inland from the Lakes. The muggy airmass will remain across the region and locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out.

The weather will remain unsettled through the weekend as a trough flattens out across the forecast area. A cold front is expected to move across the region which will be a focus of showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Another front is expected to approach the region Sunday with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. While it doesn't look like a washout, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions early this afternoon across area terminals with SCT- BKN low-level clouds developing around 4-7 kft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon into the early evening that could result in MVFR conditions near terminal sites, especially KJHW. Lingering showers may persist overnight with IFR conditions developing across the Southern Tier with low clouds expected near KJHW early Thursday morning. Otherwise, most terminals will remain VFR.

Outlook...

Thursday Afternoon through Monday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are expected, especially each afternoon through early evening.

MARINE
An approaching front and trough will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Outside of a strong thunderstorm, light winds will support minimal wave action across the Lower Great Lakes through the start of the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.