Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamlin, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Very windy into this morning, especially west of the Finger Lakes region, then winds will weaken through the afternoon hours.

2) Impactful snowfall will continue across across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie into this morning, and into this afternoon across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

3) Another round of strong winds is becoming increasingly likely from Sunday night through Monday night.

4)Cold weather returns with gusty winds and lake effect snow Tuesday through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very windy into this morning, especially west of the Finger Lakes region, then winds will weaken through the afternoon hours.

Compact clipper low in the process of passing just north of Lake Ontario and will make its way into the Ottawa Valley around daybreak. The low will continue to gradually weaken from a current pressure of 997mb to around 1000mb by 12Z, although the strongest segment of the attendant strong LLJ will pass across the region from now through this morning. With our area now within the cold air advection regime in the wake of the system's trailing cold front, relatively steep low level lapse rates and efficient momentum transfer down to the surface will help produce our strongest overall wind gusts through mid morning or so.

Within the High Wind Warning area, 55-65 mph wind gusts are expected, highest close to Lake Erie. Further inland, gusts to 45-55 mph will will continue across the Wind Advisory area. Winds will gradually relax from west to east, especially this afternoon, leaving behind just a modest residual breeze by evening.

One other potential issue...The winds snapping southwesterly and increasing along Lake Erie today could cause fast ice on the eastern end of the lake to begin moving and piling against some areas around the Buffalo Harbor. While this setup bears some similarities to the last big ice shove back in February of 2019, the static Lake Erie water level is about 2.5ft lower compared to that year which will greatly hamper the chances for this event to have much impact. In addition, southwesterly winds do not appear to be as strong as the previous event. This is something that will continue to be closely monitored, however confidence remains low and thus have opted to continue forgoing Lakeshore Flood products.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Impactful snowfall will continue across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie into this morning, and into this afternoon across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

The same clipper system described in Key Message (1) will continue to bring accumulating snowfall to the region, especially the higher terrain. Upslope snows took a bit longer to get going east of Lake Erie, however over the past couple of hours have started to intensify, especially over the higher terrain of southeastern Erie, Wyoming, and northern Cattaraugus counties where the Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 11 AM this morning for an additional 3-6 inches possible. This has lowered storm total amounts a bit, however with ongoing moderate to heavy snow in place across these areas, will leave headlines as is, especially with the very strong winds exacerbating the conditions. The lower terrain areas of western NY will see a dusting to 2 inches for most spots.

For the eastern Lake Ontario region, the forecast generally remains on track so far with moderate to heavy lake enhanced/upslope snow expected to continue through this morning into at least a portion of the afternoon with an additional 6-12 inches possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks before tapering off later today as the low pulls away from the region. Significantly lower snow amounts are expected across the lower elevations, with storm total amounts of 1 to 4 inches possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another round of strong winds is becoming increasingly likely from Sunday night through Monday night.

The pattern across the Lower 48 will become increasingly amplified with a strong ridge building across the east Sunday through Sunday night. A warm front will quickly lift northward across the region Sunday morning, and after a brief period of snow Sunday morning, temperatures and winds will increase across the region. A deepening area of low pressure will move from the Central Plains to the Central Great Lakes, with an anomalously strong low-level jet moving across the forecast area. Breezy conditions are expected across the region, with strong wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph across favorable downslope regions of the Chautauqua Ridge, and Tug Hill. Ridgetops across the Finger Lakes region may also tap into the strong winds aloft.

Model guidance has been consistent that the surface low will move from Lower Michigan to Ontario and southern Quebec Sunday night through Monday. The low will continue to deepen with an ensemble mean MSLP of 984mb as the low moves into southern Quebec Monday.
During this time, an associated strong cold front is expected to move across the forecast area. Strong cold air advection is expected behind the front, and strong winds are expected behind the front as it moves from west to east Monday. The core of the strongest winds is expected in the warm sector, however model guidance suggests these winds could still be available to mix down behind the front especially across far western NY and the Saint Lawrence Valley.
Strong mixing in cold air advection is increasing confidence of wind gusts over 45 mph northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Latest NBM probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph Monday is 50-60% across immediate locations northeast of the Lakes. Another round of wind headlines are possible.

Another factor with this system will rain along and ahead of the front. Instability may have time to increase ahead of the front and may result in a line of showers and possibly some thunder across the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Cold weather returns with gusty winds and lake effect snow Tuesday through Tuesday night.

An arctic airmass is expected to move into the eastern Great Lakes region Monday night through Tuesday night. Temperatures will take a dive Monday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -16 to -19 degC into Tuesday morning. Steep low-level lapse rates with lake-induced equilibrium levels rising 6-8 kft will be supportive of lake effect snow development in the wake of this system for Tuesday through Wednesday. A broad area of 40knots at 850mb and a well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty winds Tuesday. While Lake Ontario remains wide open and west-northwest flow likely providing a nice upstream connection to Lake Huron, there is more uncertainty surrounding what may develop off of Lake Erie. The northeastern half of Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered, but there is an area of open water closer to Long Point that may provide an opportunity for late season lake snows in western NY through midweek.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mix of mainly MVFR/low VFR CIGS found across the terminals currently, with some IFR CIGS across the higher terrain. Mainly light snow shower activity ongoing across much of western and northcentral NY, with localized IFR/LIFR VSBYs confined to the higher terrain east of the lakes where moderate to heavy snow is falling. CIGS are expected to lower to mainly MVFR across all terminals through daybreak. Strong W to SW winds will continue with the strongest winds (gusts of 50-55 knots) expected to be along a rough KDKK-KBUF/KIAG-KROC axis through mid morning.

Leftover scattered snow showers and areas of more concentrated snow showers across the higher terrain east of the lakes this morning will wind down from west to east this afternoon. Flight conditions will follow suit with MVFR (LIFR/IFR in higher terrain snow) this morning expected to gradually improve to VFR from west to east through the afternoon hours. Strong winds will continue this morning, then weaken through the afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected this evening.

Outlook...

Tonight...Mainly VFR.

Sunday.. MVFR/IFR with snow changing to rain. Windy.

Monday.. MVFR/IFR with rain changing to snow. Windy.

Tuesday and Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with chances for snow east of both lakes. Breezy.

MARINE
A couple of low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes through early next week, bringing rounds of Gale Force winds. The first of these will continue to impact the lakes through the first part of today, with a second round then following Monday into Tuesday.

Please note, most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

HYDROLOGY
The Black River is in minor flood from Dadville to Watertown this morning. The river is expected to crest at Watertown today and slowly fall through tonight. A Flood Warning remains in effect for this segment of the Black River.

Looking ahead, a warm-up is expected Sunday through Monday and will contribute to additional snowmelt across the Tug Hill region. Rain is expected Monday through Monday evening, before changing over to snow as temperatures rapidly drop across the region. Forecast rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.00" are expected across the Tug Hill region, and the combination of rain and snowmelt will likely cause rises on area rivers and creeks. Ensemble river forecasts show locations on the Black River rising back near action stage, and a very low chance of reaching flood stage.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>003- 010>012-020-085.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ004-005-013- 014-021.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ006>008.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ012- 020-085.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042-062.
Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ043>045- 063>065.