Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID
July 27, 2024 6:01 AM MDT (12:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 9:04 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM Moonset 1:01 PM |
FXUS65 KPIH 271014 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 414 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday night.
Main impact today will be upper level short wave moving northeast into eastern Idaho which will induce showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. Expect activity to begin early this morning in the southeast corner of the state mainly south of interstates 84 and 86. Activity will spread north this afternoon with mainly scattered coverage. Will see outflow gusts approaching 50 mph near storms with locally heavy showers under any strong storms.
Activity will die down after sunset. It will remain cooler with highs in the 70s mountains and 80s valleys. Another weak upper level system will again produce showers and thunderstorms Sunday with most activity in the central mountains and eastern highlands.
Will not be as widespread as Saturday. The cooler conditions will continue with highs again in the 70s mountains and 80s lower elevations. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s both Saturday and Sunday night. Will have 10 to 20 mph sustained winds Sunday in the Snake River Plain and Arco desert regions.
GK
LONG TERM
Monday through next Saturday.
The shortwave trough hanging out over the Pacific NW through the end of this weekend will continue to influence our weather in the beginning of the week. The vast majority of the ensemble guidance has this trough slowly eroding as it creeps eastward into Idaho Tuesday. PWATs really fall off after this weekend with dry southwesterly flow established, so afternoon thunderstorm activity will be fairly limited, but cannot rule out some isolated activity on Tuesday afternoon through the central Idaho mountains. Perhaps more impactful, we'll see the pressure gradient tighten up to the point where breezy conditions are forecast for most locations Monday afternoon and then stronger winds are forecast for Tuesday.
Temperatures will still be limited to near or just below seasonal averages, but relatively dry and windy conditions will of course mean more fire weather concerns for any ongoing or new fires throughout the area. Something to monitor in our Fire Weather section in the coming days.
Upper-level flow will go largely zonal for midweek with modest temperature gains, but GEFS/EPS show high pressure beginning to build back into the four corners region of the southwest in the latter part of the week. By Friday and Saturday of the coming week, the ECMWF EFI showing Max Temperature EFI values in the 0.7 to 0.8 range indicating a moderately high confidence heat wave set to return during that time. Currently seeing fairly low spread among Max T values ranging from 5 to 7 degrees above averages. So, despite the recent cooler weather, summer is still very much upon us here in eastern Idaho.
TAX
AVIATION
Pre-dawn satellite imagery showing increased cloudiness and shower activity associated with a shortwave trough lifting northeastward out of Utah. This activity will continue to push north and east through 16-18z from near I-15 at the UT/ID state line through just south of DIJ. Hi-res models showing the bulk of the activity staying south of PIH/DIJ, but cannot rule out at least brief surface wind influence through 18z. Thereafter, we'll see shower and thunderstorm activity begin to blossom by 21z. This could locally impact all ports across eastern Idaho through the afternoon with brief gusty winds with any near shower or thunderstorm activity.
The increased mixing with shower/thunderstorm activity, as well as any outflow winds should help to disperse locally smokey conditions, beginning across southeast Idaho this morning. We could see some visibility improvement push north from PIH to IDA and DIJ this morning into midday.
TAX
FIRE WEATHER
Red Flag Warnings cover nearly all fire districts today with the exception of zone 422. Expect an upper level shortwave to produce scattered thunderstorms beginning this morning in zone 413 and expect it to overspread the remainder of Idaho after noon. Expect more isolated coverage in zone 422 but the heavier coverage will be in the southern and eastern mountains. Thunderstorms will die down after sunset. Main threats will be 40 to 60 mph outflow near the stronger storms which will cause extreme behavior on existing fires. Storms will dissipate after sunset and will have afternoon development on Sunday as well mainly in zones 411, 410 and 413 with scattered coverage in zone 411 and isolated elsewhere. AT this point no red flag warnings in effect Sunday and uncertainty at extent of coverage and will wait for more model runs to decide on issuing any product tomorrow. Minimum humidity should be above 15 percent for the most part this weekend other than a few locations in the Lemhi valley.
GK
AIR QUALITY
Air Quality overnight has lingered mostly in the Unhealthy range for much of the Magic Valley, lower Snake Plain, Wood River Valley and upper Snake Highlands. Air Quality Alerts are in effect for much of eastern Idaho, relayed from our partners at the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (ID DEQ).
The HRRR smoke model showing near surface smoke resident throughout most valley locations in eastern Idaho through the pre-dawn hours this morning. Some improvement is noted in this hi-res model, however beginning in the southeast corner of Idaho as the wave of shower and thunderstorm activity this morning expands northeastward out of Utah. In theory this precipitation and additional mixing could help to clear the air south to north through the eastern Highlands and South Hills into midday Saturday. Additional shower and thunderstorm development through the afternoon Saturday will only help with continued mixing.
Any significant improvements will likely only be temporary, however, as there is no shortage of upstream smoke production from the wildfires in OR, and CA. Expect continued degraded air quality on Sunday with less confidence heading into early next week.
TAX
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-425-427-475-476.
Red Flag Warning from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 414 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday night.
Main impact today will be upper level short wave moving northeast into eastern Idaho which will induce showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. Expect activity to begin early this morning in the southeast corner of the state mainly south of interstates 84 and 86. Activity will spread north this afternoon with mainly scattered coverage. Will see outflow gusts approaching 50 mph near storms with locally heavy showers under any strong storms.
Activity will die down after sunset. It will remain cooler with highs in the 70s mountains and 80s valleys. Another weak upper level system will again produce showers and thunderstorms Sunday with most activity in the central mountains and eastern highlands.
Will not be as widespread as Saturday. The cooler conditions will continue with highs again in the 70s mountains and 80s lower elevations. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s both Saturday and Sunday night. Will have 10 to 20 mph sustained winds Sunday in the Snake River Plain and Arco desert regions.
GK
LONG TERM
Monday through next Saturday.
The shortwave trough hanging out over the Pacific NW through the end of this weekend will continue to influence our weather in the beginning of the week. The vast majority of the ensemble guidance has this trough slowly eroding as it creeps eastward into Idaho Tuesday. PWATs really fall off after this weekend with dry southwesterly flow established, so afternoon thunderstorm activity will be fairly limited, but cannot rule out some isolated activity on Tuesday afternoon through the central Idaho mountains. Perhaps more impactful, we'll see the pressure gradient tighten up to the point where breezy conditions are forecast for most locations Monday afternoon and then stronger winds are forecast for Tuesday.
Temperatures will still be limited to near or just below seasonal averages, but relatively dry and windy conditions will of course mean more fire weather concerns for any ongoing or new fires throughout the area. Something to monitor in our Fire Weather section in the coming days.
Upper-level flow will go largely zonal for midweek with modest temperature gains, but GEFS/EPS show high pressure beginning to build back into the four corners region of the southwest in the latter part of the week. By Friday and Saturday of the coming week, the ECMWF EFI showing Max Temperature EFI values in the 0.7 to 0.8 range indicating a moderately high confidence heat wave set to return during that time. Currently seeing fairly low spread among Max T values ranging from 5 to 7 degrees above averages. So, despite the recent cooler weather, summer is still very much upon us here in eastern Idaho.
TAX
AVIATION
Pre-dawn satellite imagery showing increased cloudiness and shower activity associated with a shortwave trough lifting northeastward out of Utah. This activity will continue to push north and east through 16-18z from near I-15 at the UT/ID state line through just south of DIJ. Hi-res models showing the bulk of the activity staying south of PIH/DIJ, but cannot rule out at least brief surface wind influence through 18z. Thereafter, we'll see shower and thunderstorm activity begin to blossom by 21z. This could locally impact all ports across eastern Idaho through the afternoon with brief gusty winds with any near shower or thunderstorm activity.
The increased mixing with shower/thunderstorm activity, as well as any outflow winds should help to disperse locally smokey conditions, beginning across southeast Idaho this morning. We could see some visibility improvement push north from PIH to IDA and DIJ this morning into midday.
TAX
FIRE WEATHER
Red Flag Warnings cover nearly all fire districts today with the exception of zone 422. Expect an upper level shortwave to produce scattered thunderstorms beginning this morning in zone 413 and expect it to overspread the remainder of Idaho after noon. Expect more isolated coverage in zone 422 but the heavier coverage will be in the southern and eastern mountains. Thunderstorms will die down after sunset. Main threats will be 40 to 60 mph outflow near the stronger storms which will cause extreme behavior on existing fires. Storms will dissipate after sunset and will have afternoon development on Sunday as well mainly in zones 411, 410 and 413 with scattered coverage in zone 411 and isolated elsewhere. AT this point no red flag warnings in effect Sunday and uncertainty at extent of coverage and will wait for more model runs to decide on issuing any product tomorrow. Minimum humidity should be above 15 percent for the most part this weekend other than a few locations in the Lemhi valley.
GK
AIR QUALITY
Air Quality overnight has lingered mostly in the Unhealthy range for much of the Magic Valley, lower Snake Plain, Wood River Valley and upper Snake Highlands. Air Quality Alerts are in effect for much of eastern Idaho, relayed from our partners at the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (ID DEQ).
The HRRR smoke model showing near surface smoke resident throughout most valley locations in eastern Idaho through the pre-dawn hours this morning. Some improvement is noted in this hi-res model, however beginning in the southeast corner of Idaho as the wave of shower and thunderstorm activity this morning expands northeastward out of Utah. In theory this precipitation and additional mixing could help to clear the air south to north through the eastern Highlands and South Hills into midday Saturday. Additional shower and thunderstorm development through the afternoon Saturday will only help with continued mixing.
Any significant improvements will likely only be temporary, however, as there is no shortage of upstream smoke production from the wildfires in OR, and CA. Expect continued degraded air quality on Sunday with less confidence heading into early next week.
TAX
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-425-427-475-476.
Red Flag Warning from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUN
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUN
Wind History graph: SUN
(wind in knots)
Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,
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