NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Lather, rinse, repeat. Dominant, blocking high pressure surface and aloft over the Northeast US will essentially allow our weather to repeat again tonight through Monday, with very similar conditions to the past few days.

The diurnal cumulus have mostly dissipated, with clear skies across the region late this evening. The clear skies and light winds overnight will promote patchy fog east of Lake Ontario and across the river valleys of the Southern Tier. Lows will drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most areas, with some low to mid 50s in the typical cool spots of the Southern Tier and North Country.

Monday, another dry day as the ridge and high pressure over the region slowly pushes east. Some high clouds will advance north into the area later in the day out ahead of an approaching low pressure system, and some diurnal cumulus will likely develop again inland from the lakes. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations to the upper 70s for higher terrain. Local lake breeze circulations will keep the lakeshores in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Deep-layer ridging still draped across our region Monday night will withdraw southeastward into the western Atlantic through midweek.
Meanwhile a subtropical/tropical low near the Carolina coast Monday evening will push inland and weaken Monday night and Tuesday...with the remnant broad mid/upper level circulation from this feature then continuing to push northwestward to the central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley through the end of the period.

The slowly departing ridge will maintain fair dry weather across our region through Monday night...with just a gradual south-to-north increase in mid and high clouds anticipated well out ahead of the aforementioned coastal system
Thereafter
increasing/deepening southeasterly flow in between the advancing low and departing ridge will advect increasing amounts of Atlantic moisture into our region through midweek...bringing a general increase in cloud cover and eventually some shower chances.

With nature yet to really show its hand with respect to how much subtropical/tropical development of this system will occur before it moves inland...the various guidance packages rather unsurprisingly continue to struggle with its track/speed/strength...and consequently the timing and placement of any associated showers.
With this in mind have continued to lean more heavily toward a mix of continuity and blended guidance...and have just indicated a mix of 20-40 PoPs spreading across the area from south to north Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for now.

As for temperatures...these will still remain above normal given little to no change to our warmer-than-average airmass...though in general daytime highs should trend a little downward through midweek with the increasing cloud cover and shower potential...with these primarily ranging through the 70s by Wednesday. Meanwhile the increasing cloud cover will have the opposite effect on nightly lows...with these moderating to the upper 50s and lower 60s for both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic region will merge with a trough over the Northeast region Thursday through Friday. An anomalously strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley will move into Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, replacing the trough as it exits to the east.

Moisture will be somewhat pooled under a weakening upper level low across the Mid-Atlantic region into New York State Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered near the Upper Great Lakes and extend into western and north central NY. Daytime heating and dewpoints in the 60s may result in the development of showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through evening. Due to no obvious lifting mechanisms nearby, coverage looks scattered. Subsidence builds into the region Friday which will be mostly dry, however isolated to scattered showers remain possible inland from the lakes.
A 585dm ridge will move into the region Saturday and Sunday, with medium to high confidence of another warm and dry weekend.

Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Saturday.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Diurnal cumulus have dissipated this evening, leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Expect patchy fog with local IFR once again tonight through Monday morning, mainly across the river valleys of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Most of the TAF sites will stay VFR overnight. KJHW has not been impacted much by fog the past few nights, and expect that trend to continue tonight. KART may see some IFR from late evening through early Monday morning.

Monday, once the fog burns off, expect VFR to prevail the rest of the day with some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon, and a modest increase in high cirrus from south to north later in the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the eastern Great Lakes early this week, with light winds and minimal wave action. Light synoptic scale winds will again allow local lake breeze circulations to develop Monday afternoon with onshore winds of 5-10 knots in most areas.

The pressure gradient will tighten a bit by Tuesday as a low pressure system slowly drifts northward from the Mid-Atlantic states. This will lead to a prevailing light to moderate east- northeasterly breeze on the lakes, which could result in a minor chop on the western end of Lake Ontario at times. This low pressure system could also bring a few showers to the lakes around midweek.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.