Reedsburg, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reedsburg, WI

April 21, 2024 10:35 PM CDT (03:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM
Moonrise 4:48 PM   Moonset 4:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsburg, WI
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 220300 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1000 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for patchy frost tonight, with more widespread frost/freeze concerns Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

- Elevated fire weather potential on Monday.

- Rain chances return Monday evening, continuing through Tuesday.

- More active pattern into late next week.

UPDATE
Issued 1000 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Observed temperatures across the region are trending close to prior forecast expectations, indicating that widespread frost is unlikely tonight (hence we have not issued a frost advisory at this time). Localized areas of patchy frost may yet develop, especially in areas away from urban heat islands effects and the Lake Michigan shoreline. Even in said "cooler areas", forecast soundings from CAMs indicate impressive radiational surface inversions (as expected with clear skies and rapidly decelerating sfc winds tonight), yet they indicate surface temperatures above freezing through the night. Tonight's residual layer features relatively slow wind speeds (around 15 knots 500 to 1000 ft AGL), but not slow enough for complete decoupling of the lower PBL or widespread frost formation.

Elevated fire weather conditions remain a concern for Monday.
Model guidance for dewpoints has trended slightly towards the drier direction, yet guidance for the approach of upper-altitude cloud cover Monday afternoon has trended slightly in the cloudier direction (which may limit afternoon mixing and dewpoint depressions). These opposing trends suggest the forecast for daily minimum RH around 25% for most areas (with the potential to fall to near 20% if mixing over-performs)
remains on track.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
Issued 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

Clear skies and breezy northwesterly winds will continue through tonight, with a few diurnal cumulus clouds across central and southeastern Wisconsin dissipating into this evening. Winds will diminish into this evening, becoming light and northwesterly.
Due to high pressure sinking farther south than previously modeled, light southwesterly winds and mixing remains likely in the lowest portions of the boundary layer. This would lead to prevention of frost formation in most regions, but frost is still possible in the Kettle Moraine and low lying areas, including the Wisconsin River Valley. In addition, temperatures look to only briefly fall below freezing just before sunrise, and most areas look to remain in the 33 to 35 degree range. Held off on any Frost Advisories due to these less than favorable conditions for widespread frost development, but will continue to monitor trends into this evening.

Monday, southwesterly winds increase. This will bring in warmer temperatures, especially with minimal cloud cover in the morning. Expecting highs in the mid-60s. In addition, relative humidity values will fall into the 25 to 30 percent range. If temperatures rise into the upper 60s ahead of cloud cover, relative humidities may fall to near 20 percent. This, in conjunction with winds becoming gusty at 25 to 30 mph during the early to mid afternoon hours and the potential for drier air above the boundary layer inversion to intrude downward, may result in elevated fire weather concerns.

Southwesterly winds continue ahead of a low pressure passage to the north Monday night. Showers are expected to develop ahead of this passage and will progress eastward through the overnight hours. Additional showers will continue to develop into Tuesday morning as the parent low occludes to the east.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

As the low pressure system advancing from the Northern Plains toward the northern Great Lakes Region Tuesday more rain is expected across southern Wisconsin. The signal for much of the day to be dry is increasing as the low pressure system is expected to weaken and elongate as it approaches the state. As the system weakens, forecast soundings are showing increasing dry mid and low level air moving in Tuesday morning. By the afternoon/evening precipitation looks more likely (70-80% chance)
with the passage of the cold front. Moisture advection will help saturate the air column with the southwest winds out ahead of this frontal boundary. There will be a small chance (~20%) for a few thunderstorms Tuesday evening with the passage of this frontal boundary, but not expecting much in the way of strong or severe storms as this time.

Dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure s expected to move through the state. Wednesday will be a bit cooler due to the northerly flow and cold air advection behind the cold front with high temperatures expected to top out in the 50s.
This period of cooler temperature will be near normal for this time of year and will be short lived with temperatures return to the 60s on Thursday.

Rain looks likely (70-80%) again for the end of the work week and into the weekend. A trough and a few shortwaves look to advect out of the desert southwest headed toward the Great Lakes Region.
There is a fair amount of uncertainty with the timing and location. The recent guidance has slowed this system down quiet a bit already with the majority of the rain looking to hold off until later Friday. Will have to keep an eye on this system moving forward as guidance comes to a greater consensus.

Patterson

AVIATION
Issued 1000 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Gentle southwest flow (around 5 kts) becoming light and variable tonight under clear skies. Southwest flow picks up after sunrise Monday, with gusty winds from noon Monday through Monday night.
Upper altitude clouds approach and thicken Monday afternoon, with rainshowers likely Monday evening through Monday night.
Cloud ceilings are currently expected to bottom out around 5500 feet during this light rain event, allowing VFR conditions to continue. However, a low-level jet streak is expected to deliver fast southwesterlies (roughly 45 kts) 2000 ft above ground level, resulting in a chance for low level wind shear Monday night, especially if surface winds can decelerate slightly after dark.

Sheppard

MARINE
Issued 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Westerly winds have shifted to become southerly across the northern portions of the Lake as high pressure sinks southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and low pressure remains in place over northern Quebec. Winds remain light through the overnight hours. Breezy south winds will develop Monday, shifting westerly into Tuesday afternoon as low pressure approaches the northern Great Lakes from Saskatchewan and Manitoba and passes to the north. Winds could approach gale force during this time, while winds in the nearshore regions will reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds shift to northerly Tuesday night as the low passes eastward and a cold front moves down the lake. Northerly gales and additional Small Craft Advisory winds will be possible behind the front.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDLL BARABOOWISCONSIN DELLS RGNL,WI 13 sm20 minSW 0310 smClear45°F28°F53%30.08
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