Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northfield, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The digging trough which brought our winter storm is directly overhead with the axis tilting ever so slightly from NNW to SSE, placing our area within the anticyclonic vorticity advection region.
As such, subsidence will be strengthening today coupled with surface high pressure sliding in behind the departing low pressure system that is already over the eastern Great Lakes. There is a lingering surface gradient between the two differing pressure areas, which is keeping our winds blustery tonight with gusts expected to gradually diminish throughout the day. There is enough wind tonight to blow around the fresh snow resulting in very slippery road conditions despite no new snow falling for several hours at this point, with the area-wide 511 map showing ice/snow covered roadways. With winds continuing through the late morning, we should expect a fairly slick morning commute as the single digit temperatures coupled with vehicles driving on blowing snow results in a thin layer of ice underneath any fresh snow blowing on top. The good news is that a line of clearing is evident on satellite imagery across the western half of Minnesota, and once the sun rises we should see roads quickly become wet despite temperatures remaining cold due to the ever increasing sun angle. There is a small chance to squeeze out some cosmetic flurries today underneath the lingering stratus deck over eastern MN and western WI, but generally we should see no precipitation with cloud cover gradually eroding by the end of the day.

Even colder temperatures are expected tomorrow morning, however this time without the winds such that wind chills will be similar if not a bit warmer to this morning. Clouds return halfway through the day tomorrow as a quick moving wave will move across the area via an upper level jet streak and lower-mid level baroclinic zone, however this time being vertically oriented which will keep residence time short. A quick one to two inches of snow are possible with a high end of perhaps three to four inches, however there is significantly lower moisture with this wave on top of the much shorter duration compared to what just occurred due to the trajectory over the PAC NW and no access to Gulf moisture. As this wave moves through, the baroclinic zone pushing east will introduce WAA across the northern plains, resulting in warming temperatures into WEdnesday and for the rest of the week. The fresh snowpack will likely result in temperatures underachieving at first, with most guidance showing a slight warm bias due to the lack of snow cover before our last event that has yet to be accounted for. Cloud cover may also play a role, with overnight cloud cover/fog keeping temperatures just above freezing ensuring very efficient melting as long as we do not refreeze overnight. Temperatures at 925/850mb of 12-18C would usually support highs reaching 60s and/or 70s, however with the snow pack this will obviously be a bit lower. Snow melt should be fairly quick, especially considering March 20th is the Spring Equinox with our sun angle and hours of sun increasing even faster from that point onwards. Weather wise aside from the warm up we remain fairly quiet with the northern stream jet too far north to produce much in the way of cold weather systems, and a blocking ridge in the southwestern CONUS keeping any larger southern systems out of the area as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Observations this morning are generally showing higher visibility with less blowing snow across most of the area with the exception of far southern Minnesota where winds are stronger, however this is also outside of our TAF locations which are all generally 6sm or higher. We could see periods of intermittent lower visibility and MVFR mainly at MKT/EAU/RWF, however we should remain VFR the majority of the time through the first 6-12 hours of the TAF. Winds begin to weaken after 18z with gusts disappearing after 00z. There is a chance for some flurries from around 16-17z through 03z for all locations, however the chance was lower than even a prob30 so kept it out for now and went with some lower cloud decks instead.

KMSP...As was mentioned above, there is a window for some flurries during the late morning through the evening, generally non-impactful with visibility staying 6sm or higher. While we could see brief visibility below 6sm due to BLSN during the first 6-8 hours, the majority of the time we will remain VFR.
Skies are clearing gradually from west to east but we likely remain blocked by lower-mid level CIGS until they scatter out later in the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker- Renville-Scott-Sibley-Stevens-Swift.
Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Blue Earth-Brown-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice- Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Faribault- Freeborn-Martin.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Martin.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Rusk-St.
Croix.