Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arcadia, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A deep mid-level troughing pattern continues to occupy the majority of the CONUS with its trough axis over the Central Plains. Rapidly deepening cyclogenesis will continue to move northeast directly through the Great Lakes region, spreading widespread heavy precipitation across the entire country east of the Mississippi. Ongoing warm air advection driven snowfall will progress northward this morning as a 50kt to 70kt low-level jet surges warm moist air into the Northwoods. Snowfall will switch to mixed precipitation and rainfall accompanied by some convection by Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Low pressure will begin to depart the region Monday morning, resulting in cold air wrapping around the cyclone and spreading widespread snow showers across Northern Michigan through Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the forecast period remains relatively benign compared to the first 72 hours, as the 500mb trough shifts its axis over the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday. Heights will slowly rise thanks to ridging that builds over the Southwest, pushing cold cP air north of Michigan. Temperatures will slowly climb through the second half of the week, eventually observing highs near climatological norms for March. Only precipitation chances will be from waves of energy riding along constant isopleths, but no widespread or heavy impactful weather is expected besides the today/Monday system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Major winter storm system continues to impact Northern Michigan today through Monday night. Significant snow, sleet and freezing rain are accompanied by strong winds to deliver disruptions to local infrastructure...

Today/Tonight: Snowfall will continue to pivot north this morning as ongoing warm-air advection eventually introduces mixed precipitation to the region. Snowfall totals for the first wave favor the M-32 corridor northward. Heavy, prolonged snowfall rates between 1 to 3 inches per hour will persist today north of the Bridge resulting in totals of 10 to 24" by tonight. The highest uncertainty for this event by far remains how far north the warm sector will actually push this afternoon/evening, determining where exactly the line of mixed precipitation and freezing rain will occur. Latest CAM guidance continues to depict a deeper trough with a stronger warm- air advection component, leading to mixed precipitation trending north towards the Straits. Highest icing is expected to favor a swath between Grand Traverse Bay to Cheboygan/Presque Isle counties with accumulations for most areas between 0.25-0.50". That being said, it is not out of the realm for high-res guidance to push said warm air too far north as they struggle to resolve shallow cold layers. Potential remains for a significant icing event with totals over a half inch to develop south of the aforementioned line.
Watching to see if surface temperatures climb above freezing across Northern Lower today will be a critical factor in pinpointing where the highest impacts occur.

Monday/Monday Night: The cyclone center will be positioned directly over Northern Lower Monday morning, which will lead to a brief period of light precipitation and weaker pressure gradient force winds compared to GRR and MQT CWAs. Cold air on the backside of the system will begin to spread snowfall across the entire CWA from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Additional snowfall favors the classic northwest-flow snowbelts, with the highest probabilities remaining between 2-6 inches, including locally higher amounts near Whitefish Point. The remainder of the areas across the CWA can expect only an additional inch or less.

-Periods of light precipitation expected to continue beyond Tuesday with temperatures gradually climbing back to climatological norms for mid-March...Tuesday will observe the coldest temperatures through the entire forecast period with highs in the teens to low 20s as the previously mentioned trough axis is positioned directly over the Great Lakes region.
Heights will begin to rise as this trough shifts eastward, supporting a gradual increase in temperatures through the rest of the week. Only precipitation expected after Tuesday will be from embedded energy waves tracking snow across the region this Wednesday followed by a round of light rainfall early Friday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 631 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Deteriorating condtions across northern MI early this morning with most terminals at LIFR/IFR CIGs /VSBYs. CIU/PLN most likely to see persistent LIFR conditions in moderate to heavy snow and BLSN (with some mixed precip) for the vast majority of the TAF period. While some uncertainty still exists at mbL/TVC/APN with respect to precip types this afternoon through tonight, chances exist for an icy wintry mix as early as midday, potentially lasting through tonight, although temperatures later this afternoon and evening may warm just enough to result in plain rain at times.

Easterly winds today, gusty at times. Winds become more chaotic tonight as low pressure passes overhead, but eventually trend out of the northwest late in the TAF period, and especially beyond into the daytime hours on Monday -- remaining gusty.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ016>018- 020>022-099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ023>030.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ031>036-041-042.
Blizzard Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ086-087-095-096.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ088-097-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.