DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Another round of early morning low stratus is spreading across central and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with clear skies for the western half of the CWA Further northwest, thunderstorms are ongoing across the Dakotas and far northern Minnesota along a stalled front. This activity will remain well to our north during the day today, with hot, humid, and breezy conditions expected to expand further east into western Wisconsin. Overall cloud cover and smoke aloft should be less prevalent today than yesterday, but we still look to fall short of heat advisory criteria. The 25-30 MPH southerly wind gusts should make things feel a bit more tolerable as well, but WBGT values may approach the mid 80s (mod/high).

As we head into the overnight hours, our first chances of precip begin to creep in as the stalled front in the Dakotas begins to make some eastward progress. With the influence of the nocturnal LLJ, western Minnesota may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms by early Sunday morning, but the bulk of the activity will arrive sometime Sunday afternoon/evening.
Unfortunately, confidence has lowered somewhat in regards to the timing/placement of thunderstorms and locally heavy rain as there seems to have been a noticeable shift south over the last 12-24 hours. In any case, looking at the severe weather potential, we will have plenty of moisture and instability to work with, but our shear will be minimal. Coverage of the showers/thunderstorms will likely start out more scattered across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota before growing upscale overnight through early Monday as it works into western Wisconsin.

Once the front clears the CWA sometime Monday afternoon, we’ll see seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures continue as we head into the beginning of August with dew points remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s. Our next chance for precip will arrive sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday as a shortwave approaches from the west. There is some disagreement in the evolution of the wave beyond Thursday, with the Euro wanting to hang on to an upper low over the western Great Lakes while the GFS is more progressive with ridging building in to end the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

It's a muggy morning to start this TAF period with low stratus over eastern MN and western WI, with a smattering of MVFR vsbys to the west of the stratus in haze. We'll have breezy south winds today, which will help to mix the lower vis and cigs out by noon. TS activity today/tonight will remain closer the slow moving cold front over northwest and north central MN.

KMSP...Expect persistent wind gusts today out of the south up in the 24-28kt range. MSP will be near the edge of the stratus deck this morning, but will likely remain on the outside looking in (not the case for airfields in the east metro). After this morning, it will be VFR the rest of the way.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. -TSRA likely late. Wind S 10G20 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind W/NW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.



MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.