Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baileys Harbor, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Today...
A lull in the active weather is possible for the early to mid morning period as forcing associated with the warm air advection subsides. Still, some drizzle will fill at times as soundings suggest plenty of saturation through the lowest levels, which remains in line with recent surface observations. Freezing drizzle does remain in the forecast for this period as result with probability of a glaze still staying around 50-70%, but the overall impacts may be limited as road temperature observations suggest they have remained just above freezing. Still, will keep headlines for the morning period as temperatures may still drop a couple of degrees and elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees, and possibly some sidewalks may still be vulnerable to icing. Snow will return from west to east in the mid to late morning hours as the upper trough rolls through the region which will bring some additional snow to many areas. The highest impacts will be across north-central Wisconsin, where an additional 1-3 inches seems likely before snow departs in the afternoon. The second round may again bring a very brief freezing precipitation threat in the mid to late morning, but overall temperature profiles suggest a changeover to predominantly snow.

Thursday Night into Friday...
Attention then turns to the next wintry system that lies in store for the region. A strong mid-level trough and amplified surface wave will bring another period of precipitation to the region starting Thursday evening. This will be a fast moving system, with precipitation exiting by Friday afternoon. The most intense snowfall will likely be associated with the upper trough overnight in the hours around midnight and could see snowfall rates briefly approach an inch an hour for a couple hours.
Therefore confidence in snow totals of at least 6 inches is growing, with probabilistic showing around 40-60% for areas north of a line from Merrill and Marinette. Further south, a relatively warm temperature profile suggests a wetter snow with a lower SLR and also that rain will mid in at times once you get into portions of central and east-central Wisconsin. Thus a sharp gradient between the higher snow totals and relatively low ones seems likely, which will also make this system sensitive to any north/south shifts in the forecast. Winds will further complicate the forecast with ensemble probabilities retaining around 50% to 70% chance of at least 35 mph wind gusts at times. All together, winter weather impacts are becoming likely (50-80% via WSO), especially across northern Wisconsin where the snow confidence is higher.

Weekend System...
A third round of winter weather will be possible over the weekend as another mid-level trough crosses the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Long range guidance is in relatively good agreement that this system will bring impactful winter weather to areas around the Great Lakes, with higher snowfall driven by high PWATs, ample upper forcing, and gusty winds. What is not in agreement remains the details of the storm track (i.e. the who gets what) driven mainly be disagreements in the amplitude of the wave and overall storm track of the resulting low. Additional details will be refined over the coming days as we get better sampling on the upstream system, but do keep an eye on the forecast if you plan on traveling in the region this weekend.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Flying conditions will continue to deteriorate late this evening, dropping to MVFR/IFR. A band of snow will continue to impact areas north of RHI. As the initial band of rain showers pushes north, a period of lighter precip, including some drizzle and freezing drizzle, along with a lulls in the precip for some, is expected late this evening. The precip will fill back in and the rain and wintry mix will slowly change over to snow from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning. Highest snow accumulations will be across north-central WI, with a glazing of ice expected across much of central and eastern WI. Conditions will improve from west to east Wednesday afternoon.

Northeast winds will remain gusty overnight, especially near the Bay and Lake Michigan, where gust to around 30 kts will continue.
Winds will slowly shift to the north then northwest on Wednesday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ005- 010>012.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ013- 018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.