Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Petoskey, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

An upper level short wave is just reaching northern MI this morning, brining a deeply moist Gulf airmass with it. A cluster of showers with a few lightning strikes embedded within is moving northward over the central west coast of the L.P. this morning. Patchy fog is being seen over parts of NW lower as well. The 00z KAPX RAOB shows 1.27" PWATs (which was just the start of the deep moisture advection) with a drier layer near the surface. By now, the lower levels have become saturated, which points to somewhat efficient warm rain processes from the sounding with this extrapolation. Evidence of this is seen in intial rain guage reports, with up to 0.5" per hour clocked at the Baldwin RAWs site. Other sites around Manistee county have seen a quarter of an inch per hour rates with this initial precipitation. Showers/storms are moving, however some training is possible over the central western coast of MI towards Grand Traverse Bay through mid morning as the upper wave becomes more negatively tilted over WI.

During this time, the lower level cyclone and upper short wave will deepen, which will enhance forcing features and likely result in more widespread light stratiform rain (especially with the deep moisture that will be present) moving across northern MI this morning and reaching the sunrise side by mid day.
Embedded scattered convection will be seen as well, as some instability will exist (~500 SBCAPE), resulting in mostly heavier rain and some lightning. Efficient warm rain processes will continue as the warm cloud layer reaches up to 14 kft.
Widespread 50% or greater neighborhood probabilities of at least half of an inch by midnight tonight, with pockets within that area of similar probabilities for greater than 1". Low end probabilities exist for greater than 2". Multiple rounds of rain over the next 24 hours could align in an isolated spot or two to produce this. Localized ponding of water and flooding in low lying areas remain possible in these spots.

Surface dewpoints will be in the high 60s to low 70s with temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. It might not reach to the levels of suppressing heat, however it will feel muggy and humid outside today.

Tonight, a warm and wet airmass will move in on the heels of the upper trough exiting. Confidence is growing for widespread fog under this airmass, with non-zero chances for some light drizzle along the coastal spots of Lk MI and in the higher hills. It will take longer time to lift and scatter this fog/stratus Wednesday morning. Due to the warm and wet airmass, widespread moderate HeatRisk is forecasted for Wednesday afternoon south of the bridge, however cloud cover will work to curb major heat concerns. That is not to say it won't feel hot, as temperatures will likely still reach well into the 80s with Tds in the high 60s to low 70s.

In the upper levels, an upper closed low will move over the northern Rockies Wednesday, which will generate a series of disturbances down stream. The propagation downstream of these upper waves will largely be dependent on convection over the northern plains. With that said, intial CAM runs do somewhat align with the idea of convection budding over WI and moving towards MI Wednesday evening/night.
Again, the placement of this convection depends on activity today.
Hot and humid air will continue into Thursday as the upper closed low moves over the northern plains. Another wave of widespread convection could reach into northern MI Thursday night into Friday as the upper closed low finally progresses.

With the last two rounds of widespread convection overnight, slight chances exist for severe storms. The main hazards at this time look to be heavy rain and damaging winds from the strongest storms. Hail could come into play near the end of the week if that round materializes.

Temperatures cool to below normal for the weekend with drier weather returning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1159 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions gradually deteriorating through MVFR and IFR through the day Tuesday.

SHRA and TSRA possible with temporary reductions in flight categories possible through tonight at TVC and mbL. SHRA chances increase at the other TAF sites around or just after daybreak Tuesday. Temporary reductions in flight categories possible at these sites as well in the event +RA or a rogue storm passes over the TAF site. SHRA / TSRA coverage to reduces in the afternoon, but lingering low level moisture will produce plentiful BR and perhaps FG to close out the forecast period...
with largely MVFR to IFR conditions by Tuesday evening...
eventually deteriorating further to LIFR in most TAF sites after 00z Wednesday, largely CIG driven.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.