NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 350 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Numerous showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 031949 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Another Mild Night

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal.

Clear skies will give way to increasing high cloudiness late tonight as high pressure slowly departs to the east and low pressure over the northern Plains edges a bit closer. Lows tonight will actually be above what you would normally expect for highs in early October with temperatures only expected to drop into the low and mid 60s for the most part (could see a couple of upper 50s in the Au Sable River Valley).

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now... turning breezy on Wednesday, cold front passes through overnight into Thursday bringing a return to reality in the temperature department, along with showers and an outside shot at some thunder.

Pattern Synopsis: Ridging will be in the process of breaking down through the day on Wednesday as a shortwave crests the ridge from Minnesota to north of Lake Superior. An attendant surface cold frontal boundary will move into Lake Michigan, with cyclonic induced southerly flow bringing about an increase in moisture amid a continued warm air advection regime. As sfc low pressure gets closer, a pinched pressure gradient will lead to better momentum transfer from aloft to the surface through the day Wednesday, increasing winds at the surface. This front will slowly pass through northern Michigan Wednesday night as it largely becomes stretched out and forcing becomes weaker, but continues to provide a subtle focus for saturation. In the wake of the cold front comes a cooler airmass for Thursday, followed by a deeper and much more defined cold front Friday night. This will set the stage for additional atmospheric saturation and blustery conditions as colder air surges into the upper Great Lakes through the day Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: How widespread and intense any rain is Wednesday night into Thursday.

Well folks, rain potential has trended markedly less impressive for Wednesday evening into Thursday. Overall weak forcing from the decaying frontal boundary looks to struggle to overcome the influences of a low level dry layer. With moisture aloft remaining elevated, cloud cover will limit the development of instability across the region, despite surface temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s (at this point, purely driven by strong cyclonic warm air advection, which will feature sustained winds of 10-20mph, with occasional gusts to 30-35mph). Cloud cover likely keeps things cooler in the western half of the CWA, while NE lower probably makes a run at potentially reaching the upper 80s again (esp. in downsloping areas). Most of the day will be spent dry before showers begin to become possible in the western half of the CWA some time around or just before 21z Wednesday. This activity will slowly spread east through the overnight hours, with some rumbles of thunder unlikely but not ruled out. Enough of a transient storm motion is expected so that flooding concerns will be mitigated... as a matter of fact, there is a chance that some places may not even see some rain. Most places that see rain probably are limited to 0.25-0.50" of rain at most. Activity will carry into Thursday (primarily favoring the Saginaw Bay region) as the front largely stalls across mid Michigan. The remainder of the CWA remains mainly dry with perhaps some passing showers through the day. Cooler and breezy conditions are expected Thursday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another front will pass through Thursday night into Friday, ushering in the significantly colder airmass that will move in for the weekend. Friday will be spent in "no man's land"...
with perhaps the occasional shower, but realistically, more dry than not given an overall lack of forcing and lack of lake effect instability. Cold air advection will stunt highs into the 50s and 60s for Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now. Lake effect machine may need jumper cables, but is expected to fire as cold core of air passes through Great Lakes.

The aforementioned stronger cold front will blast through northern Michigan Friday night into Saturday, increasing shower chances with its passage. In addition to the frontal precipitation, the airmass will become plenty cold enough to generate lake effect instability in its wake as synoptic moisture is slow to exit as a well defined trough axis passes through the Great Lakes. As of now, precipitation this weekend looks to be rain given the "mild" nature of the airmass with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the upper 30s (plus, there's not enough cold aloft to really activate dendritic growth...
The damp and blustery pattern holds through the weekend as the trough remains overhead. Looking beyond the weekend, guidance is trying to develop a frontal wave into a larger system over the eastern Great Lakes, which would reinforce cyclonic flow across the region, and potentially continue unsettled conditions into the new week.

Normal highs: 57-64 Normal lows: 37-44

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

High pressure will slide off to our southeast through tonight.
Attention then turns to low pressure and an associated cold front approaching from the northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Fairly light southerly winds through tonight are expected to become gusty Wednesday. LLWS is expected to develop late tonight at some taf sites. Cigs/vsbys are expected to be VFR through the taf period.



MARINE
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Southerly breezes continue into Wednesday, before an initial cold front veers winds to southwest Wednesday night. Winds/waves to remain below advisory criteria thru tonight. On Wednesday, the long southerly fetch on Lake MI is expected to result in winds/waves reaching advisory levels there (especially toward the north tip of the lake). As a result, issued small craft advisories for much of Lake Michigan. Southwest winds late Wednesday night into Thursday are expected to be just under advisory level.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Gaylord, MI,